In less than a month, the Philadelphia Eagles will open training camp. Without question, the most significant storyline will be the “open competition” at the quarterback position. This will undoubtedly dwarf the following topics: Evan Mathis’ departure, the performance of Allen Barbre/Jason Moffitt/ Matt Tobin/Andrew Gardner/etc., the new-look Murray/Mathews/Sproles backfield, Josh Huff’s proliferation, Nelson Adholor’s introduction, Riley Cooper’s (suspected) decline, Zach Ertz’ growth, and any other myriad of offensive talking points. In the NFL nowadays,quarterback is the position of upmost importance. When you’ve got a great one, you can chalk yourself up for a winning season. When you’ve got a good one, you can be in the hunt for your division. When you have an open competition—especially when Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, & Tim Tebow are included—you’ve got nationally compelling storylines. Make no mistake, the success—or failure—of the 2015 campaign will be largely determined by the play of both these quarterbacks.
Over the last month, we’ve attempted to project the performance of the 2015 Eagles offense. We’ve already considered the running backs, the wide receivers, and the tight ends. This week we’ll finish up with the quarterbacks & Cody Parkey.
Sam Bradford – 11 games started, 3200 yards, 25 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
The Eagles—in one of the organizations more shocking moves during the Jeffrey Lurie ownership era—traded Nick Foles & a second-round pick to the St. Louis Rams in exchange for Sam Bradford. Include in this price the paltry $13M Bradford is owed this season & you’ve got a lot of capital invested in a guy you don’t intend to start. This doesn’t need to be complicated: if Bradford is healthy, he is going to start. In a perfect world, Bradford will lead the offense for all 16 games this season after winning the starting gig over the course of a four-week long, high quality competition with Sanchez.
Either of the following two scenarios is more likely to unfold. First, Bradford continues the long road to recovery & isn’t 100% by the time the third preseason game is played. As a result, Sanchez begins the season as the starting signal-caller & Bradford takes the reins when healthy or when Sanchez blows his chance. Second, Bradford wins the starting job with a preseason of full participation but succumbs to injury & Sanchez enters in relief.
Bradford may very well start under center in the Monday Night Football opener on September 14th in Atlanta, but Sanchez will likely start at least one game as a result of a Bradford injury. Even still, I think Bradford plays the majority of games and plays well in Chip Kelly’s offense. If he manages the above numbers—coupled with a completion percentage of 60% or more—then I don’t see the Eagles losing many of the 11 games I project him to start.
Mark Sanchez – 5 games started, 950 yards, 8 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
Retaining Sanchez was an offseason priority for Chip Kelly. The organization spent $9M—with $5.5M guaranteed—to bring back Sanchez on a two-year contract. The thought is that Sanchez is a starting-caliber NFL quarterback and, as a backup, is off the charts. Sanchez claims to have been told he can win the starting gig in August. The feeling here is that Bradford wins the job if he is healthy. First, Bradford is the better overall quarterback. Second, $5.5M guaranteed < $13M + Foles + picks. The path toward starting for Sanchez is detailed above. If Bradford can’t hit the ground running (so to speak), Sanchez is in. If Bradford goes down during the regular season, Sanchez is in. The above numbers are reflective of Sanchez’ 2014 production: it’s who he is in this offense when he doesn’t have the consistent chance to start & play.
Cody Parkey – 170 total points
Acquired via trade from the Indianapolis Colts during the 2014 preseason, this kid not only unseated Alex Henery but also made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. Despite this, he was average among place kickers based on Pro Football Focus. For a kid that managed to make all four of his attempts from 50+ yards, he missed four field goals from 30-49 yards. This needs to improve: as does his ability to put the ball deep into the end zone on kickoffs. If he is able to improve upon the 53% kickoffs return rate & is more consistent in the mid-range attempts, he’ll be back in the Pro Bowl this year. I think a (slightly) better offense means more points. Another year building strength improves the kickoffs. This kid becomes this coach’s David Akers.
