By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor
Some around the Philadelphia Phillies think general manager Matt Klentak decided not to have Pete Mackanin return for the 2018 season because the team's 36-38 second-half – which was led by Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Nola and Nick Williams, among other young talents – moved the timeline to return to contention up. They apparently aren't the only ones who feel that way.
An anonymous league scout told John Perrotto of FanRag Sports that he thinks whoever is managing the Phillies in 2018 has the chance to manage a potential playoff team:
“Whoever gets the job in Philly is walking into a good situation,” a scout from an AL team said. “They have a lot of really good young players who are ready to blossom. They are my sleeper pick to reach the playoffs next year.”
Barring an organizational collapse from the Washington Nationals, the Phillies probably aren't going to be competitive for the National League East title in 2018. But the Colorado Rockies won the second National League Wild Card with 87 wins in 2017, so that would be the type of mark that the Phillies would have to reach for to potentially make the playoffs in a year.
That would mean that the Phillies would need a more than 20-win improvement in 2018, as they finished 66-96 in 2017. With that said, the team that went 36-38 after the All-Star Break is much closer to the team that will be playing for the full 162 games in 2018. Sure, the league will adjust to Hoskins, Williams, Jorge Alfaro, J.P. Crawford and other young talents, but the lineup alone should be talented enough to push the Phillies closer to being a .500 team in 2018.
For the Phillies to push for the playoffs in 2018, their pitching, which posted a 4.55 ERA in 2017, would have to make a pretty drastic improvement.
Their bullpen, after getting strong second halves from Hector Neris, Edubray Ramos, Adam Morgan and Hoby Milner, may very well be better in 2018. It's less clear where those type of improvements will come from in the starting rotation.
Trending: Phillies will have No. 3 overall pick in 2018
Aaron Nola, who had a very strong summer, figures to be the team's Opening Day starter in 2018. If Jerad Eickhoff is healthy, it's reasonable to think he can bounce back to the form that he showed in 2016. But beyond that, the Phillies will need some external upgrades. There's been speculation that they may pursue free-agents Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb this offseason, as they have money to spend. I wrote that they should make a call on Toronto Blue Jays RHP Marcus Stroman, who would give them a legitimate one-two punch at the top of their rotation with Nola.
One way or another, the Phillies rotation would have to perform very differently in 2018 for them to be a playoff team.
In fairness to this scout, the Phillies wouldn't be the first team to make a rather drastic return to contention. The Minnesota Twins, who lost 103 games in 2016, will play in the American League Wild Card Game tonight. The Houston Astros won the second American League Wild Card in 2015 with 86 wins, a year after winning 70 games and two years after winning 51 games.
So, as J.P. said in "Angels in the Outfield," it could happen.