Quiet Deadline Leaves Phillies Looking Mediocre, Delusional for Future

Photo Credit: Kevin Durso, Philliedelphia

After a hot start had them thinking about making a few additions a couple weeks back, the Phillies' lackluster performance against legitimate contenders like the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers left little doubt around the rest of baseball—the Phils would be sellers. 

They had all of the characteristics. At 11.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves on July 31, the Phillies' hope of making a run at the National League East crown had slipped away. They currently sit nine games out of a Wild Card spot and would have to overcome at least four teams to make a run. 

It's just not going to happen, and this club had a few players that realistic contenders would find quite valuable. Players in the final years of their contracts—namely Chase Utley, Michael Young, and Carlos Ruiz—certainly interested contenders. Had they been more open to negotiation, Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon could have been moved as well. 

But Ruben Amaro Jr. is a stubborn man. Instead of taking advantage of a golden opportunity to reduce the age of his roster, shed payroll, and add top-tier talent, he stuck with his belief that pitching wins championships, made excuses about injuries, and failed to own his past mistakes. 

All of those aforementioned players? Well, they are still wearing red pinstripes. Amaro looked at his sputtering roster and didn't make a move, ranting about being competitive in 2014 and how his big money players need to step up to the plate. 

Can they? 

The Phillies have made no bones about their desire to compete in 2014 and Amaro has been quoted several times over on his belief that their best chance is with Lee and Cole Hamels atop the rotation, which was a large reason no major move was made at the deadline. But what about the rest of this club? 

After dangling Lee to the Boston Red Sox, the Phillies refused to make a deal without the inclusion of top prospect Xander Bogaerts (4), although Jackie Bradley Jr. (21), Anthony Ranaudo (37), Garin Cecchini (41) all represented the Red Sox on Baseball America's midseason top 50 prospect rankings, and would have replaced the Phillies' top prospect, Jesse Biddle, who does not appear until 43. 

While standing firm on the inclusion of Bogaerts was a noble stance, the Red Sox farm system is very deep, and the notion that the Phillies could not vastly improve their farm system without the inclusion of Bogaerts is nothing short of false. 

But Lee still has years of control left on his contract, and any potential deal could be revisited this offseason. The same cannot be said for Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz, particularly the former, who drew heavy interest from the Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Baltimore Orioles—all division rivals. 

In fact, the Yankees, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, were prepared to absorb Young's contract and send the Phillies a prospect, only to be rebuffed by Amaro. They then asked about Ruiz and were told the same—he wasn't as available as we thought. 

While the nibbles on Papelbon were not nearly as consistent as the aforementioned players and the Phillies clearly prefer to keep Utley in Philadelphia, this is a team that missed an opportunity to seriously re-tool their farm system. 

Dealing three players—Lee, Young, and Ruiz—would have gone a long way in adding some decent position prospects for the future. For now, however, nothing changes. And that begs the real question here: How can the Phillies realistically be competitive in 2014? 

First thing's first: We have to look at the payroll. 

The Phillies will clearly be built around starting pitching. Assuming the contract of Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez becomes offical and Kyle Kendrick is offered his final year of arbitration, the Phillies will pay four starters, including Lee and Hamels, roughly $68.5 million. 

They will pay three relievers—Papelbon ($13 million), Mike Adams ($7 million), and Antonio Bastardo (roughly $2.5 million in arbitration)—a total of $22.5 million. 

Assuming the club eventually hammers out an extension with Utley that pays him somewhere in the neighborhood of $13 million, they will have committed $52 million to five players: Ryan Howard ($25 million), Utley (about $13 million), Jimmy Rollins ($11 million), Ben Revere (roughly $2.5 million in arbitration), and Domonic Brown (about $500,000). 

If you're keeping score at home, assuming that the club extends Utley sometime this summer, the Phillies will have guaranteed roughly $143 million to 12 players before Amaro and his front office even sit down to formulate a plan. 

Now you have some holes to fill. 

Third base is a tough one, with few options on the trade and free agent market. Cody Asche made his MLB debut this week and Maikel Franco has been tearing up Double-A, so it would not come as a surprise to see either of those two play third base in 2014. 

That's one cheap option. 

You're also  going to need a corner outfielder, assuming that the Phillies will be open to having Brown play either right or left field. Jacoby Ellsbury could be an option, but he is an oft-injured Scott Boras client that should earn around $17-20 million per season. 

Shin-Soo Choo, also a Boras client, currently boasts an on-base percentage of .418 and would certainly help the Phillies in that regard, but he'll be demanding a contract similar to that of Ellsbury in terms of AAV. 

The other free agent options are less appealing. Carlos Beltran will be 37. Nelson Cruz is facing a suspension for his involvement in the Biogenesis saga, and the Phillies have been there, done that with Hunter Pence. 

The club's lone internal options at this point are Darin Ruf (pre-arbitration) and John Mayberry Jr. (entering first year of arbitration). 

We'll also have to assume that Tommy Joseph is not ready to become the starting catcher in 2014. Brian McCann will be the cream of the crop for free agent catchers, with the second-best option likely familiar one—Ruiz. 

Then we'll have to determine who our fifth starting pitcher will be. What are the club's feelings regarding to Roy Halladay, who is currently rehabbing an injury? Will John Lannan  be offered arbitration, or is he a non-tender candidate? Is Jonathan Pettibone pitching well enough to retain a rotation spot? How about Adam Morgan and Jesse Biddle? 

And you're not finished yet. 

How are you going to upgrade that horrendous bullpen, especially now that we are unsure of what Adams will contribute in 2014? Do you go with the young guns and call 2013 a season of growing pains? Do you bring in a few veteran free agents? Remember, Chad Qualls and Chad Durbin didn't work out so well. 

Then you have to build a bench. Laynce Nix and John McDonald are free agents. Erik Kratz will likely return as the backup catcher, and Kevin Frandsen, in his second year of arbitration, could be a steal. 

So without having made a move at the 2013 trade deadline, the early 2014 roster shapes up to look a little something like this: 

1. Ben Revere – CF – L (~$2.5 million)
2. Jimmy Rollins – SS – S ($11 million)
3. Chase Utley – 2B – L (~$13 million)
4. Ryan Howard – 1B – L ($25 million)
5. Domonic Brown – RF – L (~$500,000)
6. Darin Ruf – LF – R (~$480,000)
7. Cody Asche – 3B – L (~$480,000)
8. Carlos Ruiz – C – R (~$7-9 million) 

Balance issues aside, this is a lineup that is going to have some problems against left-handed pitching, and the obvious, big-money solutions (Ellsbury and Choo) are both left-handed. 

1. Cole Hamels – L ($23.5 million) 
2. Cliff Lee – L ($25 million)
3. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez – R (~$8-10 million) 
4. Kyle Kendrick – R (~$10 million) 
5. Jonathan Pettibone (~$480,000) 

Again, starting pitching is going to be the strength of this club. Logic aside, my gut feeling is that the fifth spot in the rotation will actually go to Halladay on a one-year, incentive laden deal to help him re-establish some value. 

1. CL – Jonathan Papelbon – R ($13 million) 
2. SU – Mike Adams – R ($7 million) 
3. SU – Antonio Bastardo – L (~$2.5 million)
4. MR – Jake Diekman – L (~$480,000)
5. MR – Justin  De Fratus – R (~$480,000)
6. MR – Mike Stutes – R ( ~$500,000) 
7. MR – Jeremy Horst – L (~$480,000) 

The bullpen has been Amaro's Achilles heel for the last few seasons. Don't think that you're going to get away with throwing a bunch of young relievers against the wall to see who sticks and be competitive. You're going to have to spend on at least one proven arm. Jose Veras? 

1. Erik Kratz – C – R (~$480,000)
2. Kevin Frandsen – IF – R (~$2 million)
3. John Mayberry Jr. – OF – R (~$1 million) 
4. Freddy Galvis – OF – S (~$480,000)
5. Left-handed outfielder – (~$2 million)

So as you take a look at that roster, allow me to remind you that the Phillies did absolutely nothing to improve their club for the future at the trade deadline this summer. 

If you're following along at home, that very rough estimation of a roster has the Phillies committing $160.34 to their payroll. That leaves them with roughly $28.66 million under the luxury tax, not including player benefits and that sort of thing. 

Feel free to play along and upgrade the roster as you will, but there is no doubt about it: Ruben Amaro Jr.'s delusional thinking at the trade deadline has set the early outlook on 2014 at much of the same it has been for most of this season: Mediocre. 

Doing nothing with this opportunity may have been the final nail in the Phillies' proverbial coffin.

Follow Greg on Twitter: @Greg_Pinto