Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves in 2020

Phillies Rotation:

• Nola: 60 Gms., 356 ⅔ Inn., 151 ER and a 3.81 ERA.
• Nola: 69 Gms., 426 Inn., 153 ER and a 3.23 ERA.
• Wheeler: 75 Gms., 421 ⅔ Inn., 189 ER and a 4.03 ERA.
• Wheeler: 54 Gms., 346 ⅓  Inn., 131 ER and a 3.40 ERA.
• Stats through Aug. 13.

Due to doubleheaders, 10 starts will probably be tops for most rotation arms, plus Fried and Arrieta are having early 2020 success. But Arrieta has suffered June injuries in both 162s here, and Fried faded in ‘19 after May. Otherwise, no comparison exists between them. 

Starters in 2019:

• Fried: 10 Gms., 54 ⅔ Inn., 18 ER and a 2.96 ERA.
• Fried: 20 Gms., 104 ⅔ Inn., 56 ER and a 4.68 ERA.
• Arrieta: 11 Gms., 70 Inn., 28 ER and a 3.60 ERA.
• Arrieta: 13 Gms., 65 ⅔ Inn., 42 ER and a 5.76 ERA.
• Eflin: 10 Gms., 62 Inn., 19 ER and a 2.76 ERA.
• Eflin: 18 Gms., 95 ⅔ Inn., 55 ER and a 5.17 ERA with experiment.
• Eflin: 14 Gms., 80 ⅔ Inn., 33 ER and a 3.58 ERA without experiment.

While Fried felt growing pains compared to Arrieta’s maladies, Eflin literally had two good performances out of every three, and the coach had wanted him to advance to one clunker out of four: management’s expectation for all moundsmen. But the high fastball with a sinkerballer was disastrous.      

With the starting staff, the Fightins will need 6-7 hurlers due to five twin bills in September and one on Aug. 20. But although some want rookie Howard to replace Velasquez, both will have more starts through September. And lefty Suarez –heading to Allentown– could be here before August’s end.     

After Fried, the Braves rotation is an adventure due to Soroka’s and Hamels’ injuries, plus Foltynewicz had a six-mph drop in velocity: DFA (designated for assignment). And if his fastball doesn’t return, he won’t because he’s two starts shy of free agency with 2020’s pay: He may not be an option.                 

Relief Corps:

Most pens have 3-5 solid relievers including the closer and setup men, and expanded rosters mean 10-11 bullpen pieces instead of the usual eight. Therefore, most clubs have 5-8 middle relievers instead of 3-5 extra arms. Translation: Any pen with five solid pitchers or more is fortunate.

Relief-corps usage baffles many locals because they believe the manager doesn’t go with his best hurler, but he instead makes a lesser choice. Well, the next day’s starter and relievers’ workloads dictate who is available before the contest. But other considerations are the scoreboard, a hurler’s record against a team and their lineup. 

If there’s a lopsided score, the skipper goes with the least of these, but a close game dictates his best options depending on the frame. Before Nola’s last outing, though, Girardi had Jose Alvarez and Tommy Hunter to set up for Neris hinging on Nola’s pitch count and/or the scoreboard. 

Basically, seven-inning doubleheaders should be beneficial for the red pinstripes, yet they are 1-3 against the New York Yankees and Atlanta. But those 14-frame affairs exist because of their stop-and-start campaign producing rusty moundsmen. To fanatics, though, reality can be an excuse.  

The Phils have one twin bill on Aug. 20 and five twofers in September for their six starters. However, Suarez and David Robertson are nearly ready to throw to batters in Allentown, and Victor Arano is there as well. 

Bullpens protect leads or keep the score close after the starter has worked 5-7 innings. Therefore, the stats indicate the Phils can’t protect an advantage, and the Braves don’t have a lead frequently enough. But Atlanta can be victorious using an opener, while Philly starters must eat innings to triumph.     

Besides Neris, Hunter and Alvarez, the Phillies have Adam Morgan: four total for ‘20. And a winning streak means excellent pitching appearances or an offensive onslaught. So, a .500 record is their future barring heavy run scoring or help from Suarez, Robertson and Arano (situation unknown).    

For the Braves, they eventually will have Will Smith closing and Mark Melancon for the eighth frame. And their other setup arms are Shane Greene, Darren O’Day and Luke Jackson, but AJ Minter could be in this group if he can avoid another demotion: a tally of five or six.    

Moreover, they’ve also received nice outings from Chris Martin (now on the IL), Grant Dayton, Josh Tomlin and Tyler Matzek. But Matzek's last major league stint was 2015 with the Colorado Rockies. So, the southpaw must have a story involving the expanded rosters.     

Offense:

While each organization has three main hitting weapons, the Braves have a more balanced attack so far due in part to no stoppages in play. But the Phillies went 2-2 each against them and the Yankees including Gerrit Cole, and Atlanta was 0-2 against them in Gotham.           

For the Fightins, JT Realmuto (5 HRs, 13 RBIs), Bryce Harper (4 HRs, 10 RBIs) and Didi Gregorius (3 HRs, 11 RBIs) are the heart of the order. And they’ve hit 12 of the 20 homers and driven in 34 of 59 RBIs.        

On the Braves, Ronald Acuna Jr. (4 HRs, 9 RBIs), Freddie Freeman (3 HRs, 12 RBIs) and Marcell Ozuna (4 HRs, 11 RBIs) are the run producers. But they’ve only launched 11 of 27 home runs and knocked in just 32 of 99 RBIs.

 * Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement

AL X Factors before 2020's October Battles