Breaking Down the 2013 Phillies’ Issues

He Better Have a Big Year.

It's one week until baseball season starts. On Friday, the Phillies will be back in town, and playing exhibition ball. For the first time since 2007, most Phillies fans don't feel like they have the best team in the National League East. For the first time since 2005, there are some who don't feel the team is all that good. There's a legitimate argument this could be the 1985 of this group (last year was the 1984 under this argument).

I don't buy that this team is some hopelessly old, broken, and declining team. I do think this team has at least one more run in them, and this could be a very good year. I take the stance that the 2012 Phillies were not a team who had diminished talent, but diminished health. I believe the one thing that holds back the 2013 Phillies from winning the NL East over the Nationals is that while the two teams are built rather similarly, the Nats will get their star players on the field for more games this year. Bottom line, the Phillies should be good, but they'll be as good as they are durable.

Coming out of the spring, the Phillies have a couple of major issues-

  • Roy Halladay and a return to great performance by the starting pitching- It's fair to say that Roy Halladay's health is a big question mark. Either he better come back to normal performance, or the Phillies other four starters better be really on the ball this year.
  • Who's the third outfielder?- Dom Brown and Ben Revere have had some solid spring trainings. Darin Ruf didn't go win the third spot though, and he's starting in AAA. Delmon Young's starting on the DL. The Phillies are left with John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, and Ender Inciarte to try and fill out the third spot for now, and then it doesn't get much more clear later.
  • Will the infield play and play well?- Ryan Howard and Chase Utley played half of last season, and didn't play it overly well. With that said, they did show some power in their half season (both were on pace to hit nearly 30 homers), and the team won a lot more games with them. If they both play more games (like 130 or more), and perform better (.800 plus OPS), this team can go further.
  • Who catches, and how well?- Carlos Ruiz will be suspended, and apparently not on anything this year. Erik Kratz has to repeat last year. How close can the production get to last year's?
  • Who pitches behind Papelbon in the bullpen?- The Phillies think the bullpen is going to be a strength this year. How well Mike Adams, Phillippe Aumont, Antonio Bastardo, and Chad Durbin do could be a very big clue for how well the team did. They lost 13 games they lead in the 8th last year. Cutting that down may have made them a playoff team.
How well these issues are answered basically will dictate how good the team is. I have a hard time seeing things all going perfect enough to have this team succeed in the same way as the 2011 team did. With that said, I do think they can win 90-95 games if things go way more well than not, and they can be a playoff team. If they can get to the post-season, why can't this season end magically?
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