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| Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
So the Phillies are done. Like, majorly done. Done done. After finishing the first half at 48-48, and being in striking range of first place, they went 1-8 to start the second half on the road, and proved they were pretenders. After beating up on a mediocre pitcher in the first game back, the Phillies couldn't beat either of the Mets young guns, and then couldn't win a single game against World Series favorites St. Louis and Detroit. The result is a 49-56 team that is getting ready to sell off for the deadline.
Jonathan Papelbon is ready to leave, so he says. Michael Young has said he would waive his no-trade clause for the right team, and the Phillies have put him on the market. They may not be aggressively marketing Chase Utley, but if they cannot sign him, watch that change. We do know that Jimmy Rollins isn't waiving his no-trade clause, and that the Phillies are apparently not making Cliff Lee openly available.
Got all that? If not, that's okay- bottom line is we're getting ready to have a flea market in Philly.
Now any trades, and who should be in them, should be dictated not by wins this year, but rather by what kind of team the Phillies want to put out onto the field in 2014 and beyond. What does that mean? Let's go area by area over this team.
Starting Pitching-
Alright, so what do we have? Well, our initial rotation of Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, and Lannan are all on the roster still, and Halladay should return sometime in August from his surgery. Jon Pettibone, Tyler Cloyd, and Raul Valdes have all made starts for this year's team. Ethan Martin and Adam Morgan are both in AAA, and Jesse Biddle is in AA, and all could be up in the next two years. Morgan just returned from the DL and went three shutout innings on Saturday for the IronPigs. After all of those names, consider it also a lock that after giving $50-60 million to Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, he will be in the big leagues no later than next year. That's 12 options for the rotation in 2014, with Halladay and Lannan as free agents, and Kyle Kendrick approaching his last year of arbitration. So what does 2014 look like?
Let's make two presumptions right now- At least one of Hamels and Lee will be back, and Gonzalez will have every crack at winning a spot. In addition, let's assume for a second that Lannan, Cloyd, and Valdes have no chance, and Biddle is really unlikely to make it to start the season. Let's go a step further and say that it's highly unlikely that Cliff Lee is likely to go, meaning Hamels, Lee, and Gonzalez are likely to be in the 2014 rotation. That leaves two open spots and five potential people to fill them.
If the Phillies do nothing to their rotation, the likely outcome is that Kyle Kendrick and Jon Pettibone fill out the spots. This puts Ethan Martin and Adam Morgan chasing spots, and Roy Halladay likely gone. Now, Halladay will return next month, and I would presume that if he throws well, the Phillies would at least be interested, putting Pettibone on the chopping block, as is. The question is, would the Phillies be better off dealing away a Kendrick now, hoping to get a piece or two for him, or guaranteeing him somewhere in the $6-8 million range in arbitration? If you trade him, you probably guarantee Pettibone a spot in the rotation too for next year, at least to start. If Halladay doesn't throw well though, the Phillies would probably have to go get another starter on the free agent market.
My sense is that Kendrick should be available for whatever you can get for him. Losing him doesn't dramatically impact the team. He's about average for a starting pitcher, and you can probably get similar value from one of the young guys. If Halladay comes back healthy and 80% of himself, he's a better pitcher, and much more worth a one year deal for 2014. Going into the season with a Hamels, Lee, Halladay (or a free agent), Gonzalez, and Pettibone, with Mogan and Martin available to break through, gives the Phillies a shot. For that matter, I'm not so sure that even if you don't fill the Halladay slot with him or a free agent, you don't get more value giving Martin or Morgan that slot, rather than sending Kendrick back out there at a higher price tag. I'd trade Kendrick. My only caveat is that I'd reconsider this, if you trade Lee, which I would not do. Obviously, I'd trade away Lannan for some salary relief or a fringe prospect. You're not re-signing him anyway.
Line-Up
Ok, so Jimmy Rollins isn't leaving. Let's assume he's back. Let's also assume that Dom Brown is back. I'd guess that Ben Revere is back unless he's either a.) traded with a bad contract to move it, or b.) they find an upgrade. Assuming those three are back is easy. You should also assume a return by Ryan Howard, in no small part because no one will eat the last three years of his contract, especially hurt. So assume a corner outfield, a center field, a first base, and a shortstop slot filled.
The hard choice is what to do with Chase Utley. Coming up to free agency, I'm on the record saying I would not pay him a big-money, three year plus deal. If the Phillies can move a different contract (more on that later), and get him for a two year deal, or a three year deal for a reasonable price, I'd re-think that. With that said, I'm not crazy about re-upping on a player with bad knees and 34 years of age on him. Hopefully for us, Chase doesn't want to hamstring the team with another bad contract, goes team friendly in exchange for three years (similar to Jimmy's deal with us after 2011), and understands that we need flexibility to improve this club. My guess is that he will, he'll get his extra year, and it'll be club friendly. I'm guessing Chase signs an extension very soon, and we won't trade Utley. I'm kind of fine with this either way, though I'm very nervous about giving out another big deal.
That leaves Michael Young, Carlos Ruiz, and Delmon Young, all of which I would trade, if I can. Young is the one getting the most attention, and he should be sent for some value. He has attention from Baltimore, New York, Boston, and Texas, at least. He's the easy one. Delmon Young is basically getting no attention, and has little to no value. With no value, I really don't care what the Phillies do with him, so long as they don't have him on the Opening Day 2014 team. I would think at some point they can move him, but they won't get anything of value. If not, just release him. As for Chooch, I'm surprised that there isn't more talk about dealing him. Going into a contract year, at his age, the Phillies should be willing to part with him, and shouldn't be looking to re-sign him.
Moving forward, the Phillies appear to be in need of a corner outfielder, a third baseman, and a catcher. I'd like to see Cody Asche get a shot to win the third base job this year and next (in part because I'd like to move Franco to a corner outfield spot). Erik Kratz is a possibility at catcher, but the Phillies would probably pick up another catcher too, so my guess is that they end up bringing in a new catcher. The other corner slot is a mystery at this point, as the only actual options they have are Mayberry and Ruf, both of which also could be used in a Howard platoon (or quasi-platoon), in my dream world next year. Don't count Cesar Hernandez out of figuring into something, somewhere here, as he's had a great year, and he's learning to play the outfield now. Speaking of Cesar, that also reminds me of another crazy possibility in my mind: that Revere is not securely in that job. Due a raise after this year, and a skill-set with limits, don't be stunned if he's on the block later, complicating this more.
Bottom line is, I'd trade at least three of these guys, and am very open to adding Utley to that list, though I doubt it happens.
Bullpen-
Ok, so the obvious question is what will happen with Papelbon. My opinion? Trade Papelbon. His contract is just too big and prohibitive, closers are not valuable enough to hold onto in sales, and I fear his best days are behind him. He can still be a big help for a team that is close to winning now, but he is not of value here, and if you want to compete in 2014, the Phillies can replace him more than adequately.
So the remainder of the Opening Day Bullpen- Mike Adams (injured, done for the year), Antonio Bastardo, Chad Durbin (Cut), Phillippe Aumont (mess in the minors), Jeremy Horst (injured, done for the year), and Raul Valdes (disaster that got DFA'ed, and is somehow back)- is a mess that needs a massive replacing. The only guy from that group with literally any value right now is Bastardo, whom I would be willing to move if I could get a good return. Yes, I know he's the only valuable piece, but the Phillies need to turn a lot of valuable pieces into two and three valuable pieces. Adams, Aumont, and Horst will all remain under control, but have no value right now, and you can only hope they show up ready to go for next year.
The Phillies have tried a lot of other guys, with limited results this year. Mike Stutes has already come and gone, and is hurt again. Joe Savery is on the DL right now, though he has looked much better this season. B.J. Rosenberg stunk, again. Justin De Fratus and Jake Diekman have had up and down years, while J.C. Ramirez has been terrible. Luis Garcia has been surprising so far in his performance, but it's questionable that he is a long-term option.
The bottom line is that this group is a mess. There isn't much to trade after Papelbon, and certainly not much value coming back.
The Bench-
There's not much here of value. Kevin Frandsen could be valuable, but at just $800,000 this year, there's no pressing need to deal him. Laynce Nix, Michael Martinez, and John McDonald all bring very little to the table. Erik Kratz is going nowhere, given the uncertainty of the catching situation going forward.
Given that there's not much value here, the only guy that may be moved is John Mayberry Jr. I'm not a big Mayberry fan, but he can play all three outfield slots and first, and has some pop in his bat. That would make him seem to be a good target for contenders, and he'd be good to move. He would be due a raise next year, and he's not really worth a raise. He and maybe (possibly, praying) Nix could get some interest.
Going into next year, my guess is that you're looking at a current bench of Galvis, Hernandez, Frandsen, Kratz, and someone else picked up in the off-season or Ruf. In other words, expect more changes here.
Conclusions-
I'm pretty open to the Phillies holding a fire-sale, flea market style event to move out players who are free agents after this season, and any big contracts we can move. This team isn't going to realistically turnover the whole roster by next season even, but if they want to contend in 2014, they will need to move out some older pieces, and turn them into multiple pieces to fill holes. That is not easy to swallow, but it's the reality.
In short- trade any of Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan, Carlos Ruiz, Delmon Young, Michael Young, Jonathan Papelbon, Antonio Bastardo, John Mayberry Jr, and Laynce Nix, as well as Chase Utley if he cannot reach an extension deal now (you can always sign him in the winter, if you want). Fire sale this thing away, and let's see some of the kids come up this August and September. It's time to look to 2014, and just put this 2013 mess behind us.
