Has there been a more ass-backwards start to an NFL season in recent memory? If you can think of one, I’d like to hear it. The Seahawks, Colts, Ravens, & Eagles are all winless. The Jets, Jaguars, Titans, and Falcons—teams that combined for 15 wins in 2014—are all leading their divisions after two weeks. Bizarre. Fortunately, there is some certainty in fantasy football. Gronk is gonna Gronk. Aaron Rodgers is still cardinal North. There are players to trust and matchups to watch. Here they are:
- Tom Brady (QB, NE): Fully deflated balls or not, Brady is going to absolutely destroy Jacksonville this weekend in Foxborough, MA.
- Matt Ryan (QB, ATL): Don’t let their performance against the Eagles fool you, Dallas’ defense is not that good…rather, Philly’s offense was just that bad. Matt Ryan hasn’t looked great yet this season. He will on Sunday.
- Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT): He’s going to run angry. He’s going to run to prove a point. He’s going to be fresh. The Rams gave up 182 yards & two touchdowns to the Redskins last week. St Louis is the third worst rush defense in the league right now.
- Jamaal Charles (RB, KC): Green Bay has the 31st ranked rushing defense in the NFL. Jamaal Charles—when not fumbling the game away—is a top-five running back in the NFL. Like those trends.
- Doug Martin (RB, TB): Houston—for all the talent on the defensive line—doesn’t stop the run very well. Martin
- Antonio Brown (WR, PIT): Never don’t start him.
- Julio Jones (WR, ATL): He is having the huge fantasy year everyone thought he would. Same logic her as used for Matt Ryan, above.
- Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA): He has been the target on 27% of the pass attempts from Ryan Tannehill. That won’t change & Buffalo, despite having a solid defense overall, have a suspect secondary.
- Donte Moncrief (WR, IND): He & Andrew Luck have obvious chemistry. I’m still not sure why the Colts insisted on bringing Andre Johnson in when TY Hilton & Moncrief are a solid 1-2. TY Hilton is still working back from a knee contusion and playing on a short week.
- Julian Edelman (WR, NE): He’s good for 10+ catches and over 85 yards without worry. When he gets in the end zone—as he did twice last week—it’s gravy on the mashed potatoes.
- Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE): Do I really need to explain?
- Jordan Reed (TE, WAS): As long as DeSean Jackson is sidelined, Reed is the second most viable pass catcher & a safety blanket for Kirk Cousins.
- Eric Ebron (TE, DET): If he continues to get opportunities, he’ll continue to produce.
- Steven Hauschka (K, NE): If you can’t tell from above, I like the Patriots to score many points this weekend.
- Jets Defense: Until the Eagles show they have it together, feel free to start defenses playing them…especially this one that has shutdown corners and the best DT in the NFL right now.
In last week’s Vegas Fix, I went 2-2: correctly picking the Steelers over the Niners, and the Cardinals over the Bears. The Redskins beat the Rams outright. The Chargers couldn’t manage the cover in a loss at the Bengals. It’s week three and there’s a winner in every game: how much could these games win you?
- Pittsburgh (-2) at St. Louis: Riding Pittsburgh again, huh? Le’Veon Bell is rejoining an offense that will almost certainly end up being a top-unit NFL unit by season’s end. By contrast, Todd Gurley will join a Rams offense that is in dire need of a reliable rushing threat to ease the burden on a unit led by Nick Foles. I trust Bell more than the rookie.
- Indianapolis (-3.5) at Tennessee: Do you think Andrew Luck & the Colts have the requisite dearth of talent to start the season 0-3? They don’t. Do you think Tennessee has the same caliber defense as Buffalo & the New York Jets? They do not. At 0-2, the Colts need to come out with an imposing & convincing win to serve notice to the rest of the AFC.
- Atlanta (-2) at Dallas: No Romo, no Dez, no win. In games like this, the backups can often play above their head and pull out a win. The Cowboys exhausted that mojo last week in South Philly. The Eagles were still in the game and could have won despite their sieve-like offensive line, a novice WR corps with the yips, & a skittish QB. Do those descriptions sound like Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, et al? Didn’t think so.
