By: Tim Kelly, managing editor
It only took 29 games, but the Philadelphia Phillies appear to have changed the national discussion surrounding the team from the topic of tanking to them having a bright future, largely because of the success of their trio of young starters.
One league scout, who recently spoke to Albert Chen of Sports Illustrated, seemed impressed with the success that Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff and Aaron Nola have had, and caught off guard by how well the Phillies have played thus far this season.
“They’re building something there,” said a scout, who also noted that Mark Appel, the former No. 1 pick also included in the Giles deal, has a 1.64 ERA over four starts in Triple A Lehigh Valley and may join the Phillies' rotation at some point this summer. “I’ll be honest, they’re a lot better than I thought they’d be. The pitching is pretty darn good. They’re ahead of schedule. To me, they’re the surprise of the season.”
Appel is among a handful of young starters that the Phillies still have in their minor league system. Ben Lively, who the team acquired in the Marlon Byrd trade, was named to Baseball America's All-Prospect team for the first month of the season. Jake Thompson and Zach Eflin are among the team's other top pitching prospects who figure into the Phillies plans over the course of the next few years.
Even without those prospects, the Phillies appear to have three front of the line starters currently on their staff in Velasquez, Eickhoff and Nola, who currently have a combined 2.56 FIP (per Fangraphs). Velasquez, who currently has the fifth lowest ERA and is among the league leaders in WAR, seems to have tipped the Ken Giles trade in the Phillies' favor in a different scout's mind.
There’s no doubt Giles’s stuff is top shelf,” said the scout. “A guy like Kimbrel, early in his career, which Giles may very well be, doesn’t come along like that. And he’s going to be fine. There’s nothing that concerns me. But at the end of the day, this is still a 70-inning guy. And even if those are great 70 innings, if you look at the price for starting pitchers these days—Mike Leake getting $80 million, Jeff Samardzija getting $90 million—you wonder about giving up a guy like Velasquez, especially for a team that has some real issues in their rotation. Velasquez has top-shelf stuff. To me, he is a No. 2 starter, maybe better. And that is incredibly valuable in this market. And he’s 23.”
As the previous scout put it, if the Phillies continue to get elite production from their young starters, they really will be building something. And that doesn't take into account that Maikel Franco hasn't been particularly consistent at the plate yet this season, that the team still has Nick Williams and J.P. Crawford in their minor league system and that they own the No. 1 pick in next month's draft. The Phillies may not continue their success record-wise as 2016 goes on, but the early success may be a glimpse at some of the team's future potential.