To call the Philadelphia Phillies' first-base situation uninspiring heading into Spring Training would probably be putting things lightly.
Ryan Howard, now 36, is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, before he is inevitably bought out of the final season of his deal in 2017. Essentially, 2016 projects to serve as some sort of farewell tour for Howard, though it's been half a decade since he's been anything resembling the former MVP that he once was, so this season will probably be more of a forced farewell tour.
Darin Ruf will make the team and likely platoon with Howard, though his splits against right-handed pitchers and the fact that he is a below-average fielder probably won't leave him with much of a long-term future with the club.
The Phillies don't, at least on paper, have another option internally to push either of these two this spring. ESPN's Buster Olney speculated today that one potential external option, former Pittsburgh Pirates' slugger Pedro Alvarez, could be a fit.
Yes, they have Ryan Howard, 36, on their roster, entering the last year of his $125 million contract. Manager Pete Mackanin already has indicated that he'll bench Howard if he doesn’t produce — coming off a 2015 season in which Howard batted .229, with a .277 on-base percentage. Rather than politely waiting for a turnaround that the Phillies probably don't believe will happen, it might make more sense for the organization to use its first-base at-bats to bet on Alvarez for a short-term stock flip. As with the Rockies, if the Phillies sign Alvarez to play in their cozy ballpark and he hits well in the first three months, they could flip him for another prospect to add to their growing pile of young talent. The Phillies wouldn't sign Alvarez for themselves, but to take advantage of his potential trade value.
Olney did note in his article that Alvarez was actually the only fielder in the league worse than Ryan Howard in terms of defensive runs saved in 2015, one of the main reasons that the Pirates elected to non-tend him in December. Other stats, such as UZR, suggest that Alvarez was actually worse than Howard in the field by a fairly wide margin in 2015. All of that points to him being a better fit in the American League, where he could serve as a DH.
While Alvarez probably does fit better in the American League, Olney's point is well taken. He has twice hit over 30 home runs, and while neither of those two seasons came within the last two years, taking a chance on him and seeing if a change of scenery wouldn't allow him to re-gain that form wouldn't be the worst idea. He does strike-out a ton, on top of not fielding well, so the Phillies could execute this plan and only get a minimal return for Alvarez, but it isn't as though he would be blocking someone with a long-term future on the team from playing in the process.
The interesting thing to watch this season is that since it is essentially Howard's last year of his contract, if he were able to get hot around the deadline, some teams may show interest in him. The Phillies would have to eat a majority of the money left on his deal for this year and his buy-out for 2016, but the idea of trading Howard in 2016 may be more realistic than it was In 2014 or 2015. It's probably more realistic than the chances of the Phillies signing Alvarez.
Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) is the Managing Editor of Philliedelphia.com, focusing on news and features.
