The Flyers had $12 million available under the salary cap when free agency began on Friday, but really only about 25 percent of those funds available for free agents.
That’s because the Flyers biggest offseason move is still yet to come.
There is really no doubt that Brayden Schenn will remain a Flyer, especially after the Flyers extended a qualifying offer his way last week. But after posting career-best numbers offensively while making $2.5 million next season, what kind of raise will Schenn get?
Look no further than two deals made by the Florida Panthers this past weekend as the indicator.
The Panthers signed forward Vincent Trocheck to a six-year, $28.5 million deal and Reilly Smith to a five-year, $25 million deal. Trocheck’s deal has an average annual value of $4.75 million while Smith’s is an even $5 million. Schenn can literally expect to fall right in the middle.
At 24, and coming off a 26-goal season, Schenn has a lot of potential to continue growing in the next few years. What that likely means is a long-term deal from the Flyers at a competitive salary.
In simply ballparking it, I had five years and $26 million in mind, an average annual value of $5.2 million. Given the performance Schenn has displayed over his last contract, a two-year deal that started in 2014-15, it is a fair value.
In those two seasons, Schenn scored 44 goals and had 106 points.
Part of the reasoning has to do with the way the money was flying on the first day of free agency.
With so many high-priced deals going around — see Milan Lucic, Loui Eriksson and Kyle Okposo — Schenn’s new deal needs to reflect a similar increase. The end amount or average value may not be reflected of Schenn’s place among other NHLers in a similar place career-wise, but it should reflect the progress of moving into a leading role with the Flyers as a top-line player, top power-play unit member and one of the team’s leading scorers.
Another comparable contract situation is that of Schenn's teammate Jake Voracek. When the Flyers acquired Voracek in 2011, he had one year remaining on his current deal, worth $2.5 million. He scored 18 goals and had 49 points in 78 games.
Prior to the next season, Voracek signed a four-year, $17 million extension with a cap hit of $4.25 million. That set up a new extension one season ago for eight years, $66 million with a cap hit of $8.25 million, after Voracek scored 67 goals and had 189 points over the first three seasons of that contract.
Schenn is conceivably right in the middle of such a progression, coming off a season where his cap hit was $2.5 million and he posted career numbers and entering a season where he is due for a raise and higher expectations.
It makes a potential $5 million cap hit or more all the more reasonable.
As much as any team would like to put a ballpark figure on a contract, there is no way to know just what negotiations will bring — like news that Schenn filed for arbitration on Tuesday. In that sense, the Flyers were even more limited in free agency for that very reason. Not knowing what kind of deal Schenn would get forced them to leave as much space as possible to get a deal done.
The arbitration process holds little meaning. If nothing else, it puts a timeframe on something getting done, whether done through an arbitrator or, as is usually the case, the two sides reaching an agreement before a hearing ever takes place.
As July starts to progress, the time has come for a deal to get done. As GM Ron Hextall has assured, it will get done. The Flyers can not afford to part with one of their top goal-scorers from a season ago, especially one that has grown into a leading role with the team. And it will take an increased, but necessary, cost to do it.
Kevin Durso is managing editor for Flyerdelphia. Follow him on Twitter @Kevin_Durso.
