By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor
You can't write the story of baseball in the first decade-and-a-half of the 21st century without mentioning Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Whether you can write the story of the history of the sport without Rollins or not will be something that Hall of Fame voters are forced to wrestle with for the next decade-and-a-half.
According to Baseball Reference, the average career bWAR for a Hall of Fame shortstop is 66.7 – Rollins has a 46.0. The average WAR-7, which measures a player's peak seven years, is 42.8 – Rollins has a 32.4. And the average JAWS – which, in an oversimplified world, is an advanced statistic used to compare candidates to those already in the Hall of Fame - is 54.8 – Rollins has a 39.2
From a more traditional perspective, Rollins won the 2007 National League MVP, made three All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves, is the Phillies franchise leader in hits, is one of four members of the 20-20-20-20 club and had a 38-game hitting streak between the 2005 and 2006 seasons. He also, of course, was a key member of the Phillies teams that won five consecutive division titles, two pennants and a World Series between 2007 and 2011.
With Rollins' Hall of Fame case in mind, four Hall of Fame voters were asked their thoughts on Rollins' Hall of Fame chances. Here's what they had to say:
Danny Knobler, Bleacher Report
I've always been a Jimmy Rollins fan, and I enjoyed watching him on TBS during the postseason.
I’m still not convinced Jimmy Rollins is a sure-thing, book-your-Cooperstown-reservation-right-now Hall of Famer. But I’m convinced of one thing: you can’t find a single shortstop in history who did all the stuff he’s done. Here goes:
- He finished with 470 stolen bases and 231 home runs. And how many other shortstops in history are in the 400-200 Club? Not one.
- He also ended his career with 2,455 hits. How many players in history had that many hits and that many home runs while playing shortstop? Exactly two: Derek Jeter and Cal Ripken Jr. – two of the most slam-dunk Hall of Famers of modern times.
- Now let’s add in defense. Rollins also won four Gold Gloves. And while there are going to be voters who say the metrics tell us he shouldn’t have won those Gold Gloves, here’s the deal. Only four other shortstops in history had as many hits and Gold Gloves as this guy: Jeter, Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio and Omar Vizquel. Is it OK to mention that Rollins hit more home runs than Ozzie, Aparicio and Vizquel combined?
And then there’s all the other stuff:
- One of just six shortstops in the last 40 years to win an MVP award.
- More extra-base hits (857) as a shortstop than anyone except Ripken and Jeter.
- More hits than any player in the history of the Phillies, a franchise that has existed for 135 seasons.
- Had the longest hitting streak (38 games) of the last quarter-century.
- One of four players who ever lived with a 20-homer, 20-steal, 20-double, 20-triple season.
- Stayed healthy enough to play at least 140 games in 12 different seasons, a total reached in the last 40 years by only four other shortstops: Jeter, Ozzie, Vizquel and Ripken
- Started an All Star Game.
- Led his league in runs, steals and triples.
You can find a few shortstops who did some of that. You can’t find any other shortstop who has done all of it. So what are we supposed to make of that?
Remember, merely being a unique player doesn’t make you a Hall of Famer. And Rollins’ Wins Above Replacement totals (46.0) certainly don’t scream “Hall of Famer,” even though five Hall of Fame shortstops rank below him on that list.
Among the shortstops who rank above him: Jim Fregosi (48.7), Bert Campaneris (53.0) and Miguel Tejada (46.9). And the Alan Trammell Fan Club will be happy to remind you that Trammell (70.4) crushes Rollins in Wins Above Replacement.
But one thing I’ve learned, as a longtime Hall voter, is that we shouldn’t be looking at any one metric when we cast these votes. Not WAR. Not OPS-Plus.
I’ll admit I loved watching Jimmy for more than a decade and a half. I saw his entire career, and I’m still not sure he’s a Hall of Famer. But when a guy has had himself a career unlike that of any other player who ever played his position, he has assembled a compelling case for himself. I look forward to assessing it one more time when that 2022 Hall of Fame ballot arrives in my mailbox.