While the Super Bowl is a week away, the Eagles have already begun preparing for the 2015 season. We will be providing you with more in-depth analysis regarding free agency and the draft in the coming months, so make sure to check back here for content.
But before breaking down potential targets for the Eagles, we are going to do a little self-scouting. We cannot offer solutions unless we identify the problems first. And the Eagles have several problems that must be fixed if they want to make a deep run into the playoffs. So here are the top areas that the Eagles need to address this offseason, in order of importance
1. Player Personnel /GM
Weren’t expecting to see this here were you? Look, in today’s NFL, it is critical to have a personnel guy that is great at scouting and finding value in the draft. And this remains true even though Chip Kelly will have complete control over personnel decisions.
The Eagles have been unable to fill the position so far, with rumors circulating that top candidates have shied away from the job because it does not offer final control over the roster and because of the ongoing pissing contest between Kelly and Howie Roseman.
However, all is not lost. I suspect (ok, hope) that the delay is the byproduct of the Eagles waiting to hire someone from Seattle or New England. Of course, they have to wait until the Super Bowl is over to make it official.
If that does not work, there is always the possibility that the Eagles promote from within. Ed Marynowitz is considered one of the best young executives in the NFL, and has a good working relationship with Chip Kelly. So as far as backup plans, we could do a lot worse.
Regardless of who they hire, the Eagles need to get this decision right. They simply cannot afford to hire a yes man that does not challenge Chip Kelly on roster decisions. It needs to be someone adept at scouting players, understanding value in the draft, and have enough organizational clout to push back when Chip Kelly tries to draft the next Taylor Hart in the third round.
2. Corner
We are splitting hairs between corner and safety, but I give the edge to corner because it is the more important position in today’s NFL.
According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles pass defense ranked 20th in the league in terms of DVOA. That is actually better than I expected, but once I dug into the numbers it became apparent why.
The Eagles do not have their top corner (in this case, Carey Williams), shadow the opposing team’s top wide receiver. Rather, as we saw against the Packers, Cowboys and Redskins down the stretch, for better or worse, the Eagles put Williams on the right side of the field, and the much maligned Bradley Fletcher onto the left.
This helps explain why the Eagles had almost identical DVOA rankings against a team’s first wide receiver (24th) and second (20th). However, when you break it down by the side of the field in which the pass was thrown, a clearer picture emerges: the Eagles ranked 18th for passes thrown to the right side of the field (again, Williams), but ranked 31st for passes thrown to the left side of the field (in this case, Fletcher). (The Eagles ranked 12th against “other” receivers, which traditionally means the slot. So they are OK there next year with Boykin).
In other words, these numbers confirm what we already know: Bradley Fletcher was getting beat like he stole something all season long. And whether through willful ignorance or a lack of viable alternatives, Billy Davis stuck with Fletcher until the end of the season.
If we can put the boneheaded penalties and melodramatic personality aside, Williams is actually a viable option for a second cornerback., as he ranked 18th overall in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. He excelled in that role for the Ravens when they won their latest Super Bowl, and he was clearly miscast as a number one corner for the Eagles. So the Eagles need to upgrade the position with at least one stud this offseason. Otherwise, it will be another long season for the Eagles next year.
3. Safety
Eagles fans are longing for the days that #20 was roaming center field. Brian Dawkins was a generational talent that could cover a ridiculous amount of space but also lay the wood like Ron Jeremy. He was the tone setter of the defense, and the Eagles never found a suitable replacement.
While it is unclear who the Eagles will get, one thing is certain: Nate Allen is not the answer. He has limited range and lacks the requisite football instincts to be a starting caliber safety. Sure he made a couple of plays this year. But even a blind squirrel finds nuts sometimes. Allen made the mistakes you don’t expect to see from college safeties, let alone starting safeties in the NFL. It’s time for the Eagles to move on.
However, all is not lost for the Eagles, as they solved at least one safety position by acquiring Malcom Jenkins last offseason. He is the DeMeco Ryans of the secondary: a pro’s pro that is smart, disciplined and a natural leader that should do well for the foreseeable future.
I would not be at all surprised to see the Eagles address this position in both free agency and the draft. And if the Eagles do nothing else besides invest heavily in the secondary this offseason, I will consider it a success.
4. Quarterback
I did not put this here because I think the Eagles need a new quarterback. As I wrote last week, I think Nick Foles is the best option for 2015, and possibly beyond.
The reason I put it here is because the Eagles need to reach a conclusion on this position one way or the other. If they want to move forward with Nick Foles, great. If not, they need to make that decision now. We are entering year three of Chip Kelly’s five-year contract. And if Nick Foles is the answer, then they need to do everything they can to build a championship caliber team around Foles over the next two to three years. If Foles is not the answer, then Kelly needs to find “his guy” so that we are not in a perpetual state of uncertainty. One way or the other, I want to see the Eagles bring some finality to the position this offseason. The last thing they can afford is to waste another year without a solution to the most important position in the NFL
5. Guard
While I want to see the Eagles attack the secondary with their first two picks in the draft (assuming the corresponding value matches up), I would not at all be surprised if they get an athletic guard in the first or second round instead. The running game is the engine for Chip Kelly’s offense. But it was limited by the injuries to the Eagles offensive line last year.
Part of that is the product of luck. But part of that is the result of old age. While the Eagles have Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson, two of their starting lineman will be 33 (Jason Peters and Todd Herremen) and one will be 34 (Evan Mathis). Matt Tobin, who the Eagles were high on at the start of last year, was inconsistent in limited playing time. It’s unclear whether he has the potential to be a starter, or he is just a quality depth player. But given the rash of injuries last year, they can ill afford to risk going into next season with Tobin as their best backup.
This past season, the Eagles adjusted run blocking ranked 30th in the NFL according to Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. Their pass blocking excelled in some areas (ranking 9th overall), but struggled in others (ranking 32nd in adjusted sack rate at 4.9%).
The impact on the running game was obvious. In 2013, behind a healthy offensive line, LeSean McCoy led the NFL in all-purpose yards, and ranked first and third respectively in DYAR and DVOA. In 2014, however, McCoy ranked 16th and 24th. While McCoy did not help his cause at times, he was clearly limited by an ineffective line.
The Eagles should have addressed the offensive line last year in what was a deep draft for offensive lineman. They failed to do so, but cannot afford to repeat that mistake this year.
6. Edge Rusher
Having an impact edge rusher is up there with having a great quarterback, left tackle and cornerback. However, unlike the positions we highlighted above, the Eagles have some depth here. Connor Barwin is obviously the leader of the group, having turned in a Pro Bowl caliber season with 14.5 sacks. If the Eagles can bring back Trent Cole on a discounted deal and/or sign Brandon Graham, then the need for an edge rusher becomes less apparent. If, however, the Eagles fail to bring these players back, then edge rusher should get moved near the top of this list.
The Eagles are in this position because the player they drafted to bolster the pass rush, Marcus Smith, was a major let down in 2014. While that is obviously disappointing on many fronts, the good news is that many scouts and draft experts, including Philadelphia’s own Mike Mayock, believe this is one of the deepest drafts for edge rushers in recent years.
Put this down as a position to keep an eye on. A lot will be determined by whether we can retain Cole and Graham. If not, expect the Eagles to aggressively pursue upgrades in both free agency and the draft.
7. Middle linebacker
I had hoped by the time that I got down to item number 7, I would not be discussing a “pressing” need, but such is life. DeMeco Ryans has clearly lost a step in coverage, and will lose at least another after he tore his achilles tendon this past year. Thus, outside of Mychael Kendricks, the Eagles have a glaring need for inside linebackers. They might be able to get away with a quality depth signing in free agency and hope that either Travis Long or Najee Goode can contribute. But that is a risky proposition. Long is coming off a torn acl, after tearing his other acl during his senior year in college. Goode was expected to push Ryans for playing time last year until a torn pectoral muscle cut his season short. While he has flashed upside, he has yet to produce. So at a minimum, the Eagles need to bring in a veteran free agent to push Goode and Long during training camp.
So there it is. The list of the top areas the Eagles need to address this offseason. Check back for more in-depth coverage on which players can potentially fill these holes.
