Posted by Mike Frohwirth
I hate Predictions posts. First, I predict the most likely outcomes. Second, crazy random happenstances cause less likely outcomes to occur. Third, I am told that my predictions were "wrong." I'm "wrong" because some experts thought giving Derek Jeter a Gold Glove was a reasonable course of action? I'm "wrong" because an "unfocused" Cole Hamels had a .317 BABIP? OK. Rant over. Please note that the following predictions are for entertainment purposes only. Don't blame me if the Giants beat the Phillies in the NLCS again. If they do, it's only because of small sample randomness. (Warning: Bookies do not care about small sample randomness.)
American League predictions
AL East Division winner – Red Sox
Have you seen that Red Sox lineup? Yikes. Not sure if Lester (.289 BABIP) and Buchholz (.261 BABIP/79% LOB) will be as good as in '10. But the lineup and bullpen are so strong it might not matter.
AL Central Division winner – Twins
Really like the Twins' lineup. Not really excited by the rest of the Central. It's cool that the Twins are helping make the division more competitive, by using Slowey in the bullpen.
AL West Division Winner – Rangers
This one is close. If Trevor Cahill posts another .236 BABIP, maybe Oakland squeaks in. But I think the Rangers are the best team here.
AL Wild Card team– Yankees
Maybe if they spend $400 MM, they can win the division. Or have better rotation options than Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. Still, that lineup should get them the Wild Card.
AL MVP – Josh Hamilton
Think Hamilton will be the best player in the AL. If he behaves himself, he should get enough votes to win the MVP Award.
AL Cy Young – Justin Verlander
There are many good choices here: Felix Hernandez, C.C. Sabathia, and Jon Lester, to name a few. Jeremy Guthrie could post a .198 BABIP, and run away with the Award. But I have a good feeling about Verlander in '11.
AL Rookie of the Year – Hellickson, TB
I think Hellickson will be the best rookie pitcher. But that tough Division may rough up his stats a bit, and Michael Pineda or Dustin Ackley could win the Award for Seattle.
AL Manager of the Year – Ron Gardenhire, MIN
Division Winner + reasonable team payroll = Manager of Year Award winner
AL Playoff prediction
Divisional Round
– Red Sox over Twins, Yankees over Rangers
Championship round – Red Sox over Yankees
Anything can happen in the playoffs. I just picked the better teams to win, but I may be "wrong."
National League predictions
NL East Division winner – PHILLIES!
Too many Aces. If healthy, best team in the NL.
NL Central Division winner – Brewers
Brewers? Reds? Cardinals? Too close to call- injuries will decide this Division. If the three teams are hit equally by injuries, the Brewers squeak by. But anything can happen here.
NL West Division winner – Giants
It's either Giants or Dodgers, I'll go with the Lincecums here. Have a feeling that the Padres and Rockies are going to be mediocre, and that Arizona is going to be horrendous.
NL Wild Card team– Braves
Braves have a good team, and they'll fatten up their win total against the Nationals, and the decayed carcass of the New York Mets. The Braves would probably win the NL Central, and perhaps the NL West.
NL MVP – Pujols
Best player in MLB
NL Cy Young – Halladay
I'll pick the Ace of Aces. But Lee, Hamels, Lincecum could all be in the hunt. BABIP may decide the victor.
NL Rookie of the Year – Aroldis Chapman
I think Freddie Freeman might win the Award, as an average first baseman. But Chapman will be the best rookie, albeit in sixty innings, for a non-contender.
NL Manager of the year – Ron Roenicke, MIL (the former Phillies great!)
The winner of the NL Central gets this Award.
NL Playoff prediction
Divisional Round
– Phillies over Brewers, Giants over Braves
Championship round – Phillies over Giants
The Phillies are the bestest!
World Series Prediction
Phillies over Red Sox, in 6 games
Battle of the Titans! As a Phillies fan/blogger, I am required to choose the Phillies. In a short series, anything can happen!
