Phillies: 2022’s Updated National Predictions

By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor

Following the normal ups and downs annually, Philadelphia Phillies fans still wonder which team they can pigeonhole. And although they had played .500 ball in April, they were eight games under .500 for May. However, they are 25-11 (.694) since June 1, so they were all three in the first half. And? They also paced themselves.             

81 Games After:

Beware Phillies faithful because the stretch drive is a different animal. Realistically, stars go all out, and it’s not something they can do for a full 162 without having an empty tank in September. But while playing around .600 ball forces the execs to plug late-July holes, it doesn’t guarantee a playoff berth.                        

Put Another Way:

“Confidence in a forecast rises with the amount of information that goes into it. But the accuracy of the forecast stays the same.” – Dean Williams

Today’s needs may not be late July’s, so organizations let it play out because health and effectiveness will then determine the higher-ups’ moves. However, the red pinstripes have $14-15 million to shore up center field and/or the relief corps. But they won’t add costly pieces to anticipate potential issues. 

Rotation:

Beginning at the front, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been exemplary after their first three starts: Most hurlers have needed those to build up their arm strength usually done in March. And though their overall ERAs are low, Wheeler’s 1.53 ERA and Nola’s 2.79 ERA are their mark after their first three outings.                 

Zach Eflin, Ranger Suarez and Kyle Gibson are basically three -or-four-slot moundsmen, and they’ll only need replacing with a long-term injury. Presently, Eflin and Suarez will be eligible on July 13 and 15 respectively, and Suarez could start in the Miami Marlins series before the All-Star break.           

NL East:

(stats through July 5)

These three hurlers can average six innings with three earned runs to be valuable. For now, however, southpaw Cristopher Sanchez could have one more appearance before the four-day vacation. Barring, though, an injured hurler, Bailey Falter must stay at Triple-A.   

If the Fightins acquire another starter, he’d be a back-of-the-rotation piece or long man, but this isn’t a need with Sanchez and Falter filling in for two-week stints. Yes, some eye an available number two and imagine an improved five-man staff; but Eflin, Suarez and Gibson are better than most three through fives.    

NL East:

(stats through July 5)

Relief Corps:

The top four arms at the pen’s backend are Seranthony Dominguez, Corey Knebel, Brad Hand and Connor Brogdon, who could miss the Toronto Blue Jays set if his vaccination status hasn’t changed. Otherwise, he may need one more rehab outing to share the bottom of an opponent's lineup with Hand.  

In a recent contest, Dominguez received the eighth-frame call to face Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Aranado batting third and fourth respectively. But if they were hitting fourth and fifth, Knebel would face one through three. And Dominguez wasn’t available on Saturday, so Knebel got the nod.     

NL East:

(stats through July 5)

Behind those four high-leverage hurlers, Jose Alvarado is the go-to lefty before the seventh inning and the fill-in for an unavailable Hand. His right-handed counterpart, currently, is Andrew Bellatti, but Sam Coonrod would have that role but for his IL (injured list) stint. Yes, Bellatti has made the most of his opportunity.          

Waiting in the wings are challengers who are rehabbing like Coonrod: portsiders JoJo Romero and Ryan Sherriff. Moreover, the Phils can only carry eight bullpen arms: Dominguez, Knebel, Hand, Alvarado, Bellatti, Nick Nelson, Jeurys Familia, Mark Appel and Michael Kelly total nine. Plus four relievers are on the IL.            

Realistically, Kelly’s replacement will be a starter, and Romero and Sherriff can remain in Triple-A. Plus Brogdon and Coonrod will replace two relievers from Bellatti, Nelson, Famila and Appel, who are competing for two slots. For now, the Fightins could eat Familia’s $2.5-3 million and demote Appel. Pop your popcorn!                 

Even though the red pinstripes are getting good results now from Bellatti and Nelson, they could add a backend piece or two. Yes, they’re doing the job, but can they continue being effective? And while I don’t know, Dave Dombrowski, PBO (president of baseball operations), might. 

Offense:

With the August returns of right fielder Bryce Harper and second baseman Jean Segura, only center field could require an upgrade. But Matt Vierling is hitting his way to more playing time or even being a regular. In fact, he’s averaging .288 with three homers and seven RBIs since returning on June 7 but only for 66 at-bats.                

Both Harper and Segura could return on the low end of their estimated timetables. Presently, Segura is taking ground balls at second base, but he isn’t throwing while his hand finishes healing. Translation: The Fightins may be at full strength for the final 7-9 weeks.    

NL East:

(stats through July 5)

If Vierling is the everyday center fielder, the Phils would have four bench players: Catcher Garrett Stubbs, infielder Johan Camargo, outfielder Odubel Herrera and infielders Bryson Stott or Darick Hall, barring the pickup of a right-handed bench bat and/or an injury.                

Phillies affordable potential Center Fielders:

(stats through July 6)

RH Michael A. Taylor, 31, Kansas City Royals:

• 63 Gms., 232 PA, a .265 Avg., 5 HR, 24 RBI, a .724 OPS, a 1.0 fWAR and a 108 wRC+ (8% over overall offensive production with 100 as average). 

RH Ramon Laureano, 28, Oakland A’s:

• 56 Gms., 226 PA, a .237 Avg., 6 HR, 15 RBI, a .735 OPS, a 0.9 fWAR and a 114 wRC+ (14% over overall average offensive production).  

Yes, while many will probably want Stott and Hall but not Herrera, the squad needs a backup outfielder. But a decent right-side bat and a solid outfield defender could be a possibility. Perhaps, a center fielder like Taylor or Laureano would be a fit with Vierling as the outfield backup.   

2022 Current NL East Predictions on April 3 and July 5:

1. FanGraphs
2. Pecota (Baseball Prospectus)
3. Davenport
4. Average Victories

Because the tables are only through July 5, you can see where the red pinstripes were at the 81-game mark. And the forecasts have changed since Opening Day to the Fightins’ midpoint. But keep in mind, predictions will probably be different in early August.         

On WFAN in New York City via the Internet, the host asked a frequent caller what the New York Yankees knew they didn’t? And nothing –nothing– was his emphatic, presumptuous answer! Reality check: No one outside the franchise knows the same as the front office. Not nothing!                 

NEXT:

Topper’s Bullpen Rotation

Photo: Ian D'Andrea/Wikimedia Commons/Fair Use