Is Jimmy Rollins a Hall of Famer? 4 voters weigh in...

By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor

You can't write the story of baseball in the first decade-and-a-half of the 21st century without mentioning Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Whether you can write the story of the history of the sport without Rollins or not will be something that Hall of Fame voters are forced to wrestle with for the next decade-and-a-half.

According to Baseball Reference, the average career bWAR for a Hall of Fame shortstop is 66.7 – Rollins has a 46.0. The average WAR-7, which measures a player's peak seven years, is 42.8 – Rollins has a 32.4. And the average JAWS – which, in an oversimplified world, is an advanced statistic used to compare candidates to those already in the Hall of Fame - is 54.8 – Rollins has a 39.2

From a more traditional perspective, Rollins won the 2007 National League MVP, made three All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves, is the Phillies franchise leader in hits, is one of four members of the 20-20-20-20 club and had a 38-game hitting streak between the 2005 and 2006 seasons. He also, of course, was a key member of the Phillies teams that won five consecutive division titles, two pennants and a World Series between 2007 and 2011.

With Rollins' Hall of Fame case in mind, four Hall of Fame voters were asked their thoughts on Rollins' Hall of Fame chances. Here's what they had to say:

Andrew Baggarly, The Athletic

I'm not sure how I might evaluate Rollins when the time comes, but he certainly merits more than a cursory examination.

Without taking a deep dive, I think I can venture to say that he and Chase Utley probably have the strongest Hall of Fame credentials of the position players that were part of the Phillies teams that won five consecutive division championships. The older guard will value Rollins' MVP and the Gold Gloves/All-Star appearances. The newer guard will point to a relatively low on-base percentage and, as a result, an OPS that didn't crack .800.

My guess is that Rollins will have enough support to stay on the ballot, perhaps for all 10 years of his eligibility, and he'll be a solid case for the Veterans Committee. But he's a long-shot to reach the 75 percent needed for election. Alan Trammell had better numbers across the board and he didn't get to 50 percent (he was eventually elected by the Modern Era baseball committee). Barry Larkin's rate stats were even better, and it took him a couple ballots to be elected. On the surface, it seems to me that Rollins made just as important a mark on his era as Larkin did. With his average and on-base percentage, though, he would have had to be a compiler to get in, meaning he would have needed to reach some benchmark numbers like 3,000 hits.

It's too bad Rollins couldn't maintain for another couple seasons to achieve that, but time comes for us all.

Anyway, I can't say how I will vote when the time comes since I value the five-year gap to allow perceptions to be altered. But that's a prediction of how it might go for him.

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Danny Knobler, Bleacher Report

I've always been a Jimmy Rollins fan, and I enjoyed watching him on TBS during the postseason.

As for the Hall of Fame, I think he's going to be one of those borderline guys who will get some votes but may struggle to get in. I don't make determinations on my vote until a guy is on the ballot. There are some guys where it's so obvious there's no doubt they are worthy of induction (Mariano Rivera, for example). Jimmy isn't one of those guys, but he's also not one you dismiss out of hand. He had a career worthy of a long look, and we'll see how it turns out once he's on the ballot.

Jimmy Rollins bats during an June 2015 game against Buster Posey and the San Francisco Giants. (Kevin Durso/SportsTalkPhilly)

Jayson Stark, The Athletic

I’m still not convinced Jimmy Rollins is a sure-thing, book-your-Cooperstown-reservation-right-now Hall of Famer. But I’m convinced of one thing: you can’t find a single shortstop in history who did all the stuff he’s done. Here goes:

He finished with 470 stolen bases and 231 home runs. And how many other shortstops in history are in the 400-200 Club? Not one.

He also ended his career with 2,455 hits. How many players in history had that many hits and that many home runs while playing shortstop? Exactly two: Derek Jeter and Cal Ripken Jr. – two of the most slam-dunk Hall of Famers of modern times.

Now let’s add in defense. Rollins also won four Gold Gloves. And while there are going to be voters who say the metrics tell us he shouldn’t have won those Gold Gloves, here’s the deal. Only four other shortstops in history had as many hits and Gold Gloves as this guy: Jeter, Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio and Omar Vizquel. Is it OK to mention that Rollins hit more home runs than Ozzie, Aparicio and Vizquel combined?

And then there’s all the other stuff:

One of just six shortstops in the last 40 years to win an MVP award.
More extra-base hits (857) as a shortstop than anyone except Ripken and Jeter.
More hits than any player in the history of the Phillies, a franchise that has existed for 135 seasons.
Had the longest hitting streak (38 games) of the last quarter-century.
One of four players who ever lived with a 20-homer, 20-steal, 20-double, 20-triple season.
Stayed healthy enough to play at least 140 games in 12 different seasons, a total reached in the last 40 years by only four other shortstops: Jeter, Ozzie, Vizquel and Ripken
Started an All Star Game.
Led his league in runs, steals and triples.

You can find a few shortstops who did some of that. You can’t find any other shortstop who has done all of it. So what are we supposed to make of that?

Remember, merely being a unique player doesn’t make you a Hall of Famer. And Rollins’ Wins Above Replacement totals (46.0) certainly don’t scream “Hall of Famer,” even though five Hall of Fame shortstops rank below him on that list.

Among the shortstops who rank above him: Jim Fregosi (48.7), Bert Campaneris (53.0) and Miguel Tejada (46.9). And the Alan Trammell Fan Club will be happy to remind you that Trammell (70.4) crushes Rollins in Wins Above Replacement.

But one thing I’ve learned, as a longtime Hall voter, is that we shouldn’t be looking at any one metric when we cast these votes. Not WAR. Not OPS-Plus.

I’ll admit I loved watching Jimmy for more than a decade and a half. I saw his entire career, and I’m still not sure he’s a Hall of Famer. But when a guy has had himself a career unlike that of any other player who ever played his position, he has assembled a compelling case for himself. I look forward to assessing it one more time when that 2022 Hall of Fame ballot arrives in my mailbox.

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Kevin Cooney

As of right now, I would vote for him. It is easy to compare him to Barry Larkin in my mind. He was probably a better fielder than Larkin, to be honest. His prime offensive years are good enough to warrant serious consideration. Do I think he will get in? 75 percent is a big threshold to get. Of the Phillies of that era, I think he is the one that gets closest.

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For what it is worth, among others who were asked to comment for the story, Dan Shaughnessy of The Boston Globe told SportsTalkPhilly.com that he doesn't expect to vote for Rollins when he becomes eligible for Hall of Fame consideration. Joel Sherman of The New York Post and Jeff Fletcher of Southern California News Group politely declined to comment for the story.

As Stark noted, if we assume that Rollins' career is over, he will become eligible for the ballot in 2022. In the meantime, Omar Vizquel is eligible for the first time in 2018 and how his case progresses will be interesting to monitor with Rollins in mind. What we do know is that once Rollins becomes eligible, he's likely to be on the ballot for some time. Whether he finishes his run on the ballot with a speech at Cooperstown or just a plaque on the Phillies Wall of Fame remains to be seen.