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| Doc Operates |
The Phillies have played seven games now, and we're under a month from Opening Day in Atlanta, so we can start to make some assumptions about the team that will take the field. With that said though, we'll start with the news of recent days.
- That Ball's Outta Here re-caps yesterday's win over the Yankees.
- Over at High Cheese, Ryan Lawrence writes that Aumont is looking like a lock. He also said he was clocked at 94 mph yesterday, very good for so early. We won't see Aumont now until the WBC is over, or Canada is out.
- Matt Gelb writes about Darin Ruf's adventures in left. I'm going to be stupid and blame this on the wind for now, but it's a concern if it continues. With that said, it's been really windy down there.
- Ryan Lawrence talks about Ryan Howard's first week.
- Dom Brown-Ruben Amaro parodies are the cool thing to do these days.
I honestly have to say that I'm pleased so far. Doc's velocity is where it should be, and all the pitchers appear healthy and effective in the rotation. Aumont's emergence gives us five bullpen arms. Howard and Utley appear healthy, and Howard is raking. Dom's emergence is exactly what I hoped for, and Ruf's at least keeping his head above water so far (offensively). There's nothing to freak out about, yet. We know that will change, but at least with the WBC going on, I can be distracted.
Now, my roster projection, based on my best guess for this team:
- Rotation: Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan
- Line-Up: Rollins-SS, Revere-CF, Utley-2B, Howard-1B, Young-3B, Brown-RF, Ruf-LF, Kratz-C
- Bullpen: Papelbon, Adams, Durbin, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, Stutes
- Bench: Frandsen, Nix, Mayberry, Galvis, Quintero
- DL: D. Young
- Restricted: Ruiz
- Last 5 off: De Fratus, Diekman, Inciarte, Betancourt, Savery
So my early take is that Inciarte has impressed me enough to say that I'd like to see the Phillies work something out to keep him. I just see very little space right now on this roster for him. I guess if we found a way to keep Michael Martinez in the organization though, why not him? Also, I'm amazed at how little anything has moved so far- this is the same team I predicted a month ago. Stutes hasn't been great yet, but De Fratus hasn't either, so he hangs on, for now.
This takes me down to AAA, where there are some changes so far. Schwimer got traded, and Blanco's not in camp anymore, so this team is changing a bit. One of the hardest things for me to figure out is who will win the fifth starter job down there, as I think Cloyd and Pettibone are locks, and Lopez and Cook are pitching well enough to have a job if the Phillies want to keep them. They still have Brian Bass on the AAA roster, could put Rosenberg in the rotation, or could end up giving a job to Ethan Martin or Adam Morgan. The decision on Cook has to be made by the end of the month, and I believe he has to be added to the 40 man or he can opt out. The Phillies will have one roster spot open if Inciarte doesn't make the team, so that storyline still has to play out. I'm sure Betancourt is in a similar spot though. Oh, and we're leaving out the Asche decision on where to play him, and the catching decision, for now.
So while you digest all that, here's my projected team that certainly not take the field for the Iron Pigs on Opening Day, but is the best we can guess right now:
- Rotation: Cloyd, Pettibone, Lopez, Bass, Rosenberg
- Line-Up: Gillies-CF, Hernandez-2B, Betancourt-SS, J. Mitchell-RF, Mather-LF, Fields-3B, Overbeck-1B, Valle-C
- Bullpen: De Fratus, Savery, Valdes, Diekman, Robles, Jimenez, Ramirez
- Bench: Orr, Lerud, Martinez, D. Mitchell, Susdorf
Some tough calls here, but I figured I'd get creative. I'm saying Rosenberg starts again, Valle is here and Joseph in Reading, and Jimenez and Miner get to stay. Lerud is here, for now, until Quintero gets out-righted when Ruiz is back.
Here's what we can tell of Reading, based on this:
- The rotation looks like it would be Martin, Morgan, Rodriguez, Biddle, and Hyatt- right now. I think Colvin is sent back to Clearwater.
- Friend and Simon start the year in the AA bullpen, but could move up. Michael Cisco, Brendan Lafferty, David Buchanan, Colby Shreve, and Chance Chapman are my other bets to be here.
- Other players to keep an eye on here- Tommy Joseph, Cody Asche, Jiwan James (I guess), and Leandro Castro.
I'll have more on Reading soon, but for now this is the best I can do.
I have a feeling that the minor league rosters will be harder to get right this year, with the World Baseball Classic taking time out of camp, and not enough game time in minor league camp to get a feel for what the Phillies have in mind. Major League camp will keep more guys up than normal to fill out at-bats and innings pitched while some guys are away. Either way, this is a decent guess, for now.
