By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor 
The Philadelphia Phillies have spent a franchise-record $169.25 million this offseason, including $75 million on 2015 National League Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. Will Arrieta help the Phillies to lure free-agents to Philadelphia next offseason?
Well, it's complicated.
Arrieta, assuming he doesn't completely fall off of a cliff, certainly doesn't hurt the Phillies chances of luring a superstar to Philadelphia next offseason. Signing him also signals to agents and free-agents alike that Phillies ownership is willing to spend to build a championship-caliber team. (Although the reputation of the Phillies around the league has remained strong: Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports wrote last summer that the Phillies are viewed as "a levithan-in-training.)
But Arrieta is 32, and has declined fairly rapidly over the past two seasons. It's entirely possible that he finds a second life to his career in Philadelphia. In that case, he can opt-out after the 2019 season. So while Arrieta may intrigue a potential free-agent, he's certainly not going to be a major factor in the decision that Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, the two prizes of next offseason's loaded free-agent class, make.
Had the Phillies traded for a piece like Toronto Blue Jays RHP Marcus Stroman, who won't turn 27 until May, they could have used that as a major part of their pitch to potential free-agents. Not only is Stroman one of the game's top arms now, but in theory, he could remain that for a majority or all of the tenure of Harper or Machado.
So why didn't the Phillies make a serious push for Stroman? Managing partner John Middleton told Mike Sielski of Philly.com in December that the price for Gerrit Cole and Chris Archer was "an arm and a leg." Cole, formerly of the Pittsburgh Pirates, was ultimately traded to the defending World Series champion Houston Astros. Archer, who has an extremely team-friendly contract, is still with the Tampa Bay Rays, though it stands to reason that he could be a prize at this summer's non-waiver trade deadline. Both the Pirates and Rays were more motivated to move their arms than the Blue Jays are with Stroman. Stroman is a year younger than Cole and three years younger than Archer. Per Matt Gelb and Matt Breen, Stroman was one of the controllable starters that the Phillies inquired on this offseason. But to acquire Stroman, who has topped the 200 innings mark in consecutive seasons, the Phillies may have had to part with Scott Kingery or Sixto Sanchez. That, simply, wasn't going to happen.
But, I digress. The Phillies didn't trade for Stroman and Arrieta is already 32, so what else could their pitch center around?
Phillies Nuggets: Opening Day Lineup Projection 2.0
One school of thought suggests that whatever team is willing to spend the most to sign Harper, Machado and Josh Donaldson, among others, will land them. While there may be some truth to that, if the Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and other major market teams all make serious plays for at least one major free-agent next offseason, things may even out. Sure, the Phillies may be willing to offer the most money, but between differences in state income tax rates and the fact that $10 or $20 million is a rather minuscule amount when you are talking about $400 million (for Harper and Machado), there may be multiple teams with offers similar to the Phillies.
If money largely evens out on some of the biggest offers to Harper and Machado, among others, then how good the teams making said offers are will come into play. The Phillies have developed a talented young core at the major league level with Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, J.P. Crawford and Aaron Nola, among others. They would certainly benefit from having their first winning season since 2011 this year, especially if the charge is led by the aforementioned young core.
The problem is the Phillies won't be the only team that heads into free-agency with a talented young core. The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino. For the Dodgers, Walker Buehler will soon join Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager. The Cubs have Kris Bryant, Albert Almora Jr. and Ian Haap. The Red Sox have Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers. The Nationals have Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner, with Victor Robles likely to factor into the team's plans in 2018. You get the point.
The Phillies are also in the midst of upgrading Citizens Bank Park. SportsTalkPhilly.com reported in January that the Phillies are adding a wiffle ball field to Citizens Bank Park. Part of the team's two-year renovation plans, according to executive vice president Dave Buck, is turning left field into three decks, one of which will have a lounge-type field. Citizens Bank Park was already a beautiful stadium, but it will turn 15 in 2018, and the Phillies want to keep it as modern as possible. They also know that they will have to compete with Yankee Stadium, Wrigley Field and Fenway Park when trying to differentiate themselves among free-agent suitors.
A lot will factor into the decision's that next offseason's top free-agents make. Money, of course, will be one of those factors. How ready a team is to win will be another – especially for players like Donaldson or Charlie Blackmon, both of whom will be 32 when free-agency begins. The Phillies, with the addition of a top free-agent, will likely look like a team ready to make a playoff run, perhaps regardless of how Arrieta performs in 2018. From there, it will be up to Matt Klentak, Andy MacPhail and Middleton to sell a free-agent on why Philadelphia is a more ideal landing spot than New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago or Washington D.C. That may be the most difficult task facing the Phillies.
What Do The Insiders Say?
NBC Sports Philadelphia's Jim Salisbury on 97.5 The Fanatic with Harry Mayes and Jason Myrtetus:
"I hear that [the idea that signing free-agents now will make Phillies more attractive to future free-agents], and actually I disagree with it. You know why? It helps them win this year. I just think – you're obviously referring to to [Bryce] Harper and [Manny] Machado and [Josh] Donaldson and that crew – money is going to talk there. I think people around baseball know that the Phillies are an ascending team because of the foundation they are building. It probably does make them more attractive, but I don't think that's their goal in this."
Jayson Stark on Hittin' Season with John Stolnis on whether Scott Boras being both Arrieta and Bryce Harper's agent will give Phillies an advantage next offseason:
"[ESPN's] Buster [Olney] and I were hanging around on the field before the game that day, after the press conference, and it was hard not to notice how much time John Middleton and Scott Boras were spending with each other. They were inseparable for the good part of an hour. And, if you know how Scott works, he loves to connect with owners – go above GMs, go above front offices and make that appeal to the emotions of an owner that whose heart is racing at the thought of winning. You tell me whether you think that would describe John Middleton. I'm going to say yes. Now I don't think, to be honest with you, that Bryce Harper is the top name on their list, but could I see them signing Bryce Harper? Yeah, I could. And could I see Scott making that pitch to John Middleton after, say, Manny Machado decides to go elsewhere? I…could. It's something to watch."
Five Nuggets on the Phillies Schedule
- Since Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004, the Phillies have opened the season at Citizens Bank Park just seven times. The Phillies open the 2018 season in Atlanta, the second time since 2010 that they've opened the season in Atlanta. During that same time period, they've opened the season just two times at Citizens Bank Park.
- The 2017 Phillies were just 5-15 in Interleague games. Their interleague schedule this year is as follows: three games at Tampa Bay, two games at Baltimore, three games at Toronto, three games against the Yankees, two games vs. the Orioles, two games at Boston and three games at Toronto.
- The Phillies will play on the Pacific time zone 10 times this year: four times at Dodger Stadium in May; three times at at AT&T Park in June and three times at PETCO Park in August. Though many enjoy late night, summer games, not having to travel to the West Coast as much probably works in the Phillies favor. They played 15 games in the Pacific time zone in 2016.
- The Phillies played the Nationals 13 times in their first 36 games in 2017. This year, the Phillies play the Nationals "just" 10 times before the All-Star Break.
- As I wrote last month, the Phillies opponents in March/April had a lower weighted 2017 winning percentage than the team's opponents in any other month. That doesn't even take into account that the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates, two teams the Phillies will play in the first month of the season, figure to be significantly worse than they were in 2017.
The Nuggets
- Odubel Herrera is the Phillies leader in bWAR since the start of the 2016 season with 6.5. He narrowly edged out Cesar Hernandez, who has posted a 6.3 bWAR since the start of the 2016 season.
- Rhys Hoskins joined Anthony Gargano and Bob Cooney on 97.5 The Fanatic's morning show Friday, and spoke a bit about how he grew up as a fan of the San Francisco Giants. As you'll remember, Hoskins thrived against the Giants in 18 plate-appearances in 2017. Not only did he hit two home runs, but he walked five times and posted a 1.402 OPS.
- The Phillies put together just six hits in their 4-3 loss to the Minnesota Twins Sunday afternoon. Two of those hits belonged to Scott Kingery, who is now batting .378 this Spring Training. His 58 career major league Spring Training at-bats remain a small sample size, but boy, he's been impressive. Between Spring Training 2017 and 2018, Kingery is hitting .345 with five home runs and eight RBIs.
- Speaking of Kingery, Gabe Kapler's lineup Sunday saw him play third base and hit second behind Hernandez. That's a one-two punch that would combine for a ton of hits together, and set up the middle of the lineup, which presumably would include Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana, up extremely well.
- Jesmuel Valetin – son of Jose and nephew of Javier – may not be on the Phillies Opening Day roster. The 23-year-old, who the Phillies acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the August 2014 Roberto Hernandez trade, is on the team's 40-man roster, which works to his advantage. The problem for him is Roman Quinn already was on the 40-man roster, and Pedro Florimon was added last week. In any event, the 23-year-old is very likely to make his major league debut at some point during the 2018 season. The feeling here is that while Valentin will probably never be an everyday player, he has the chance to be an effective bench piece for some time to come.
- You get the feeling watching Jorge Alfaro behind the plate that there will be lots of growing pains. He has strong hands and a world-class arm, but remains very raw as an overall catcher. It will be interesting to see how he's able to push through any setbacks as a catcher, and whether those setbacks affect him as a hitter. He's going to hit for power, but he needs to continue to improve as a catcher and learn to work more walks at the plate. If he's able to do those things, he could develop into one of the National League's best catchers.
