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| If Ruben and Co. are telling the truth, get ready for a lot more bad ball. |
So the Oakland A's decided to go all in a few days ago, and pull a mega-trade with the Cubs. They went ahead and traded for Cubs' ace Jeff Samardzija and solid starter Jason Hammel, two of the names most frequently talked about as being available for a trade. The A's paid for it too, sending their top prospect, major league starter Dan Strally, and more to the Cubs to get these guys. In one foul swoop, they significantly altered the market for starting pitching, and upped it's value. Of course, the Phillies could be in a position to benefit from this, with ace starters Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, as well as three solid mid-to-back-end rotation guys in A.J. Burnett, Roberto Hernandez, and Kyle Kendrick on their roster. Any of them could be available. Of course, Ruben Amaro Jr. says the change in the market place does not change the Phillies plans.
So, here's where we are- Ruben seems oblivious to reality, David Montgomery is worried about ticket sales if the team rebuilds, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are seemingly happy with the mess their in more so than going elsewhere, and meanwhile the team is 37-51. Two-thirds of the starting outfield isn't starting caliber, the offense on the whole isn't good, and the bench is a joke.
Am I missing something?
Either these guys are all playing coy with us, or they're living in an alternative reality where this team will improve. The Phillies core elders (Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, and Byrd) make roughly a combined $66 million this year, and will do so again next year. Their ace two starters make a combined $48 million a year, and will next year, and their rotation as a whole makes around $75 million. Their closer tacks on another $12.5 million a year. That is $153.5 million this year, and $131.5 million or so is re-committed for 2015. This has been the situation virtually since 2011, and isn't changing. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Sure, I know some people love the core of the old championship teams, and some of these guys have done some nice things this year, but it's not good enough to even joke about contending. Why spend so much to lose?
Yes, I know, "they aren't the problem," or whatever this week's argument to not rebuild is. Here's the reality, the Phillies operate on a budget. That's why they haven't made high-impact moves to build a better team around these guys. Giving out $153.5 million to eleven players has meant living with John Mayberry Jr. and Tony Gwynn Jr. on your roster. It's meant Antonio Bastardo. It's meant having to live with about three or four young fireballers in the bullpen learning how to pitch on the job. It's meant Dom Brown and Ben Revere. It means gambling on Mike Adams, or worse yet Brad Lincoln. Or worse yet even, not that long ago, Chad Qualls, Michael Martinez, and the Nix brothers. You might not like that the Phillies self-imposed salary cap is the luxury tax number of $189 million. You don't own the team though, and neither do I, and keeping around the "good" players, the valuable-ish inventory, takes up too much space to build a decent roster. Reality is a cold, hard thing.
At the very, very least, the Phillies should move some of the no-brainers. Why pay Jonathon Papelbon, who's been good this year, to close for a bad team. He's both blocking them from trying out a Ken Giles or Jake Diekman in the ninth (both of whom might not be ready, but who knows), and getting paid to do nothing. Trade him for salary relief, or pay someone to take him and get some ready-prospects to help rebuild faster, but don't keep him here. Three of the starters in the rotation could be free agents after this year- are you telling me that trading them now in a sellers market isn't smart? Honestly, if someone wants John Mayberry Jr., you're telling me you shouldn't trade him? I might even give you there are cons to trading Hamels, Lee, Utley, and Rollins, but you're telling me it's dumb to trade Papelbon, Byrd, Burnett, or Kendrick? Even if it just saves money, so what? I'd do this now as a minimum. In the off-season, I'd try to do even more, and unload the guys that people want to argue over trading, if I can't move them for value now.
The Phillies, I have to believe, can see what any sober-minded fan can see. I have to believe that Ruben and Montgomery are posturing, knowing that how they do in selling at this deadline, in the waiver period, and in the off-season, will determine the medium term success of the team. With that said, it's annoying, because this team didn't have to get here. They had a great home-grown product in place when Ruben took over in 2009, and they've went backwards since. They did it with bad contracts. They did it with bad drafts. They did it with bad trades. They've done it bad every which way, and are now left with a team with significant financial obligations in contracts, and little farm system ready to help them out. To watch these guys play coy now is ridiculous, and frankly offensive to fans who continue to support this team, as I'd imagine anyone reading this piece is. I mean, they don't have to admit to us all out loud that trading Cliff Lee to Seattle was a mistake, but at least if you're going to make me watch Phillippe Aumont in Philadelphia or Allentown, tell me we're going in the correct direction moving forward. That's not unfair for fans to ask.
