Claude Giroux is trying to be Nostradamus again.
The Flyers captain said on Tuesday that there was "no doubt the Flyers are a playoff team." As of Tuesday, the Flyers had a 3.9 percent chance of making the playoffs. Is there a way? Certainly. Is there no doubt? Absolutely not.
Giroux has reason to be upbeat. The Flyers are on a season-long four-game winning streak that has the team flying high. Despite that, the standings still offer slim hopes for playoffs. The Flyers are still 10 points out of a playoff spots with 31 games to go.
But the next three – the first of 12 in February – are the most crucial to Giroux's comments being fact or fiction.
The Flyers are currently on a four-day break after winning their fourth straight game last Saturday – a 1-0 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs. When they return, they will face the New York Islanders, leaders of the Metropolitan Division.
A four-game winning streak is impressive, but aside from an emotional and spirited game against the Penguins – old news at this point – and a strong effort against the Winnipeg Jets on Wednesday, wins over the Arizona Coyotes and Maple Leafs aren't exactly season-changing.
The Islanders pose the first test on Thursday. The Flyers also face the Montreal Canadiens, a team with wins in five of their last seven games, next Tuesday. In between, the Flyers will be in Washington on Sunday afternoon. The Capitals hold one of the wildcard spots at the moment.
Giroux's confidence in the Flyers playoff hopes could translate in the standings in that game, as well as another Sunday afternoon meeting between the two teams two weeks later on Feb. 22. If the Flyers win both games, they make up four points in the standings, leaving six points between the two teams. In the two weeks between the two games, the Flyers will play five other games – four against Columbus and Buffalo. Columbus has lost seven of their last 10 games. Buffalo had lost 14 straight games before winning on Tuesday.
In between meetings with the Flyers, the Capitals face San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and the New York Islanders. Only the Kings sit outside the playoff picture.
So long as the Flyers don't pull the same act they did following the holiday break in December – losses to Arizona, Carolina and New Jersey all in the same week – they could easily make up the five points in that time.
In the three games before the Flyers begin that stretch, the Flyers need to keep their recent run of success going. It will require a win over the Capitals on Sunday and a win either at home against New York or on the road against Montreal. If the Flyers could manage points in all three games, the Flyers will have what will likely be their only opportunity to make a comeback.
The other thing the Flyers have going for them – there aren't teams to leapfrog in the standings. The Florida Panthers are the first East team outside the playoff picture. The Flyers trail them by three points.
It's very easy to look at the Flyers 51 games played and see how much catching up there is to do for other teams. The New York Rangers have already played twice since the Flyers last game and still have three games at hand. But in Washington's case, there is no separation. After the Capitals 4-0 win over the Kings on Tuesday, both teams have played 51 games.
Obviously, the timing of Giroux's comments this season aren't nearly the same as last season. Giroux predicted last season's comeback to a playoff appearance in November. It's the beginning of February and time is not a friend of the Flyers this season.
But that 3.9 percent chance – which dropped to 3.6 percent after Tuesday's games – actually carries some weight if the Flyers handle the task at hand. They can't control the other teams and understand that.
This has been a different team on the ice of late and it is finally translating on the scoreboard.
In another month, it may also translate in the standings. That's on Giroux and the Flyers.
Kevin Durso is managing editor for Flyerdelphia. Follow him on Twitter @Kevin_Durso.
