Last week, we passed along that a Sports Illustrated countdown, which used a formula that combined both the Baseball America and MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects countdown lists, rated the Philadelphia Phillies as the number one overall farm system in the minor leagues.
While that countdown excited Phillies fans, it was flawed to a degree. It favored teams like the Phillies, who have a concentration of their top prospects who are likely to debut in the big leagues at some point this season, since those players tend to be higher on the top 100 countdowns.
For example, Baseball America's 2014 countdown had J.P. Crawford, who was just 19 at the time, ranked as their 78th best prospect. Above Crawford was Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton, who was further along in his ascension to the big leagues, but batted just .226 in his second full season in the big leagues in 2015. Crawford hasn't played at the big-league level yet, but the Phillies wouldn't even entertain the idea of moving Crawford for a package that included Hamilton in 2016, let alone take Hamilton over Crawford. But Hamilton was favored at that time because he was closer to the big-leagues, which is a flaw on most prospect countdowns.
ESPN's Keith Law released his annual pre-Spring Training farm system rankings list this afternoon (for ESPN Insiders), and his countdown seemed to give a better glimpse at the entirety of team's systems. It wasn't, however, as kind to the Phillies, as they were "only" ranked as the sixth best farm system in the league.
The Cole Hamels trade might turn out to be the Phillies' Herschel Walker moment, trading their best asset for a huge package of prospects who look like they'll boost the major league club for years to come. The next step is maximizing their output from this year's draft, in which they hold the first overall pick.
It is worth noting that Law ranked the Phillies as having the 25th best system at this time last year, so for the team to jump 19 spots in one calendar year is incredible.
The Phillies also have various other things that work in their favor as an organization.
Maikel Franco, Jerad Eickhoff, Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr, Vincent Velasquez and Aaron Nola are all talented young players that have already graduated to the big-league level, and because they aren't prospects anymore they weren't factored into this countdown. But the belief is that the talent that's currently in the minor leagues now will eventually join some of these former top prospects who have had some early success at the big-league level.
Also, much like Crawford was a few seasons ago, 2015 top pick Cornelius Randolph is just out of high school, so he's a ways away from the major leagues. But over the course of the next few years, he has a chance to move up countdowns and become the team's top minor-league hitting prospect. If that happens, in addition to the Phillies continuing to draft well, they could move up this list. (But as some players reach the major league level, which is the goal, moving up lists may become harder.)
The Atlanta Braves, who enter the season as the favorite to push the Phillies out of the number one draft slot for the 2017 draft, were ranked at number one on the list. The Chicago Cubs and Los Angles Dodgers were also in the top five, which is scary when you consider how deep both teams already are at the major league level.
Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) is the Managing Editor of Philliedelphia.com, focusing on news and features.
