Patrick Causey, on Twitter @InsdeTheHuddle
The Philadelphia Eagles have committed $64 million in total contracts to DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. Many thought the Eagles potential three headed monster at running back would be the best unit in the league.
And yet, in last week's loss to the Atlanta Falcons, the Philadelphia Eagles had an Andy Reid-like disparity in the run to pass ratio: 16 runs to 52 passes.
It brought about an avalanche of criticism from fans and media members alike — most of it fair — who questioned Chip Kelly's decision to abandon the run game so quickly.
Kelly dismissed those concerns as misplaced: "We're concerned with moving the ball down the field. So, at the end of the day, whether we rush it for 399 yards or pass it for 399 yards or whatever, my concern isn't the distribution," said Kelly.
He emphasized that the Eagles do not care where the yards come from as long as they are moving the ball down the field: "If we are moving the football and getting the ball into the end zone, that's what we're concerned with. How we get it there isn't a concern."
In Kelly's defense, the NFL has become increasingly pass happy since the rules were changed to open up the passing game and increase scoring. With defensive backs prevented from any meaningful contact with a receiver, the passing game is more efficient and productive than ever before.
Teams like the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, and even the Eagles under Reid, leaned heavily on short passes as a substitute for running plays. Most of the NFL has followed suit, with teams attempting pass plays on 58 percent of snaps in 2014, an all-time high.
The increase in pass plays is causing bell cow running backs to be marginalized. For every Adrian Peterson, there are six running back by committees. From 2000-2006, there was an average of 10 300-plus carry runners per season. That number dropped to six per year from 2007-2010. From 2011-2014? Three per year.
Statistics support this trend, as passer efficiency has a higher correlation to Super Bowl success than rushing efficiency.
But no matter how pass happy the league becomes, teams must commit the run to be successful in the NFL.
Consider this: in 2013, 9 of the top 12 teams in rushing attempts made the postseason. That number was lower in 2014 (with 9 out of the top 15 teams making the playoffs), but not a single team in the bottom 10 in rushing attempts made the playoffs.
Running the ball is a lot like body blows in boxing. It isn't always sexy. It doesn't always make the highlight reel. And it doesn't lead to quick points. But it wears a defense down over the course of the game, and as the defense creeps up to stop the run, it creates opportunities for big gains down the field.
Kelly knows this. He has repeatedly stressed the importance of establishing a strong run game. And in his first two year's in the league, he has largely delivered on that promise. In 2013, the Eagles 31.2 rushing attempts per game ranked fourth in the NFL. In 2014, the Eagles ran the ball 29.6 times per game last year, which was seventh most.
But Kelly is a numbers guy. If he sees that the numbers favor run or pass, he will exploit it. So when a defense continues to stack the box and dares Kelly to throw the ball — much like the Falcons did Monday night – Kelly will happily oblige.
Kelly's logic is sound: if your opponent is giving you easy yards, take them. But this only goes so far. Because I noticed that Quinn was dictating to the Eagles what they would do on offense in a sort of reverse-psychology approach. He didn't want the Eagles to get the run game going, so he sold out to stop it, knowing Kelly and Bradford would continue to dial up the pass to take advantage of the numbers game.
Kelly should resist that temptation. The Eagles are a much better team when they have a balanced approach. Do they need to run an equal percentage of pass versus run? No.
But the numbers show that the more the Eagles run, the more the Eagles win.
I went back and looked at the run to pass ratio of every Eagles game played under Kelly. The Eagles are 11-2 when they run more than pass. But when they pass more than they run? The Eagles are 8-12.
Against the hated Dallas Cowboys, the Eagles are 2-0 when they lean on the run game with 34 to 27 run to pass ratio in their 2013 victory, and a 45 to 29 run to pass ratio in the Thanksgiving massacre last year. However, the Eagles are 0-2 against the Cowboys when the inverse holds true: 46 passes to 27 runs (2013), and 28 passes to 21 runs (2014).
I know what Chip Kelly and his fans will say: correlation does not equal causation; it makes sense that the Eagles run the ball more in wins because teams that have the lead tend to run more than pass, and teams losing tend to throw more than run.
While that might be true in some games, it isn't in all of them. 11-2 is not a statistical aberration. It is a large enough sample size to show that the Eagles are much better when they take a balanced approach.
The Cowboys are without Dez Bryant, Greg Hardy, Randy Gregory, and Orlando Scandrick. They are on the road. And they are up 1-0 in the Division after having a game gift wrapped to them by the New York Giants.
As early as it is in the season, this is a must win game for the Eagles. They simply cannot lose to the Cowboys, at home, when the Cowboys are missing so many key players.
Kelly would be wise to rely on his expensive stable of running backs early and often. Let the offensive line get off the line and hit someone. Let Alex Smith Sam Bradford settle down and play mistake free football. Keep Tony Romo off the field.
The Eagles aren't guaranteed to win if they get back to the run game. But they will improve their chances greatly.
