(Note: This post has been updated after news broke of the LeSean McCoy trade).
Well, that escalated quickly. The Eagles just shocked the football world by trading LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills for Kiko Alonso. This came on after reports that the Eagles released high priced veterans Trent Cole and Cary Williams.
In the process, the Eagles have approximately $50 million in salary cap space. Leading many around the league to speculate that the Eagles are going to be big spenders in free agency. This comes on the heels of many reports that an Eagles trade for Marcus Mariota is "on the horizons."
In other words, the Eagles are expected to give up a number of high draft picks, both this year and in the future, to draft Mariota, and see free agency as the vehicle through which they can fill in the gaps left by the Mariota trade.
While no one can say definitively whether this approach will work, history is not on the Eagles side. Rarely do you see a team trade an inordinate amount of assets for one player or draft pick and come out ahead. The odds are even more stacked against you if you spend a boat load of money on expensive free agents in an effort to fill holes in your roster.
The successful teams in the NFL — the Packers, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks — avoid these two situations. They build through the draft and supplement through free agency with smart, often cost effective signings.
There are exceptions for sure. But over the long haul, the NFL has shown us that the teams that win the off-season rarely win when it counts most.
Big Trades for a Single Player
Reports emerged last Friday that the Eagles were on the verge of trading Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and three first round picks to the Buccaneers for the first overall draft pick, presumably to draft Marcus Mariota.
That trade obviously cannot happen now, with McCoy being shipped to Buffalo. But it shows the likely cost that the Eagles will have to pay to move up in the draft.
Adam Schefter is one of the most plugged in reporters in the NFL today. He was on 97.5 the Fanatic today and offered the following as a parameter that was consistent with the rumored trade with the Bucs:
Schefter: Is Philadelphia willing to pay 3 No. 1s and 2 No. 2s for Marcus Mariota? #Eagles
— Matt Lombardo (@MattLombardo975) March 4, 2015
I am not opposed to trading for Mariota, but only if the price was reasonable. These parameters, however, are anything but reasonable. They will have a significant impact on the Eagles ability to build a team long term, even if Marcus Mariota turns out to be a franchise caliber quarterback.
There are few examples of trades of this magnitude going down in the NFL (for good reason), but when it does happen, the teams that gave up a lot for one player have not fared well. Three immediately come to mind: Herschel Walker, Ricky Williams, and Robert Griffin, III.
When the Vikings traded for Herschel Walker, they were coming off a divisional playoff loss and were considered by many to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Adding arguably the next Jim Brown in exchange for a 1st round pick and 5 players made sense on paper. However, each of those 5 players were tied to conditional draft picks in the first through third rounds. This gave the Cowboys the option to take the high draft picks instead of the players, which is exactly what Jimmy Johnson did. After a series of additional trades, those draft picks netted the Cowboys future Hall of Fame running back Emmitt Smith, All-Pro safety Darren Woodson, star cornerback Kevin Smith and standout defensive tackle Russell Maryland. The Cowboys went on to win three Super Bowls in four years. The Vikings went 21-23 with Walker, making the playoffs once, but never winning a game.
In 1999, the New Orleans Saints traded their entire draft board, plus the following year's first and third round picks, to the Washington Redskins to move up from the 12th pick in the draft to the 5th so that they could draft Ricky Williams. The Saints went 45-51 over the next five seasons. Unfortunately for Redskins fans, Daniel Snyder was the owner and did a horrible job maximizing value from those picks (although to be fair, the Redskins did land Champ Bailey and LaVarr Arrington through the trade). So neither team really won that trade.
In 2012, the Washington Redskins were again involved in a mega-deal, this time dealing three first round picks and a second rounder to the Rams to move up from the 6th to the 2nd pick overall to draft Robert Griffin, III. The Redskins initially seemed to win the trade: RGIII won Rookie of the Year and led the Redskins to the playoffs. But it's been pretty clear since then that the Redskins got shafted in the deal. The Rams ended up drafting cornerback Janoris Jenkins, defensive tackle Michael Brockers (both 2012 draft picks), running back Zac Stacy, linebacker Alec Ogletree, wide receiver Stedman Bailey (all 2013 picks) and 2014 first-round pick Greg Robinson.
This lead to one of the most epic trolls in recent sports history, when head coach Jeff Fischer sent out all six players the Rams received in the trade as team captains this year when the Rams played the Redskins.
Well played, Fischer.
So if history is any indication, a Walker-like trade for Mariota will not work out in the Eagles favor. The trade will prevent the Eagles from upgrading their roster with first round talent for the foreseeable future, forcing the Eagles to hit on late round picks (unlikely) and sign big money free agents to fill in the blanks. And that would be all well and good if it actually worked. Only it doesn't. As we are about to see.
Free Agency Big Spenders
Fans love when their favorite team "makes a splash" in free agency. It's the little kid equivalent of a pixie dust sugar high, only for adult football fans.
Eagles fans were getting worked up about the Eagles new-found cap space on Twitter, suggesting the Eagles sign Ndamukong Suh, Byron Maxwell, and Devin McCourty, in addition to keeping Jeremy Maclin.
This isn't Madden. You cannot just go out and spend a boat load of money on players and assume they will all integrate seamlessly into a juggernaut. Allow me to channel my inner Herm Edwards — HELLO! Have we forgotten about the Dream Team already?
But this is not an example of over exuberance from the fans; there have been several reports which lend credence to this idea that the Eagles will use free agency to fill in the holes on their roster this offseason.
The Eagles are already considered front runners to land Byron Maxwell. A fact that might have been further confirmed when Maxwell fired his agent in favor of one with a good relationship with the Birds:
Seriously though, Byron Maxwell just switched his agent to one of the most #Eagles friendly agents in Ben Dogra. That's a pretty big deal.
— Anthony DiBona (@Anthony_DiBona) March 3, 2015
Further reports have come out linking the Eagles to Jason Worilds and Mark Ingram, among others.
If recent history is any indication, the Eagles could be in for a long season if they pursue multiple high priced free agents to make up for the resources they are giving up to get Mariota.
Let's break down the numbers. First, the most telling stat: the last four Super Bowl Champions ranked 16th, 24th, 6th and 17th in free-agent spending. Like I mentioned before, the best teams in the NFL simply do not go gangbusters in free agency.
So how did the big-spenders fare? Not well at all.
2014: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers spent $147 million in free agency last year, tops in the NFL, and finished with the worst record in the league. The Broncos ($128 million) and New York Giants ($111 million) rounded out the top three, and these teams averaged a two-win drop-off compared to 2013 (including the playoffs).
2013: The Miami Dolphins spent $160 million for tops in the league. While they improved on their win total by one game from the previous year, they still missed the playoffs. The Tennessee Titans spent $133 million in 2013, second most in the league, and finished 7-9.
2012: The Buccaneers again were big spenders, this time dolling out $162 million. But they still finished the season 7-9. The Bills were also big spenders ($129 million), signing the likes of Mario Williams, but finished 6-10.
2011: How can we all forget the infamous Dream Team off-season? The Eagles spent a fortune, only to end up 8-8, and followed that up with a 4-12 season with largely the same cast. The Carolina Panthers also spent big in 2011 ($198 million). They won just six games.
If you want to go back even further, check this article out from Gregg Rosenthal at NFL.com. The results are largely the same.
Again, this does not mean the Eagles will automatically fail if they sign a bunch of high priced free agents. The Denver Broncos spent $151 million in 2012, most of which was spent on Peyton Manning, and improved from 8 to 13 wins the following year. So it can be done. But it is safe to say that the odds are stacked against the Eagles.
But we aren't just talking about spending big in free agency. We are talking about compounding that mistake by also mortgaging the future in a Herschel Walker-type trade for Marcus Mariota.
I don't know if this has ever been done in the history of the league. But I think we have a good understanding of where this is heading with some simple math:
Herschell Walker trade (for Mariota) + Dream Team 2.0 = Bad season for the Eagles.
