Phillies Roundtable: Will Maikel Franco hit over 30 home runs in 2017?

Tim Kelly

March 14 2017

(Frank Klose/Sports Talk Philly)

By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor

A season ago, Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco appeared prime for a breakout season, after an extremely impressive 80-game stint in 2015 and a nine home run Spring Training. Charlie Manuel, the winningest manager in club history, went as far as saying Franco could 'definitely' have a 30 home run, 100 RBI season.

Instead of a breakout season, Franco regressed in some aspects, slashing .255/.306/.427, a year after slashing .280/.343/.497 in nearly half of a season. He did hit 25 home runs and drive in 88 runs, but didn't seem disciplined in his swing and despite demonstrating the ability to do it on a few instances, he never seemed comfortable hitting balls to the opposite field.

The Phillies fired former hitting coach Steve Henderson within hours of the season ending, and inserted former playoff hero Matt Stairs into the role, after he spent much of the 2016 season pointing out the aforementioned holes in Franco's game as a broadcaster.

It's hard to determine exactly what statistical success for Franco would look like in 2017, but an increased home run total would probably go hand-in-hand with fixing some of his bad habits. We asked a few of our Sports Talk Philly staffers how many home runs they think Franco will hit in 2017, and set the over/under at 30. Here's how they responded:

Jesse Larch, Sports Talk Philly Staff Writer

Over/Under: Over

I think Franco will finish over 30 home runs. I see the emergence of Tommy Joseph (HR/15 at-bats last season) and the additions of Kendrick and Saunders as protection in the lineup as major reasons why this will happen.

Saunders is a bat with pop, which will cause a similar effect that Jayson Werth did for Ryan Howard. Pitchers will not be able to get around Franco with Saunders and Joseph following him in the order, while the top of the order with Herrera, Hernandez, and Kendrick should put extra pressure on pitchers, as all three post high on-base percentages.

The other key is Matt Stairs entering as the hitting coach. Although he's knew to this level as a coach, he was a professional hitter, and specialized in generating pop in minimal appearances. Stair's has also discussed exactly what he feels Franco needs to fix and a plan of attack for improving his approach at the plate.

Stairs's coaching and the improved lineup around him should give Franco his first 30 home run season.

Theo DeRosa, Sports Talk Philly Staff Writer

Over/Under: Under

Maikel Franco will hit under 30 home runs this year.

In 2016, he hit 25 in 581 at-bats, essentially a full season’s worth. I can’t see him improving too drastically in that regard. Franco struggled a bit in 2016, posting about a league-average triple-slash line of .255/.306/.427 for an OPS+ of 96 (league average is 100).

Often, Franco’s approach at the plate seemed to keep him cold for long stretches; he tended to over-swing and either whiff or make weak contact, particularly on pitches low and outside. However, Franco’s issue last year was certainly not his power — when he made good contact, the ball went a long way. He’s helped a bit by playing in home-run friendly Citizens Bank Park, which for hitting in general is actually a middle-of-the-road ballpark.

I see no reason for Franco’s home-run numbers to improve too drastically — I think he’ll improve from 2016’s power production to make a good run at 30 bombs, but won’t surpass the number. Predictions for Maikel Franco’s 2017: .261/.322/.442, 28 HR, 88 RBI

Matthew Shinkle, Sports Talk Philly Staff Writer

Over/Under: Over

Maikel Franco will hit more than 30 home runs this upcoming season – but just barely.

The 2017 season is very realistically a make or break season for Franco within the Phillies organization, with big free agents such as Manny Machado expected to be on the market within the next two years. He had flashes of greatness during his time in the majors in 2015 after playing 80 games, as well as this past season at certain points, however the organization still expects much more from him.

With Matt Stairs now in the dugout to help correct problems he saw from the booth this past year, and more protection surrounding him with Michael Saunders and Howie Kendrick in the lineup, Franco can hopefully jump to a more elite status within the category of third basemen in Major League Baseball. With how crowded the Phillies are at certain other positions, Franco needs a big season to cement himself as the long-term starting shortstop.