Opening Day and the first series came and went. The Phillies and Boston Red Sox met in Philadelphia for three games. Cole Hamels pitched for the Phillies, and the Boston Red Sox started Mookie Betts in center field and Blake Swihart will debut for AAA Pawtucket. Yet, the Phillies and Red Sox discussion does not seem to end. In fact, the Phillies, Red Sox and Hamels were the subject of a column today from Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
Rosenthal's column misses the point in a few areas, as he suggests a few premises that I disagree with.
1. Hamels' salary diminishes Hamels' value
Rosenthal makes the point:
"They're not getting Betts or Swihart for Hamels, not when the left-hander is owed at least $96 million over the next four years and holds a vesting option for a fifth season that could increase the total to $110 million."
This is the same Boston Red Sox that just gave Rick Porcello – a nice pitcher who is certainly above average – $82.5 million over the next four years. That tabulates to $20.625 million per season for four years. At $24 million per season, locked up, not too long a term, Hamels is a bargain. Clayton Kershaw got $30 million per year from the Dodgers, and Max Scherzer got $30 million per season (in present-day dollars) from the Nationals.
Plus, average annual values go up each season. If a number three starter (forget that he pitched second against the Phillies this week) is worth $20.625 million in 2015, what does that make an ace worth? If the Nationals win the World Series in 2015, nobody will be crying they "overpaid" for Scherzer. Look for Jordan Zimmermann to get a similar contract this winter.
2. The Phillies need to trade Cole Hamels, and it should be to the Red Sox
Rosenthal writes,
What the Phillies should do is restart talks with the Red Sox, understanding that Betts and Swihart are untouchable. The Red Sox, in turn, should make every one of their other prospects available, depending upon the overall package.
Really, this shouldn't be so difficult.
Why should they? The Red Sox seem like they are overvaluing their prospects under new GM Ben Cherington. The Red Sox have prospects to spare, but who would help the Phillies?
Rosenthal suggests:
The Red Sox boast surpluses of left-handed pitchers (Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson) and left-side infielders (shortstop Deven Marrero, third baseman/outfielder Garin Cecchini) who are close to major-league-ready. They've also got a number of other prospects at various stages of development who could interest the Phillies (righty Matt Barnes, outfielder Manuel Margot, third baseman Rafael Devers). Even Vazquez would be worthy of exploration, if the Phillies were willing to take on a catcher recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Some reports have had Owens and Rodriguez at the "untouchable" level. Remember, Rodriguez was traded for a two-month rental of Andrew Miller. Four or five years of control for an ace? And realistically, no one player on that list really makes a team feel like they have a gem.
3. The Red Sox feel they need an ace
Rosenthal writes:
The Sox, mind you, still need to trade for a pitcher of Hamels' caliber, no matter how good Clay Buchholz looked in their opener, no matter how much they're paying Rick Porcello. But Hamels will not be the only starting pitcher available before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, making the Phillies' seeming inflexibility all the more difficult to fathom.
I am not sure that the Red Sox are convinced of this. The rumored proposals made by the Red Sox for Hamels included "major league players"(Think: Jackie Bradley, Allen Craig). It never has sounded like the Red Sox made a serious offer, even outside of Swihart and Betts.
If they are hoping to hold out for a cheaper Johnny Cueto, it would still cost them two of the prospects on Rosenthal's aforementioned list. Further, the Reds may not wish to trade Cueto if they are in striking distance of the playoffs.
Plus, the Red Sox have other problems. Their 39-year-0ld closer they just signed to a two-year deal is on the disabled list. While he may return soon, how healthy will Koji Uehara be? The Red Sox clearly rebuilt…but did they build to win in 2015? Maybe not.
Check out Rosenthal's column here.
