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| Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
The Boston Red Sox are ahead of the Cardinals 3-2. Thank God, if there's any fan-base I hate, it's St. Louis. Their smug happiness reminds me of a crooked televangelist, and I can't stand it. Any fan base that claps for a closer after a blow save is no good for me. Go Boston (I just threw up).
As soon as this reprehensible World Series is over, we'll be just days from the off-season. The Phillies enter this off-season with $120.5 million committed to eight players (three starting pitchers, two relievers, and three infielders). Most of us assume that arbitration eligible players Ben Revere, Kyle Kendrick, and Antonio Bastardo will all be back, or traded. Most of us assume that club-controlled players Cody Asche, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Erik Kratz, Darin Ruf, and Jake Diekman, at the least, will be back or traded. Put the Phillies in the $133 million area to start with 17 players likely to be on the team. Chooch is likely to be back, let's say at $7 million per year for two years, putting us at $140 million in. Seven of our eight position players, four of our five pitchers, four of our seven relievers, and four of our five bench players being under contract. At most, let's assume $49 million to spend, between us and the luxury tax.
Ready, go.
Name your wish list. Tanaka. Beltran. Colon. Balfour. Take your pick, but be ready to spend. You can, possibly, look at dealing Revere, Ruf, Pettibone, or God-willing, Papelbon, but it's not easy. If Ruben is smart, he doesn't break the bank for Giancarlo Stanton or David Price, just as his system is recovering from his pillaging from 2009-2011. Sure, in my dream world I could send Asche, Ruf, Revere, Biddle, and a mountain of cash for Stanton, but that's not happening. Sure, shrewd internet analysts say trade Dom Brown at high value, and get a mountain of prospects, but Ruben can't publicly give up on 2014 while he's $140 million in deep to start with. His ownership won't allow it. Don't even dream of trading Rollins or especially Howard. Not happening.
So, what?
Well, start by watching some of the winter league ball, where lots of Phillies prospects are doing well. Then, recognize that we are a very valuable franchise, even before the looming monster-TV deal. The Phillies, who make a peanuts $30 million range right now for their TV deal, should expect the floor to be around $200 million, and if they play it right, closer to $300 million annually. Also, they'll see about $25 million in increased revenue from the MLB TV deal. In other words, they have money to spend.
But you don't just go throwing around money like the Howard deal, you do have a little more room for error. Want Tanaka? Well, go ahead and post the fee if you want. Want Beltran? He's in range. Ubaldo Jimenez? He may not be a big risk to us. The Phillies don't have to be cheap. They should just be smart. Paying Matt Garza based on the Lincecum deal is probably not worth it. They need to be smarter, but they do have the money to spend.
I'm personally looking for them to be a little bit daring on the trade side. I'm higher on Cesar Hernandez than most, and think Maikel Franco will be ready to play in 2014. I'd entertain deals that need to include Revere or Asche, if needed, to get them done. I'd be willing to entertain trading out players with value to get chips to re-stock the system. I'd like to see some shrewd trades.
Hopefully we're one game from the 2013-2014 off-season. The Phillies are going to need to be activist in this off-season, unlike the last two, and look to change this team's identity. They're not one good player from contending. They might be one solid player from 81-81, which is to say, one solid player from nowhere. Get aggressive and try some new stuff. Hopefully Ruben hires a stats nerd (and I say that lovingly), and there's a new TV deal, before free agency. If so, this could be a fun off-season.
