Week 6 is already here. In Detroit, Miami, Baltimore, Kansas City, New Orleans, and San Francisco, the NFL season might as well be over. In the AFC South, the Colts—limping out of the gate to a 3-2 start—appear to have weathered the injuries on offense & will soon leave the Titans/Colts/Texans in their dust. That makes nine NFL fan bases—by the end of October!—that can reasonably turn their attention to college football prospects in preparation of the 2016 NFL draft. This is the reality of a league that, while priding itself on parity, annually sees the cream rise to the top early. It’s a league where the level of competition does not allow for a poor stretch of games. A slow start or 4 game skid can cripple a season and turn otherwise talented teams into also-rans. So, in Week 6, which teams will take a step toward the posteason and which teams will make moves toward the offseason? Let’s take a look at the matchups:
Atlanta Falcons (-4) at New Orleans Saints: We saw last week just how bad the Saints are. After thinking the Saints got it in gear against the Cowboys the week prior, it was my mistake taking the Saints (+6.5) to cover against the Eagles in Week 5. The Saints play well compete at home. The Falcons—off to a surprising 5-0 start—are probably due for a let-down loss. I just don’t see it happening against a terrible Saints squad right now. Falcons should win, but not sure how I feel about the line.
Washington Redskins (+6) at New York Jets: The Jets got a much needed week of rest in week 5. Decker, Cromartie, Revis, Ivory, etc. all got some time to heal after their Philbin-firing-inducing win over the Dolphins in London the week prior.
Washington went down to Georgia,
looking for a win to steal.
They were in a bind,
when they got behind,
after a pick-6 sealed the deal.
The Jets & Redskins have both outplayed expectations this year. I think , Todd Bowles learned from Andy Reid how to prep his team during a bye week. Jets win at home after the bye.
Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Cardinals are as complete a team right now as there is in the NFL. As bad as the Chargers made Mike Vick look for 3.5 quarters, the Cardinals will make him look worse. As good as Philip Rivers/Melvin Gordon/Antonio Gates looked, Palmer/Johnson/Fitzgerald should look better. Cardinals should win by more than a field goal at Heinz Field.
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-4): Losing Jamaal Charles for the season is the nightmare scenario for the Chiefs. Pulling extra defenders into the box was half of Charles’ job responsibility. We’re talking about an offense that produced just two touchdowns to WRs in the last roughly million years. Sorry, but any team that loses to the Bears this season just can’t, in good conscience, be picked to win a road game until they prove otherwise. Vikings win.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills: There is a lot up in the air with this one. Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, & Charles Clay have all been limited in practice this week. Percy Harvin & Karlos Williams have been held out entirely. If you got in early this week, you could have had the Bengals laying just a field goal. Either way, the Bengals are playing complementary football right now and are healthy. Bengals win.
Chicago Bears (-3) at Detroit Lions: Who cares. They’re both terrible. This has the feel of a gut-check game after Stafford was benched last week & the Lions are a home-dog, so I’ll take them.
Denver Broncos (-5) at Cleveland Browns: Is there a unit in the NFL this season that has been as underwhelming as the Broncos offense? Probably not. The Browns, though feisty in recent weeks, just don’t have enough to get over on Denver’s defense. Don’t be surprised if the Browns keep it close but they will, in fact, lose.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Pick): Another ugly game. If Bortles can’t go, I like Houston to get a win here with the extra preparation time: having lost last Thursday night to the Colts. We’ll see if Hoyer can continue his solid play from the second half of that game…if you ignore the game-losing interception, that is.
Miami Dolphins (+2) at Tennessee Titans: This is another game where it just feels like gut-check time for one of the teams. Coming into the season, the Dolphins were a dark-horse candidate to make the playoffs for many experts. Turns out they forgot Joe Philbin was the head coach and the defense was overrated. There is absolutely talent on this team—Tannehill, Landry, Suh, Jordan, etc.—they were juts having a hard time getting it together. I think, coming off a bye week, they come out and play hard for the interim head coach who had them lathered up at practice for the last fortnight. Take the two points.
Carolina Panthers (+8) at Seattle Seahawks: Cam Newton said this week, in reference to the 12th Man in Seattle: “loud is loud.” No, Cam…it isn’t. Since 2012, the Seahawks have lost just three games at home. You cannot minimize that kind of home-field advantage. The Seahawks defense will likely stifle a Panthers offense that doesn’t have a single receiving threat at WR. They may not cover the 8 point spread, but only cause the offense isn’t playing all that well.
San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (-10.5): This is a big line for any NFL game. The Packers will win this game because that is what they do at home and, frankly, they are just a better team. But covering >10 points is a hard proposition in the NFL; especially against a Chargers team that not only looks like they can run the ball now but also has Phillip Rivers slinging it around.
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+1): The 49ers, for the first time all season, look like they had it together in the second half last week. Had Eli manning not gotten away with an obvious intentional grounding on the Giants last drive, the 49ers would have won that game. The Ravens, on the other hand, are downright terrible. San Francisco is at home and playing with a little bit of revenge on their side: not only from the Super Bowl loss, but also with a pair of WRs—Boldin & Smith—that will want to stick it to their old franchise. Take the point in what ought to be a 49ers win.
New England Patriots (-8) at Indianapolis Colts: Here is how I am thinking about this game…follow me here. The Patriots covered, easily, the 8-10 point line at the Cowboys last week. The Colts are probably a slightly better team with Luck under center…but just slightly. So it stands to reason the Patriots would easily cover this one too, right? Possibly. Especially in prime time, Brady will come out fired up & in the middle of his “thirst-for-blood” tour. If this line drifts late toward the Colts—like to less than 7—I’m all over it…but not just yet.
New York Giants (+4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles: Is anyone else shocked the Eagles are this highly favored in this game? That looks like an awfully large spread for an Eagles offense that has yet to play a four-quarter game this season; for a quarterback that has yet to show us he has it together for a full game; for a defense that has not fared well against some solid passing units this season. Eli Manning is, arguably, the best QB the team has faced so far. Beckham, Cruz, Randle are all doing their best to play. I think it is possible the Eagles can pull this one out because I don’t like the Giants defensively. If 2/3 of Eli’s targets play, I’m taking the 4.5 but thinking Eagles win.
In last week’s official picks, Green Bay & New England covered their spreads. New Orleans, to my surprise, didn’t show up at all in Philadelphia. That makes us 8-4-1 in picks against the spread this season. Spreads I like this weekend:
New York Giant (+4.5) at Philadelphia
Arizona (-3) at Pittsburgh
Baltimore at San Francisco (+1)
Miami (+2) at Tennessee
