Kate Frese/Flyerdelphia
With the Philadelphia Flyers season at an end, there are a variety of questions surrounding the future of many players. Possibly the most interesting fate revolves around defenseman Andrew MacDonald.
After losing de facto No. 1 defenseman Michael Del Zotto to a season-ending wrist injury in February, he was replaced by MacDonald.
Reviews of MacDonald’s NHL play were mixed. Some thought the 29-year-old defenseman helped stabilize the defense while others pointed out his mediocre neutral zone play.
In 28 games this season, MacDonald scored one goal, a crucial season saving one at that, added seven assists, accumulated a plus-10 rating and averaged slightly over 20 minutes a game. He also scored the game-winning goal in Game 4 against the Washington Capitals.
Those traditional stats, however, don’t tell the whole story concerning MacDonald’s criticisms and whether or not he belongs with the big club come next season.
Since re-joining the Flyers, MacDonald largely played with rookie sensation Shayne Gostisbehere. It made sense as they were paired up with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms at the beginning of the AHL season and had success together. The chemistry was there and head coach Dave Hakstol wasn’t flooded with many other options.
Yet, it looked like MacDonald was hindering his defensive partner’s production particularly before the playoffs.
Ghost Corsi Relative before paired with MacDonald: +1.8%. Corsi Rel after paired with MacDonald: -4.3%. Hmmmmmmm.https://t.co/0PzuKtzJmI
— Charlie O'Connor (@BSH_Charlie) March 25, 2016
Based on those numbers it appeared that the MacDonald and Gostisbehere marriage was a one-way street. In 21 games, the pairing had a Corsi For percentage of 48. At the time, MacDonald’s Corsi dipped marginally by 0.6 while Gostisbehere’s increased by 2.4 percent when they were apart.
However, at the conclusion of the season, the pairing’s Corsi increased by one percentage point and Gostisbehere saw his 2.4 increase away from MacDonald drop by one. In that time, MacDonald swung his Corsi from a -0.6 to a 0.4.
This is important because, by analytical terms, MacDonald turned his game around. His Corsi turnaround away from the rookie comes despite the fact that he started 53.4 percent of his five-on-five even strength shifts apart from Gostisbehere in the defensive zone. With Ghost, he saw just 26.6 percent of his shifts begin in the Flyers end.
With this improving play, MacDonald continued to be consistently paired with the potential Calder Trophy candidate which indicates Hakstol’s confidence in the blueliner. That conviction was likely strengthened because when MacDonald was paired with the young offensive defenseman he was more of a stay-at-home blueliner.
This meant he was free to concentrate on what he does best: block shots. MacDonald blocked 72 shots in the 28 games. Of those 72, he stopped 10 in just one night against Tampa Bay on March 11, which set a new career high. Those results would be enough to earn any head coach's trust, which is something that could work to MacDonald's favor come next training camp.
Yet, this is also where the dilemma of MacDonald reaches its apex. He blocks a lot of shots and makes some very good defensive reads and can make plays every so often, but that alone isn’t enough to undo his usually poor neutral zone play.
MacDonald's neutral zone performance has marred the defenseman since his days on Long Island. Such play leads to easy carry-in entries for opposing skaters and makes life easier for the opposition and harder for MacDonald's teammates.
Every player has his faults, though, so why does MacDonald catch so much flack from fans? The answer to some may be his six-year, $30 million dollar contract.
If Andrew MacDonald makes $3 million instead of $5 million he gets 80% less grief on Twitter. Has very little to do with his ability.
— Dave Isaac (@davegisaac) March 4, 2016
To answer the question of his detractors' motivations, you only have to do a quick search on Twitter to see how much grief his teammate Nick Schultz gets, case in point:
Can't wait for the day that Nick Schultz and Mark Streit are not on the Flyers. Schultz provides no offense and Streit is slow as molasses
— Chris Landry (@Landry_dubc) March 29, 2016
Nick Schultz blocks a lot of shots mostly because his go to move is just laying down
— Matthew (@MatthewSmelly) March 28, 2016
And those were the kind tweets about the veteran defenseman, the ones that didn’t attack him on a personal level. Schultz makes $2.25 million and has one more year left on his contract. That’s not even a bad contract, per se, and compared with MacDonald’s it’s just fine.
So it has to be the combination. An albatross of a contract coupled with play that many fans believe doesn’t reflect that cost and with that price tag comes another question.
What is MacDonald’s future in Orange and Black? Did his play down the stretch earn him a spot in the NHL next season or will he ride the buses come next fall?
It seems more complicated than most "bad" contracts general manager Ron Hextall has magically dealt away.
The trade route is limited. His contract isn’t an empty cap hit like Chris Pronger’s, which was moved largely because most of the salary was already paid and the Arizona Coyotes were looking for a cap floor boost.
He most certainly won’t promise to retire like Vincent Lecavalier either. Therefore, if any team wants to acquire MacDonald, they’d have pay the rest of his salary and endure his cap hit until 2020.
Unless, of course, Hextall retained some money in a potential deal. However, that would limit his trading options for the next four seasons as a franchise can only share salary on three players at a time.
But if there isn’t much interest in the Judique, Nova Scotia native, is there a place for him in Philadelphia next season? The initial outlook isn’t too promising.
The universal consensus throughout the hockey world is that Ivan Provorov is going to be playing in Philadelphia next season. Gostisbehere and Del Zotto are locks to return while the team is hoping to secure Radko Gudas long-term.
However, Hextall may be looking to find suitors for Schultz and Mark Streit. Both have only next season left on their contracts. Therefore, the Flyers GM would be wise to get something in return for them sooner rather than later as dealing both defensemen will free up $7.5 million in cap space.
If Hextall can’t work out a swap or prefers to keep any of the two blueliners then MacDonald faces a distinct possibility of starting next season in Lehigh Valley. Bear in mind, even with the team likely letting Evgeny Medvedev walk, Brandon Manning or any cheap alternative would likely act as a seventh defenseman.
MacDonald’s fate in Philadelphia, and the NHL for that matter, is certainly cloudy. He played better as the season wore on, but it likely won’t be enough to force himself back into the Flyers long-term plans. Which may mean that if he can’t make it in Philly, he’ll have to start again in Allentown. And if he returns to the AHL, he’s not playing his way out of town, keeping his future in doubt.
Dan Heaning is a contributing writer for Flyerdelphia. Follow him on Twitter @Dan_Heaning.
