By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor 
Pat Neshek told MLB.com's Todd Zolecki this past week that he left money on the table to return to Philadelphia. Neshek did this after hinting that he would be interested in a return to Philadelphia if he ever got the chance when the Phillies traded him to the Colorado Rockies last July. Perhaps Neshek was so comfortable returning to Philadelphia not only because he had tremendous success in his brief time with the team, but also because he believes the team is closer to competing than the public does.
The well traveled 37-year-old, who was the team's lone All-Star representative in 2017, says the 2018 Phillies remind him of another team that he played on, one that reached the playoffs earlier than many expected they would.
"Last year was kind of messy, but I feel like we're way ahead of where Houston was [in 2015]," Neshek told MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince Saturday. "I know they have the money to add if we start winning. And the National League East isn't that great this year."
Castrovince pointed out that PECOTA projected the 2015 Astros to win 77 games, before the team won 86 and the American League's second Wild Card. PECOTA recently released their 2018 projections and predicted that the Phillies will go 78-84.
On one hand, the Phillies bullpen, on paper, is much deeper than the 2015 Astros bullpen. Though Will Harris and Tony Sipp had very strong regular seasons for the Astros in 2015, the Astros bullpen ran out of gas in the ALDS. The Astros had the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals on the ropes in Game 4 of the ALDS, before their bullpen allowed seven runs in the final two innings, costing them a chance to close out the Royals in four games. The Astros ultimately lost Game 5 of the ALDS, with their bullpen again struggling, ending their season.
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The Phillies added both Neshek and Tommy Hunter this offseason to a bullpen that was very good in the second half of the season. Hector Neris, Luis Garcia, Adam Morgan, Hoby Milner, Mark Leiter Jr. and Edubray Ramos could help make up one of the league's better bullpens.
Part of the reason general manager Matt Klentak has built what he hopes will be a dominant bullpen is that the team's rotation lacks stability. Aaron Nola, after a breakout 2017 season, will be the team's No. 1 starter. Given his history of health issues, one may be hesitant to have complete certainty in what the Phillies will get out of Nola, but there's obviously much more certainty in what the team will get out of Nola (and probably even Jerad Eickhoff) than Vince Velasquez (also on the 2015 Astros), Ben Lively, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin and the rest of the team's young arms.
The 2015 Astros, by comparison, had Dallas Keuchel, who won the American League Cy Young that season. Even the most pro-Nola projection isn't going to be better than the 20-8 record that Keuchel posted in 2015 with a 2.48 ERA (2.91 FIP) in 232 innings. Even beyond Keuchel, the 2015 Astros got very good production out of Collin McHugh, Lance McCullers and Scott Feldman. For the 2018 Phillies to push for a .500 record, let alone a playoff spot, they will need at least two pitchers beyond Nola and Eickhoff to have effective seasons.
The 2018 Phillies don't have any position players that project to be as good as Jose Altuve or Carlos Correa, but the team is understandably excited about Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, J.P. Crawford and Jorge Alfaro. That's on top of new addition Carlos Santana, the criminally-underrated Cesar Hernandez and 2016 All-Star Odubel Herrera. The 2018 Phillies lineup, in theory, shouldn't have as many holes as the home run-reliant 2015 Astros did, with players like Cris Carter, Luis Valbuena and Jason Castro each getting north of 375 at-bats.
In 2015, the Astros, who were just two seasons removed from going 51-111, actually played in a more competitive division than what the National League East projects to be in 2018. While the 2018 Washington Nationals will likely be better than any team was in the American League West in 2015, the Astros were one of three teams, joined by the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, who won over 85 games. The Nationals are the only team the aforementioned PECOTA projections think will have a winning record in the National League East in 2018. And the Miami Marlins, after an offseason firesale, could be significantly worse than the 2015 Oakland Athletics, who went 68-94 and finished in last place in the American League West. So the Phillies division, along with what projects to be an easy early schedule, should work in their favor.
The guess here is that the 78-84 record that PECOTA projects for the Phillies in 2018 is right around the record that the team will ultimately post. But stranger things have happened, perhaps Neshek is on to something.
