When the news first broke that the Eagles were on the verge of signing Frank Gore, I was among those underwhelmed by the move:
Count me among those underwhelmed by #Eagles moves today. Sanchez and 32-year old Gore? Eh. Maxwell is good. But overpaid IMO. #eaglestalk
— Patrick (@PhillySportsJD) March 8, 2015
I get that Gore has been incredibly productive in his career, especially as of late. But at 32 and with over 2,500 career touches, he is fighting against father time and history, foes against which people simply do not win.
Let's start first with an article by Kevin Seifert at ESPN.com which measured the production of running backs by age. Seifert concluded that the "running back cliff" — that is, the age at which most running backs production saw a steep decline — occurred at 27. Here is the chart:
The two important take-aways Seifert reaches are:
- After age 27, running back rushing totals drop by 15 percent in one year, 25 percent in two and almost 40 percent by the time they are 30.
- At the time the article was written, there were 177 running backs under contract in the NFL. 128 (72 percent) were 26 or younger. Only eight runners were over the age of 29.
Another interesting article I saw on the interwebs was the decline in production after a running back has between 2,250 – 2,500 career touches. Check out the decline in yards per carry based on career touches:
Which brings us to Frank Gore. He turns 32 this year and has 2,785 career touches. A lot of people that supported the move have focused on the facts that (1) his yards per season have relatively stayed the same, and (2) he has not missed a game since 2010.
However, digging a little deeper reveals a more alarming trend — his yards per game and attempt have generally declined since 2009:
Age |
Yards/Game |
Yards/Attempt |
|
26 |
80.0 |
4.9 |
|
27 |
77.5 |
4.2 |
|
28 |
75.7 |
4.3 |
|
29 |
75.9 |
4.7 |
|
30 |
70.5 |
4.1 |
|
31 |
69.1 |
4.3 |
Gore's production seems to be mirroring what the data tells us: that older running backs, especially those with a lot of carries, decline in productivity. What's worse, the decline is usually sudden and sharp: think Shaun Alexander.
If the Eagles had signed Gore to a one-year, bottom bargain deal to serve as a stop gap for finding LeSean McCoy's eventual replacement, I would have less reservations about the deal.
But the Eagles were bucking history by giving Gore a three year deal with up to $7.5 million guaranteed. That's a lot of years and money to give a running back his age with the number of carries on his odometer.
If Gore's production continues to decline this year, it is safe to assume his production will decline even more in years two and three of the deal. Thus, while the Eagles front office might be disappointed Gore changed his mind, Eagles fans should be happy, because it seems Gore saved the Eagles from themselves.
Speaking of happy Eagles fans, it seems not all Eagles fans are upset with the move. This video tribute to Gore is absolutely hysterical:
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