The Detroit Tigers were absolutely desperate for relief pitching. Instead of grabbing two Phillies relievers: Jonathan Papelbon and Antonio Bastardo, whom they could have had for next to nothing, the Tigers took their chances with who they had. And the result was an ugly one, as the Tigers were quickly eliminated from the playoff, with "bullpen failures" the cause for failure. If recent signings are any indication, the Phillies may indeed find a match for Papelbon this offseason.
The Red Sox closed out the 2014 with a 39 year-old closer in Koji Uehara. Looking at the available closers on the free agent market, what did they do? The Red Sox signed Uehara for his age 40 and age 41 seasons. The dollar amount was $9 million per season for two seasons, risky for someone who is north of the 35 mark, let alone the 40-year mark.
Papelbon is signed for $13 million in 2015. A 2016 vesting option for $13 million again will vest if Papelbon finishes 48 games in 2016. If Papelbon avoids injury, this is a manageable number, considering Papelbon finished 52 in 2014. Papelbon will pitch at 34 years old in 2015 and 35 in 2016. If Uehara can earn $9 million a season, is Papelbon a better value at $13 million times two, which would only be times one if Papelbon either gets injured or pitches poorly to the point he does not close? That answer is a resounding yes.
The free agent closers on the market are nothing to get excited about. On MLB Trade Rumors' ranking of the top 50 free agents, the top-ranked closer is Sergio Romo at number 35. MLB TR suggests he finds a "strong three-year deal somewhere", but Romo was removed from the Giants closer role in 2014 in June after struggling. Santiago Casilla ended up the Giants' closer for much of the stretch.
After Romo on the rankings? Jason Grilli at number 47. Phillies fans know him too well; the Phillies let Grilli opt out instead of giving him a spot on their roster over Drew Carpenter, Danys Baez, or David Herndon. Grilli went on to be a solid closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates. That is, until 2014. Grilli was so bad in 2014 that the Pirates did not wait until the third month of the season was over before trading Grilli to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Grilli regained some consistency as a middle reliever, but opening next season at age 38, he will be a risk to be a closer.
Do not forget that the Phillies were willing to kick in some money. If Papelbon could be had for the price of Uehara, he would be worth much more to whichever team trades for him. Perhaps the Detroit Tigers, with a shaky Joe Nathan and losing Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke to free agency would take both Papelbon and Bastardo this time around. They owe such a move to their fans. As for the Phillies, they owe the job to Kenny Giles and owe the fans a look toward the future.
