The Phillies have found themselves in a rut, with no real consistency in the offense. The most consistent Phillies are the ones that many dismissed: the older Phillies whose prime came in the late 2000s. Given the Phillies' recent struggles, the Phillies need to take advantage of the production from the older players and reset their lineup to maximize production.
Leading off: Ben Revere has not been what the Phillies or their fans have hoped for in the leadoff spot. Revere was placed at the top of the Phillies' lineup because he has speed. If he gets on base, the reasoning goes, he can steal bases and be a productive force on the basepaths. However, Revere has underwhelmed to the point that Corey Seidman of CSN Philly questions whether or not Revere is an everyday player and has the numbers to make his case:
This season, though? Revere in 36 games has hit .268 with a .284 on-base percentage. He's walked three times in 142 plate appearances — that 2.1 percent walk rate ties him for dead last in the majors with Jean Segura and Khris Davis of the Brewers.
Over his last 13 games, Revere has a .196 OBP in nearly 50 plate appearances, all out of the leadoff spot.
Which invites this question: Is he even an everyday player?
Right now, the answer appears to be no. And it's not just because of a bad 13-game stretch. It's because Revere is a below-average defender and has absolutely zero power. When he's not timing the ball and hitting singles, he doesn't do anything else well enough to make up for it.
Could the Phillies bury Revere further down in the order? Possibly. Based on what we have seen this season, it is clear that Jimmy Rollins is the best option in the leadoff spot right now.
One of the reasons I took to new manager Ryne Sandberg last season was that he was willing to break the mold he inherited, and one of those molds was a "Jimmy Rollins must lead off" mold. But this season, Rollins seems best suited. Through 36 games, Rollins is hitting just .267. But, with 19 walks- way ahead of last season's pace – Rollins has gotten on base at a .357 clip.
So, if Rollins bats leadoff, who would bat behind him?
A rather unconventional number two hitter, Carlos Ruiz has excelled in the opportunities he has had there this year. In 14 at bats hitting second this season, Ruiz is hitting .571 with a .700 on base percentage. While that is clearly not the pace he would keep, Ruiz hit .333 with a .385 on base percentage last season in the two-hole. In that spot, Ruiz slugged .667 for a 1.052 OPS last season.
Chase Utley would be the obvious choice to follow Ruiz, given his strong production, and Ryan Howard would bat fourth. Howard is on pace for 30 home runs and 94 RBI, a number that could increase if Revere is swapped out for a more productive hitter at the top.
Marlon Byrd would continue to hit fifth. Byrd is hitting .295 for the Phillies this season, with an on base percentage of .340 and OPS of .879. Byrd has hit in an even .300 in the fifth spot, driving in 21 runs.
In summary, the Phillies first five batters would appear like this:
- Jimmy Rollins SS
- Carlos Ruiz C
- Chase Utley 2B
- Ryan Howard 1B
- Marlon Byrd RF
Then the question is, what next?
The regular Phillies lineup this season began with Revere, partially because they wanted to avoid having too many left-handed hitters in succession. This will be a challenge in this proposed lineup, since the remaining three regulars not mentioned above are lefthanded: Ben Revere, Domonic Brown, and Cody Asche.
In short: too bad.
The Phillies cannot afford to sacrifice the production at the top of the lineup worrying about left-handed hitters. The Phillies can use their bench to make a change against left-handed starters that would minimize the effect.
The Phillies sent switch-hitter Cesar Hernandez down to AA to work on the left side of the infield. Hernandez could play third base against left-handed pitchers, giving Cody Asche a day off. Hernandez returned from the minors and Sandberg said that he would get some action at third base. The Phillies do not appear to consider Hernandez an option in center field. That experiment did not go so well last season.
Darin Ruf could play left field against left-handed hitters to give the Phillies an extra option, but Ruf is currently at AAA. While he is on the roster, John Mayberry could get a start in left field or even in center field to break up the left-handed hitters 6-7-8.
One wild card would be having the Phillies play Marlon Byrd in center against left-handed pitchers. Byrd has primarily been a corner outfielder the last couple of seasons. In 2010, Byrd played only center field for the Cubs. In 2011, Byrd played 118 games in center. In 2012 Byrd played center 33 times for the Red Sox before his suspension, and played two in center in 2013 for the New York Mets.
Byrd would be passable defensively, and allow the right-handed Mayberry or Byrd to help balance the lineup in right field or left field. Whether the Phillies would want to take the defensive risk of a Brown / Byrd / Ruf outfield remains to be seen. But the offense needs the help.
Against right-handed pitchers, the Phillies could choose to bat Brown sixth, Asche seventh, and Ben Revere or Tony Gwynn in the eighth spot, and use their right-handed batters on the bench later in the game against a left-handed reliever.
If the Phillies indeed plan to compete with these players, then they should always be looking for the best possible chance to win. A new lineup would accomplish this, starting with Jimmy Rollins.
