The 33-37 Phillies are a non-contender. They'll probably be a seller, at least nominally. The thing is, teams that can run routinely a $150 million plus payroll shouldn't be bad, and certainly not for very long. This team needs to re-build quickly, and should be looking to put an improved product on the field in 2014 at the very least, and a contender in 2015. How would I go about doing that?
Here is the key to me on evaluating any player:
- Is there a market for said player?
- Can I get at least some talent that will help me in the next two years? I don't badly need salary relief with the money coming off the books, but if I'm dealing away a big contract, I will expect some salary relief too. Basically, I want fair value back for anything I deal.
- Can I replace said player reasonably with either a talent I have/get in return, or that I can reasonably expect to sign on the open market?
- Can I get a look at one of my minor league talents now by clearing the player out?
Now, based on those criteria, let's move forward. We'll start with the absolute keepers:
- Dom Brown- He's 25, and emerging as the best player here. Self-explanatory.
- Cole Hamels- I can't get fair value with his season as is, nor can I replace him.
- Freddy Galvis- For what purpose do I trade him?
- Ben Revere- Given his age, and recent hot streak, let's see the whole year.
- Cliff Lee- If you offered Jurickson Profar and paid him, maybe he's possible, but short of that, you shouldn't deal him. You again, can't replace him easily on the market.
This brings us to the group where you have to receive a very good offer to consider trading. This group is considerably smaller.
- Jimmy Rollins- Would I like to move Jimmy's contract? Yes, but i'm not dying to. If the offer's good, trade him, but if not, he's still a nice piece to bridge the gap going forward.
- Kevin Frandsen- Not that there is a market here, but he's useful enough.
- Antonio Bastardo- I'm not ready to hand him over to someone, but I'm willing to see his value on the market.
- Pettibone, De Fratus, Diekman, Savery, Stutes, Aumont- They're all young and cheap, and should stay, unless their presence somehow helps unload some dead weight.
Now, the people who should be totally available for a fair price.
- Jon Papelbon- Paps is a great closer, which means some GM will overpay for him. You can unload his huge contract, and you can easily get a closer on the market that is adequate this winter. Remember, the '09 team reached the World Series with bad Lidge.
- Kyle Kendrick- Let's be serious, he's been better than we thought, but he may get $8-10 million in arbitration. That's crazy, trade him while he has value. You can replace him.
- John Lannan- If he can show he's healthy and throwing well, and someone wants him, why not take that trade.
- Chase Utley- I know a lot of fans will hate this, but it's a no-brainer. If Utley can show he's healthy, and you can get something back, move some of his money, not go through the agony of not re-signing him, and get a look at Galvis/Hernandez for a while, you do it.
- Michael Young- Pretty much the same for him as Utley, but with Asche instead of Hernandez. Someone may want these guys for their track record.
- Carlos Ruiz- Chooch? Yes, Chooch. He's a 34 year old catcher approaching free agency. I don't want to sign him for his 35, 36, and 37 year old years. Move him for some value now or let him walk.
- Jeremy Horst- I'd be willing to move him, and he may have value, as he still has some upside.
- John Mayberry Jr.- You want him, you make an offer, you have him. His value is over-stated by many fans, and while I'm not willing to give him away for a bucket of balls, I'd gladly send him somewhere that needs a righty bat.
- Laynce Nix- Take everything I said on Mayberry, and just substitute lefty for righty.
And now, the all-dump team if at all possible, though it's highly unlikely:
- Ryan Howard- I'd gladly dump him, though absolutely no one would be buying right now.
- Mike Adams- This two year deal suddenly looks worse than it ever did before. I hold slim hope out that a stupid GM will want him.
Now that I've just turned this team into a flea market, and I know that not all of these players will be gone, the question is what will next year's team look like? Well, I want to use August and September to figure that out as well as possible. My take right now is that we'll need a corner outfielder, second baseman, third baseman, and catcher for next year's line-up. We'll need at least two right-handed starters, and a third starter to fill in the rotation. We'll pretty much need to entirely re-tool the 8th and 9th innings, and maybe up to five relievers. I'm content re-starting my bench with Frandsen and Kratz on it too.
I'd like to get extended looks at Cody Asche, Cesar Hernandez, and Freddy Galvis. I think the three could fill in two holes in this infield, and maybe a bench slot too for next year. Darin Ruf could get a look then too, as he's getting hot right now. I'd like to see if he can play both first and outfield in the majors, and do both regularly. If Roy Halladay can heal up and come back to throw this season, perhaps he could be re-signed at a steep discount for next year to fill one slot as well. I'd also like to see this team promote minor league prospects such as Jesse Biddle, Maikel Franco, Cameron Perkins, and Aaron Altherr just to get a good look at them against better competition. The idea should be that at the end of the season, you have enough of a sample size to make some educated decisions about who can play on a winning team in 2014 and 2015, and who can't. It's another good reason to fire sale.
I'd expect for us to need at least an outfield, starting pitcher, and catcher on the free agent market. We will have money though- we shed somewhere in the $50-60 million territory in free agency even if we do nothing. It's important that we actually know where that money needs to be spent, and not that we just throw it around on the name of the week.
