It seems like every other day Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly has given us something to talk about…something to consider…something to debate. The topic du jour is the Eagles unceremonious release of veteran offensive guard Evan Mathis. This story ate up the end-of-the-week news cycle. A day for second guessing & despair, a day to debate the timing of the release, and a final day to rationalize how we'll be fine without Pro Bowlers.
Until Chip Kelly gives us another reason to discuss those [former head coach] Andy Reid-era holdovers, it is time to look ahead. There are new faces in the locker room; there’s fresh talent on the field; there are impactful new skill-players in Kelly’s scheme. It’s time to give due attention to these guys & their future in the Eagles organization. The next couple weeks we’ll attempt to project the offensive production per unit: running backs, pass catchers, & QBs. We’ll start with the running backs. It seems only right they be the foundation of this series as they will invariably be the foundation of Kelly’s offense next season. Below is a reasonable—and conservative, by the way—estimate for what the new-look backfield may do this upcoming season.
Rushing (presuming 500 total rushes)
DeMarco Murray – 275 carries, avg. 4.5 yards/carry, 1250 yards, 10 TDs
This is the very definition of “conservative estimate.” In 2012, Murray totaled 161 rushing attempts; in 2013, 217 attempts; 2014, 437 attempts. Not only could the Eagles scale back his number of attempts but they absolutely should. Murray is their investment for the next five seasons. Kelly needs to do his best to ensure Murray stays fresh because, when he’s fresh, he’s fantastic. Murray does nothing if not get the hard yards and fall forward after first contact. As such, 4.5 yards per carry is a reasonably safe guess; 1,250 yards is just basic math after that. The only (marginally) aggressive estimate is Murray’s 10 touchdowns. McCoy last year had just five rushing scores & Chris Polk chipped in four. Murray won’t be giving up attempts near the goal line…he should get to 10.
Ryan Mathews – 175 carries, 4.0 yards/carry, 700 yards, 3 TDs
With Murray receiving the majority of the carries, 175 carries seems like a good balance between spelling Murray & taking from the bell-cow. It is close to the number Mathews got in 2012. That year he gave up 180 touches to the combined efforts of Jackie Battle, Ronnie Brown, and Curtis Brinkley. Those three guys combined basically equal Murray only, ya know, terrible & disastrous. The rest of the logic follows along the same lines as detailed above for Murray: four yards per carry seems fair, as does three rushing scores.
Darren Sproles – 50 carries, 4.5 yards/carry, 225 yards, 2 TDs
Sproles isn’t here to carry the load out of the backfield…at least not via the traditional handoff, anyway. We’ll get to his receiving numbers next week but he deserves 50 touches in any offense. The two touchdowns are really just the hunch he breaks a couple long that he ought not to have.
Totals: 500 attempts, 2175 rushing yards, 15 rushing TDs
Remember these are conservative estimates for the guys above. Things not considered: crumbling OL play, WR rushing attempts (end-arounds, etc.), rushing attempts from the QBs, etc. The above production will place the Eagles, likely, somewhere in the top 5-10 rushing teams in the NFL and is in line with what Kelly’s Eagles have done the last couple years.
