By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor
The Philadelphia Phillies will open their 2017 regular season Monday, marking one of the key dates on the MLB calendar. As a team that's still rebuilding, another date, the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, holds great importance as well. Here's an extremely early look at what players general manager Matt Klentak could end up trading this summer.
Jeremy Hellickson
According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, the Phillies had agreed to a deal last summer that would have sent Hellickson to the Miami Marlins, but the deal fell through in a complicated series of events involving Colin Rea and the San Diego Padres.
The Phillies didn't need to trade Hellickson at the 2016 non-waiver trade deadline. By keeping him, they allowed him to eat innings for two more months and were in a win/win situation for the offseason. Klentak probably would have preferred that Hellickson left in free-agency, which would have allowed the Phillies to either collect a first round or compensatory draft pick. But by accepting the qualifying offer, the Phillies got to keep Hellickson for another season and can try to move him again this summer.
If you had to draw up a list of the players most likely to be moved this summer, Hellickson would be one of the first names mentioned. Under the new qualifying offer system, which is explained more in-depth here, the Phillies can't offer Hellickson the qualifying offer for a second straight year.
So barring an extension, the Phillies are likely to deal Hellickson prior to the non-waiver trade deadline this year. The Phillies will be lucky if Hellickson is pitching as well around this trade deadline as he was during 2016.
Michael Saunders
The Phillies might not have one trade piece that fetches them a bounty this summer, but Saunders represents one of Klentak's offseason signings that could turn into a nice net gain at the deadline.
The Phillies do hold an $11 million club option on Saunders for 2017, so they don't necessarily have to trade him if they don't get any offers to their liking. The club could pick up his 2018 option after the 2017 season and look to move him, but given the amount of young outfielding talent in the organization, Saunders is likely just a one year piece with the Phillies. And given the awful second half that he had in 2016, if he's hot around the deadline, the Phillies probably will move him for the best available offer.
Freddy Galvis
Galvis' future with the Phillies isn't exactly clear. He's a tremendous fielder with versatility and though he doesn't hit for a high average or post high on-base percentages, his fielding versatility and pop could make him extremely valuable to a contender.
The Phillies value Galvis fairly highly, but top prospect J.P. Crawford is eventually going to be given a chance to be the team's everyday shortstop. The guess here is that the Phillies would prefer Galvis to move to second base and take over a bulk of Cesar Hernandez's playing time, but if Hernandez hits the way that he did in 2016 and his baseball instincts improve, that's going to be a hard sell.
Second base prospects Jesmuel Valentin and Scott Kingery also appear likely to be ready to play at the Major League level soon.
Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports noted last year that Klentak was willing to listen on Galvis — of course he was — so the idea of a contender becoming interested in Galvis as a super-utility player and paying a price that would appease the Phillies isn't out of the question.
The Phillies could choose to keep Galvis in hopes of him being a super-utility player on their next playoff contending team, but he's a free-agent after the 2018 season, so it's unclear if his timeline will match up with that of the team he's spent his entire career with.
Howie Kendrick
The Phillies added Kendrick for two reasons: to give their lineup a 'professional hitter,' something Pete Mackanin asked for after 2016, and to give themselves another trade candidate.
From April to July, Kendrick will not only assist in taking pressure off of Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, but he will give a young lineup a veteran presence to learn from.
He is in the final year of his contract, however, and the Phillies are crowded with both outfielding and middle infield talent.
He will be 34 just prior to the trade deadline, but given his versatility in the field, he should have multiple suitors in late July, as long as his bat doesn't decline.
Clay Buchholz
Buchholz isn't as good of a bet to move as Hellickson, but he's pretty likely to be traded at the deadline if he's pitching well. Him pitching well and him staying healthy are far from certainties, however.
Hoping for Buchholz to pitch as well as he did in say, 2013, is probably asking for too much. But if he pitches like how he did in 2015, there will be a market for his services.
There is a possibility that if Hellickson is dealt and the Phillies are forced to limit the innings of some of their young starters that Buchholz will be kept through the end of the season just because the Phillies will need someone to eat innings. This possibility will become much more likely if Buchholz is healthy but not pitching at a level that makes him especially interesting to contenders.
The Nuggets
- It's a near guarantee that the Phillies will sell off at least some of their bullpen this summer. Jeanmar Gomez, Pat Neshek and Joaquin Benoit are all in the final years of guaranteed contracts. Hector Neris can't become a free-agent until after 2021 and could conceivably be the team's long-term closer or set-up man, so it would take a higher price to get him. It's worth noting that both Neris and Gomez had extremely heavy workloads in 2016, so if either is pitching really well this year, the Phillies may be smart to cash in.
- The Phillies reportedly believed Andres Blanco would have fetched a return at the trade deadline last year before he fractured his left index finger in the leadup to the non-waiver trade deadline. He's a good bet to be dealt to a contender this year, but don't expect much of a return.
- While Odubel Herrera's long-term extension this offseason likely means he's going to be the team's center fielder for some time to come, it also made him a more attractive trade piece. The team also reportedly 'floated' his name at the MLB Winter Meetings before the extension. Don't expect a trade of Herrera in the next couple of years, but don't be shocked if one happens.
- Jerad Eickhoff is a young controllable starter that could be an interesting trade piece for a smaller market contender that wants to add a third or fourth starter for the playoffs. The Phillies would be unlikely to move him, but of course would listen to offers on Eickhoff, who will turn 27 shortly before the trade deadline.
- Cameron Rupp is someone that the Phillies would listen on. If Andrew Knapp is playing well, along with Jorge Alfaro playing well at Triple-A, the Phillies may look to capitalize on Rupp if he's hitting like he did in 2016.
- If the Phillies surprise and do contend, I would expect the team to stand pat for the most part at the deadline. Perhaps they would make a short-term move like adding a rental outfielder, but they could also call up Nick Williams or one of the many outfielders at the higher levels of their system. They aren't going to do anything to complicate their ability to add free-agents in the next few offseasons in the name of competing in a year that they aren't expected to compete in.