Remember 2008? It was a long time ago. I remember watching us win though, and for that reason, it's pretty hard to watch what is happening now. The great run of 2007, the thrill of the 2008 title, the afterglow of 2009, and having the best record in the game during 2010 and 2011. It was a great time to be a Phillies fan. It was fun. Watching John McDonald and Michael Martinez lose every night is not. The Phillies are becoming not just a second division team, but maybe one of the current worst 25 man rosters in baseball right now. Luis Garcia, Cesar Jimenez, Zach Miner, B.J. Rosenberg, and Raul Valdes are all out in the bullpen. McDonald, Martinez, Casper Wells, and John Mayberry Jr. are on this roster (I'll hold out 1% hope for Wells yet). It's not hard to see this season will end in the 95 loss territory, if not worse, just two years after winning 102 games.
So what has gone wrong? The easy thing to say is that the team aged, but I think that falls flat. It's easy to say they got expensive, but again, I think that falls flat. It's easy to say their talent evaluation in filling out the roster, but I think that falls flat. Put them all together? You might be onto something. So how does the current situation contrast with the 2008 team, and others during that run? Glad you ask.
In 2007 and 2008, the Phillies were running a pretty home-grown team under Pat Gillick, who also knew how to bargain hunt. In their line-up, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, and Carlos Ruiz were all entirely home-grown, while Shane Victorino was a Rule 5 guy that the Dodgers let us stash in AAA for a year. Jayson Werth was out of baseball before we picked him up in 2007. Pedro Feliz was a relatively cheap, short-term pick-up to fill out the 2008 line-up. In 2007, they paraded out no real third baseman, the awful Rod Barajas (sometimes), and Aaron Rowand, but moved all of them out afterwards in favor of the younger, cheaper 2008 line-up. The 2008 rotation included former first-round picks Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, scrap-heap 2006 trade pick-up Jamie Moyer, and home-grown back-enders Kyle Kendrick and J.A. Happ. Yes, they did trade for Joe Blanton, who no one wanted at the time in Philadelphia, at a significant, but modest, price. Of course, there was Adam Eaton, who was gone by the stretch run. The bullpen? Home-grown Ryan Madson, waiver pick ups J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre, scrap-heap signing Chad Durbin, true scrap heapers Rudy Seanez and Clay Condrey, and of course Brad Lidge, who the Phillies did pay a significant price for (Michael Bourn). Then there was the bench, filled with the likes of Eric Bruntlett (throw-in with Lidge), Chris Coste (literally an independent leaguer), Greg Dobbs (also off the waiver scrap heap from Seattle), Geoff Jenkins (at the end of his solid career), Brad Harman (who?), So Taguchi (I believe signed on a one year deal), and Matt Stairs (obtained for basically nothing from Toronto). The only long-term contracts on the entire team belonged to Burrell and Rollins (both signed under Ed Wade), and Burrell's was running out after that season.
What can we learn from that?
Gillick believed in home-growing as much as possible. His line-up had significant turnover from 2007 to 2008, and he filled his holes largely in-house. Giant, long-term deals weren't his specialty, and because of that, he had room to make the "nickel and dime" pick-ups he needed. His rotation was home-grown at the top, pieced together through the middle, and home-grown at the back. His bullpen was a collection of guys who weren't household names either. His bench? Lots of guys who could spell a starter regularly, but also some guys who could flat out pick up a bat in the 8th inning and go give you an at-bat.
What has happened since then started almost immediately, albeit slowly. Raul Ibanez was given a healthy three-year deal to replace Burrell, one that was a real drag by year three. Home-growing a staff was slowly replaced by paying for one, albeit again to pretty good results. The Phillies gave successive three and four year deals to closers Brad Lidge and Jonathan Papelbon that are both not looking so brilliant. Substantial free agent contracts were given both outside the organization (an aging Polanco), and inside (Jimmy Rollins), and of course the Phillies gave Ryan Howard an A-Rod/Pujols-esque $25 million a year deal to play the very interchangeable first base. If you look at the 2013 line-up this team put out, the only sub-30, home-grown player in it was Dom Brown. That's it. Instead, since 2008, they have handed out multi-year, major league deals to Howard (twice), Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Ruiz, Lee, Halladay, Hamels, Kendrick, Blanton, Lidge, Madson, Papelbon, Adams, and Contreras. Again, they haven't developed a single position starter post-2008 besides Brown.
It's not that Ruben didn't try to find his Jayson Werth, diamond in the rough player, he did, it's just that it was Delmon Young, who everyone knew wasn't that level of guy. Coming off of an 81 win season, the Phillies thought that Delmon, Michael Young, and Ben Revere would turn them back into a 95 win team. They banked on improving health from players a year older, in the cases of Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay. They thought they'd get something better from Mayberry and Laynce Nix, which is the definition of insanity. There is a very real major league scouting problem in Philadelphia, not to mention a little bit of loss with reality.
So bad development of potential new starting players, bad major league scouting, big contracts, and obviously the team got older. The philosophy on the whole could just be indicted. I mean it's great that we're now seeing the emergence of the J.P. Crawford's, Maikel Franco's, and Carlos Tocci's of the world, and we're signing internationally now, but that's not going to help us get better fast. The break in talent development forced us into essentially having to bet on a Delmon Young. The reality is, we're basically forced right now into again hoping for a resurgence from three aging infielders, and that Cody Asche and Darin Ruf can play, if we even want to be a better than .500 team next season.
The best thing that the Phillies can do right now is to probably stand-pat with their best prospects, and hope they can develop a team. Crawford, Franco, Tocci, Jesse Biddle, Roman Quinn, Kelly Dugan, and Shane Watson are just a few names worth mentioning, but really trading anyone in that group to get a quick fix for this big league club over the winter doesn't make much sense. Try and develop a team, and try to get a look at a Cesar Hernandez, an Adam Morgan, or anyone else in the upper level minors that is good enough to warrant a look now. Stop handing out monster deals to aging players, and get some new big league scouts. Will any of this fix this team over night? No. Is any of this particularly insightful on my part? No, others have said each of these things. Is it worth us reviewing how we built a good team in the first place? Yes. Anything that maybe sheds some light on a pathway forward is probably worth a look.
