The biggest lesson learned from the Ruben Amaro Jr. era, among many, is that giving $100 million contracts to players over the age of 30 usually doesn't work out well.
Though he's made it clear he thinks this portrayal is unfair, Ryan Howard is perhaps the poster-boy for that notion. Through four years of a 5-year/$125 million deal, Howard has posted a -1.4 combined WAR (per Fangraphs) and has a mean batting average of .234. Needless to say, that's not $25 million per season production.
So when countdowns rank the worst contracts in the league annually, Howard tends to be towards the top of the list. However, when ESPN's Dan Szymborski ranked the worst contracts in the league heading into the 2016 season, Howard only came in as the 11th worst.
Howard being "only" 11th here doesn't reflect any positivity about his performance in 2016, simply the reality that most of the contract is now behind him. Still, with a year left on his contract, a team claiming him on waivers — an implausible happenstance — would have to pay him $25 million and the $10 million buyout for his 2017 option. Given that Howard hit .229/.277/.443 in 2015 and .223/.310/.380 in 2014, is 36 years old and has no defensive value, signing him for even one-tenth of his remaining policy would be a poor idea.
As Szymborski noted, a few seasons ago, Howard would have been higher on this countdown. However, 2015 is the final guaranteed season of his deal. The Phillies will, barring any catastrophic changes, buy Howard out of the $23 million 2017 option that his contract contains for $10 million. So Howard's contract isn't the albatross on the organization it was a few years ago, it's more of a speed-bump as the Phillies look to usher in a new generation.
Albert Pujols, who still has north of $160 million left on his contract, was ranked as the worst contract in the league by the countdown. Miguel Cabera is 32, and though he's going to be a first-ballot hall of famer, he weighs over 240 pounds and it's hard to imagine his 8-year/$248 million deal going particularly well. He came in at number five on the countdown. Expect him to continue to move up this list annually, as the Tigers seem destined to end up in a worse financial situation than the Phillies have been the past few seasons.
Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) is the Managing Editor of Philliedelphia.com, focusing on news and features.
