So Jon Pettibone threw really well last night for a big league debut, which doesn't shock me. Sometimes a good debut means you're a future Cole Hamels, sometimes it means you're Carlton Loewer. You shouldn't get overly excited, or totally dismissive, because he did pitch good, but lots of young guys have quick success before people have seen them much.
I have seen plenty of Pettibone though. I saw him a couple times last season, and I saw his first start in AAA this year. He is not a future ace, but he could and should be a decent big leaguer some day. He's got a nice 91-92 type fastball, and a good sinker when he's on. His best games are the games that put you to sleep. That's a profile that seems to go high end #3, and low end #5. I wouldn't put too much stock into last night, or his two rough starts in AAA.
Pettibone was not the "big" start by a young guy last night. That still goes to Jesse Biddle. All he did was punch out 16 last night in Reading, over 7 innings. If you were wondering, I haven't seen him pitch yet, and it's one of the things I really want to do this summer. And every summer going forward.
So far this summer I've seen Ethan Martin (twice), Pettibone, Cloyd, Brody Colvin, and Zach Miner (ouch) start minor league games. In terms of what I saw, I was probably most impressed with Colvin to be honest, and he's actually come out of the gates okay for once, pitching to a 3.97 ERA in his two starts before going on the 7 day DL (I'm not sure why). I did see Adam Morgan in the Lehigh Valley-Reading scrimmage, and he looked bothered by the extreme cold that night, but he's pitched excellent since then.
Being that the Phillies are likely to have 2 or 3 openings in next year's rotation, how do all of these young arms rate right now? I'll give you my best crack, which I'll base on their ceiling and likelihood to actually be a starter in the end. I think it's obvious who I'll rank #1, but still, here's my list:
- Jesse Biddle- I'd be kind of surprised if he didn't make the 2014 rotation right now. He's got a 2.16 ERA in Reading, which makes it very possible that he is in Lehigh Valley by June or July if he throws like that. Simply put, he strikes me as a guy who flies through these levels and opens next season as a fourth or fifth starter, unless they hold him back until June.
- Adam Morgan- I'd be pretty surprised if Morgan is not making his MLB Debut before the end of this season. He's dominated the minors since we drafted him out of Alabama, and he's dominated AAA so far this season. He's the best pitcher so far on that team, as he's been on every team so far that he's been on. He's got a solid fastball, and a great slider. If he can work on a third pitch, he's ready. He's not yet, but he will be soon.
- Jon Pettibone- Am I ranking him higher than you would? I suppose so in some cases. I think he's the safest guy in the system. Pettibone is a guy who has to consistently get ground balls, but he can grow into that guy. I'm hesitant to compare him to Kendrick, if for no other reason than I think he may be ahead of where Kendrick was, but being a sinker-baller, Pettibone does have to do the same things we used to say Kendrick did.
- Ethan Martin- He's certainly more talented than Pettibone, but he's in AAA and still has some struggles with control and command. He's got a great fastball, and actually good stuff on the whole, he just seems to get behind in the count sometimes and get into trouble. I'm a believer he ends up being a closer or high-leverage spot reliever some day. He's a strong bet to make the bigs.
- Brody Colvin- He's a guy with a high ceiling, and he came out of the gates well, but now he's on the DL. I'm not sure why, but he was a late scratch from his last scheduled start. This is kind of a make-or-break year for him, and he could fall on this list. He could also move way up it too.
- Seth Rosin- He's throwing pretty well so far, and seems to be adapted after being traded for Hunter Pence last year.
- Tyler Cloyd- I don't think he can make it as a full-time starter. He's a AAAA guy at best.
- Austin Wright- He's on the DL right now. I liked his numbers last year, but have never seen him.
- B.J. Rosenberg- I think he's a reliever, which is why he's so low on this list. I like that they have him stretching out though, and getting more innings.
