76ers announce Joel Embiid (foot) will miss the entire 2015-16 season: Official statement » http://t.co/Dlx0IxFg1N pic.twitter.com/aYCQsdJAUG
— NBA.com (@NBAcom) July 12, 2015
Patrick Causey, on Twitter @PhillySportsPMC
I needed a few days to process the news that Joel Embiid was going to require a second surgery. I don't like hot takes or knee-jerk reactions. So I wanted to give myself some time to let this news sink in and fully analyze all of its implications.
If we are being honest with ourselves, we all knew this was coming. Ever since the Sixers' press release that Embiid had suffered a "setback" we knew that this was the likely outcome. Even if we did not want to admit it.
But expecting the worst has a funny way of not fully prepare you for experiencing the worst. The sense of inevitability hangs over you like an anvil as your head is on the chopping block. The information delivered in a Saturday evening press relief engulfs you with a since of finality that is still painful even if not surprising.
(On a side note; Hinkie, what's with the Saturday releases? Can't you leave me to enjoy my weekend in peace?).
If this shakes out the way so many of us expect — with Embiid never fully recovering, never fully reaching his potential that is larger than his 7'2 frame — the moment I found out about the injury will be imprinted in my mind for a long time. When I randomly looked at my phone on a Saturday afternoon and saw the Twitter update — someone responded to a tweet we posted on the Sixerdelphia account saying that the news ruined their day — I just knew.
It sucks. On so many levels. For this city, for this team, and most importantly, for Joel Embiid.
Embiid is 19 freaking years old. He has more potential to play basketball than I do at anything in my life. I could not imagine being blessed with so much talent, so much skill, so much potential, and having your body rob you of the opportunity to make use of it all. It has to be frustrating, especially for someone so young.
I used to lose my mind when I was 19 years old and the Eagles would lose a game (at times, I still do). I couldn't imagine how I would have reacted to news this significant, but I can venture a guess that it would not be pretty.
Embiid showed signs that the drudgery of rehab was taking its toll. Anyone that has suffered a significant injury knows what that is like. Wake up, go to rehab, put in hours of excruciating work, watch the calendar, hope for good news from the doctors; rinse and repeat.
But when you don't even feel pain? When your body feels fine but you have doctors and team executives telling you that something is still wrong? It must be maddening. Especially when their caution is preventing you from justifying your lofty draft status and lifting the weight of the burden that lofty status has placed on your broad shoulders.
I wanted to focus on Embiid first and foremost because it seems that too many people are taking sick enjoyment out of this. Not that Embiid is hurt, necessarily. But that it allows them to continue to push a narrative that supports their agenda. It has nothing to do with Embiid as a basketball player. It has everything to do with just waiting for the right opportunity to hate on Sam Hinkie, his plan for rebuilding the Sixers, and the fans that are patient enough to wait it out.
It's unfortunate, but not surprising, that the 19-year old kid whose career hangs in the balance is actually responding to this news with more emotional maturity than some in the media who are paid to objectively evaluate this situation.
But I digress.
Let's try to answer the $64 million question: what does this news mean for the Sixers?
First, looking backwards, it further validates the Sixers selection of Jahlil Okafor. Remember all of those people decrying the Sixers decision to extend significant capital in another big? If they are being honest with themselves, they are likely thankful that the Sixers did so.
It is a lesson in why you always draft the best player available, regardless of positional need. I've covered this issue before, so I won't belabor the point. But suffice it to say, thankfully we were able to avoid learning about the hard way.
It takes cajones to make that pick when you have Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Dario Saric in the fold. Other teams have not had the dexterity to do so (see the Portland Trailblazers drafting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan because they had Clyde Drexler in the mix, which I detail here). And as Sam Hinkie recently stated when justifying the Okafor selection, history is kind to the teams that take the best franchise caliber player available; it is unkind to anything else.
Second, the Sixers are going to have to make a decision on Embiid's contract very soon. He signed a two-year deal with a team option the following two seasons. Meaning that the Sixers will have to decide by the end of this season whether to pick up his $4 million option before he has played a game for the team. Odds are they will exercise his option because they simply cannot let him go for nothing. But it raises an interesting dilemma for the team and will give us insight into the teams thinking on whether Embiid can ever recover from his injuries.
Third, you can legitimately question the decision to draft Joel Embiid given his injury history but also still trust the plan the Sixers have in place. It seems like right now, the reaction is either all or nothing: either you hate the pick and the plan or you are on board with the plan and support the decision the Sixers made to swing for the fences.
There are many smart basketball minds on either side of this debate. But you can straddle the fence here. It would be improper for me to speculate about the severity of Embiid's back and foot injuries. I never saw Embiid's medical reports, and even if I did I would not have the wherewithal to comprehend what it all means.
But history is not kind on 7 footers that have broken the navicular bone in their foot. History is also not kind to 7 footers with a stress fracture in their back. Add the two together, and it is reasonable to assume that the risk for future injury might be too great to justify Embiid's otherwise considerable talents.
Perhaps the Sixers knew that they would be in a position over the next two to three years to grab more top flight talent so they were comfortable taking on the risk that Embiid does not pan out.
But it just seems like a missed opportunity. I have said before, and I will repeat it again: I would have gone with Dante Exum, a player that was very highly rated coming out of Australia and that is starting to turn the corner as an NBA prospect. I understand why the Sixers made the decision they made, but I can't help but wonder if the Sixers would be better off had they gone for a triple instead of a homerun.
But even if the Sixers made a mistake drafting Embiid does not mean that the course the Sixers are taking to build a contender is fatally flawed. The Sixers self-stated goal is to build something sustainable for the next ten plus years The Sixers self-stated means for accomplishing that goal is through "optionality," a word used to describe the saying "do not put all of your eggs in one basket."
Sam Hinkie has often discussed how he believes in optionality when it comes to team building. And it is self-evident based on the amount of assets the Sixers have acquired in recent years. The Sixers know that the draft is a crap shoot. Even the best, most talented prospects can bust (like, possibly, Embiid). So the Sixers have given themselves multiple chances to obtain that elusive franchise caliber cornerstone.
Nerlens Noel might never develop into a dominant offensive player to become that guy.
Joel Embiid might never become healthy enough to become that guy.
Jahlil Okafor might never develop into a dominant defensive player to become that guy.
Dario Saric might never come to the NBA, or he might never develop beyond a third wheel.
The Lakers top-3 protected pick might not yield that guy.
The Sixers or Kings picks over the next two seasons (thanks to the pick swap) might not yield that guy.
And the Kings 2018 top-10 protected pick (which becomes unprotected in 2019) might not yield that guy.
But odds are, at least one of those players or assets will lead to that guy. That is the beauty of the plan. It isn't predicated on one player panning out. We have multiple options to make this work. And that is what should give you solace during this otherwise trying time as a Sixers fan.
