I recently said I didn't want us to continue to pursue Angel Pagan at the price he was commanding. I really don't want us to. Pagan's above average, but above average is a bad four year bet. Rosenthal is reporting Pagan and the Giants are close to a deal. I really hope so.
So who will the Phillies land? Someone new will be on the team by spring training, that we know. We also can hope they'll be so soon, so we can buy the jerseys for Christmas, but at least right now, there's not many rumors of impending moves at the Winter Meetings.
So with that said- what do I think will happen? Here's my most likely outcomes between now and the spring, in order of likelihood.
- Michael Bourn signs in Philadelphia- I know people think he's asking too much, and he is, but where are the alternatives on either side? Upton, Span, and Pagan are gone from the possibilities. If Bourn costs too much, what is Hamilton's price? For Bourn, the Braves and Nationals are off the table. He almost needs the Phillies, and they almost need him. I'm not his biggest fan, but what other outcome is there?
- Kevin Youkilis signs in Philadelphia- Seems too high on the list, right? Apparently the Phillies and White Sox want him, so it's a question of how bad the Phillies want him. Will they lose out on another target? I'm betting no.
- The Phillies trade for a center-fielder- Dexter Fowler, Peter Bourjos, Curtis Granderson. Name your name here, but wouldn't a trade make a lot more sense, especially if they did sign Youkilis? If the Phillies really don't want to commit to Bourn or Hamilton, this makes a lot of sense. Even Alphon
- The Phillies sign Josh Hamilton- This is not a no-brainer, but to me it makes the most sense. Bourn's expensive? Well then, if we're going to spend a lot, sign the best player on the market. I think six years at $150 million with strict rules to protect the investment (dealing with his addiction past) is a lot, but it's fair. Signing Hamilton instantly upgrades the offense, adding a top five hitter in the game to this team.
- The Phillies make a collection of smaller moves- Jeff Keppinger? Put the money into a Mike Adams type bullpen signing? Maybe even Ichiro. I'd be less than shocked right now if they went this route. It's better than overpaying an Angel Pagan.
What am I leaving off? A Chase Headley trade, which I'm not at all against. I just don't see why San Diego would take calls on him. While we did just witness the Marlins dumping every dollar they could, that should be less rare. Notice Toronto and Atlanta spending so far? That's because MLB is about to start a new national TV deal next season. Revenue will increase for every team. If you know more money is coming, why trade away your faces of the franchise? That's what sells the tickets, so even a cash-strapped team like the Mets can keep a David Wright. I don't think they'll find a lot of teams dying to dump revenue.
