Analyzing the Flyers bottom 6 forwards

As the season began, there might have been some difficulty identifying an order to the Philadelphia Flyers lines. Obviously the top line would feature Claude Giroux but was Sean Couturier going to be considered a Top-6 forward or headman the defensive minded third line? Was Pierre-Edouard Bellemare line the third or the fourth?

The Flyers lines have generally stabilized, and the pecking order has become more clear: Giroux, Couturier, Bellemare, then Scott Laughton. This is revealed by ice time, quality of competition, and positional faceoff percentages.

The Bellemare line as the clear cut third line is probably the biggest surprise to most Flyers fans. Bellemare and Chris VandeVelde have the lowest cachet of all Flyers forwards, and some might've considered them to be fringe NHLers at all. Are they deserving of this role?

Below is a comparison of Corsi statistics in 5v5 close score situations for Flyers currently playing a bottom-6 role.

(For Corsi Against per 60, lower is better)

From this chart, clear trends emerge. Laughton, R.J. Umberger and Ryan White have been distinctively negative players for the Flyers this season. There is probably some self-reinforcement with statistics converging when players play on the same line, but it does confirm the idea that these are fourth line players by quality.

A second interesting trend the chart shows is Bellemare outperforming his linemate VandeVelde. Bellemare does tend to concede more shots on the ice, but he also generates many more shots for, and falls on the positive side of the Corsi balance.

Lastly, the numbers look very good for Sam Gagner. His sample size is the smallest due to injury and healthy scratches, but the analytics show effective performances.

Before drawing too many conclusions from the above chart, player deployment must be considered.  Here are three charts showing different aspects of deployment.

Regarding time on ice, Matt Read is higher because he has only recently been demoted to the bottom-6 forward mix. Otherwise ice time conforms to the line ranks as explained above, with White finding ice time beyond other fourth liners.

Quality of competition and faceoff percentages also make clear that the fourth line is getting easier assignments than the Bellemare line. Their competition faced is weaker, while they are seeing a lot more offensive zone starts.

Combining deployment data with Corsi analytics, a few winners and losers emerge. First, Umberger has the easiest assignments. His Corsi barely improves on his linemates, however, so he's hasn't done much with those advantages. Furthermore, he has zero goals on the season. To his credit, he is +2,  while basically every other forward on this list is a minus player.

Second, White may not be deserving of extra ice time. In recent games against St. Louis and Dallas he received considerably more ice time than fellow fourth liners, then was subsequently promoted to the third line. The numbers don't really provide a foundation for that promotion.

Third, Sam Gagner is getting a tough deal. He's never had much of a home in this lineup, and it was never clear the Flyers even really wanted him. They decided to keep him, and he did come to play this season. He showed some flashes early in the season with his speed and skill upsetting the defense, but he's mostly been buried since then and missed a few weeks with a concussion. I, for one, would like to see him get more a chance with this team.

Going back to the initial inquiries proposed above, Bellemare and VandeVelde may be the best the Flyers have to offer on the depth lines. Whether this is reflects well on the growth of these players, or is an indictment of the Flyers forwards depth, is an open question.

On the other hand, Laughton and Umberger aren't making much of a case for themselves. This question and these statistics will come up again as the Flyers face inevitable lineup questions. Can Laughton stay up in the NHL when Mark Streit comes back from injury? Will the Flyers buyout Umberger in the offseason? Either way, Gagner deserves more opportunities.

Marc Naples is a contributor to Flyerdelphia and Sports Talk Philly. Follow him on Twitter@SuperScrub47.