The Phillies will not win a sixth consecutive NL East in 2012. That's a sure thing. The Washington Nationals are likely to finally get to call themselves champs of something. The Phillies' fate in the East has been decided for weeks.
But is there hope?
The Phillies are eight games out in the Wild Card hunt, but playing good baseball right now. At 65-70, It can be assumed that they would have no shot if they don't win 20 of the next 27 games, or more. That would get them to 85 wins, which is still likely to be on the outside of the race, but it may be enough this time. There are still eight teams either leading, or within ten games of the Wild Card, so there are likely to be more competitive games this September, since that leaves eleven of the sixteen teams in the league as alive right now. So while 88 is the average over the last decade of what the second Wild-Card needs to get in, it may not be the case now.
The Phillies sit behind a lot of teams though. The Braves and Cardinals are leading, but the Dodgers (.5 games out), Pittsburgh (2.5 games out), and Brewers and Diamondbacks (7.5 games out) are all ahead of the Phillies at eight games out. That is both a blessing and a curse. Having three teams in the central playing hard is good as none are likely to lay down and give the other a sweep. The Cardinals must still play the Mets (next two days), Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, and Reds amongst the playoff contenders. The Dodgers have to play the Giants, Diamondbacks (two), Cardinals, Nationals, Reds, and Giants again. The Pirates have to play the Reds, Brewers, Mets (four games), Reds again, and Braves. The Brewers come off of beating on the Marlins of the world and get the Braves, Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals (four games), and Reds. The Diamondbacks have the Giants for two more, then the Dodgers (two), Giants again, and Giants a third time. In other words, all the teams in front of us have to play some games against teams with legitimate chances of making the playoffs. You should be rooting for plenty of splits right now, to drag these teams as close to .500 as possible. A 14-13 finish for the Cardinals gives them 87 wins. They lead right now, so no one does better in total wins at .500ish amongst the others.
The Phillies you ask?
Four games into their road trip, they're a 9th inning meltdown from perfect. That may very well haunt them. They finish up the next two days with the Reds, then get a GOLDEN opportunity to pick up room, playing three with struggling Colorado, broken-up Miami, and at long-forgotten Houston for four. Those ten games represent a great opportunity to get that eight game deficit down before they play the Mets in New York, Braves and Nationals in Philly, in Miami for three, and finish up in DC for three. Again, they need at least a 20-7 finish to even have a shot, and that's hoping for a sub-.500 finish from the Cardinals and Dodgers, no better than .500 from the Pirates, and a lesser finish than they put up themselves from the Brewers and Diamondbacks. No pressure, right?
Sad as I am to say it, I don't think it happens.
There's just too many variables, and the Phillies are going to need between 20 and 23 wins in 27 games, which is crazy hot. If it happens that the four teams we're chasing back out of the playoffs, great. If we push our way in, great. I'm not banking on it though. With that said, 17-10 gets the Phillies to 82 wins, and a winning season. Given the injuries they've faced, and the way they've found ways to lose games, I'd be pleased with that.
