2020 Phillies: August’s Rotation Wrinkles

Front Four:

After he recovers from COVID-19 symptoms, Nola, a warm-weather pitcher, should be effective from game one, but don’t expect more than three innings regardless of the pitch count and his line. Basically, his second appearance could be 4-5 frames with only the pen working the final innings.

When he signed during the offseason, Wheeler was only going to miss one of roughly 32 opportunities, and this minor point drew little or no attention. Now, it could be one to three starts out of 10 due to the coronavirus. Plus he could miss three outings and return for seven outings.

Injury-wise, Arrieta usually has his difficulties in June after 10 appearances, but the lighter workload could boost it to 14 for this abbreviated season. Plus he may not have an injury-related problem for one of his three summers here especially in his walk year.

By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor

In a normal 162, the Philadelphia Phillies faithful would be considering Joe Girardi’s hurlers for the five spot, but television spectators should prepare for some options during each starter’s first two or three outings, unless they go on the COVID-19 IL (injured list).

Multiple Choices:

For the Phillies and 29 other franchises, how long will it take for each pitcher to go 6-7 innings? Translation: This is a golden opportunity for an ambitious moundsman to force management’s hand because summer training is only three short weeks before multiple appearances through mid-August.

IN OTHER WORDS:

“Novelty serves us for a kind of refreshment, and takes off from that satiety we are apt to complain of in our usual and ordinary entertainments.” – Joseph Addison

In past camps, hurlers had six weeks to increase their arm strength to 80-100 pitches. But now they have roughly 21 days. So, their own working out for the last 3-4 months could determine if they need two or three starts before being in April shape. And keep in mind, a virus-related situation can instantly change availability.

Some organizations are considering a six-man staff for a lighter workload and stress on their arms. Therefore, 10 starts are their thinking regarding injury possibilities due to the March break in preparation continuity to a half-reduced camp.

Others believe a piggyback configuration will be more appropriate if a starter can only handle 3-5 innings for their first two opportunities. So, 9-10 hurlers will initially cover five contests from six to eight frames depending on the pitchers.

Phillies starters:

Group one: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jake Arrieta and Zack Eflin.
Group two: Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta.
Group three: Enyel De Los Santos, Cole Irvin and Spencer Howard.

Phillies relievers:

Group one: David Robertson (The Phils will add Robertson after they green-light his arm.)
Group two: Adam Morgan, Jose Alvarez, Victor Arano and **Robert Stock.
** On the 40-man roster. * non-roster invitees.
*Group three: Bud Norris, Blake Parker and Francisco Liriano.
Group four: Hector Neris, Ranger Suarez and Tommy Hunter (on COVID-19 IL).

With an active 30 and a DH (designated hitter), 13 players equal eight regulars and five reserves: two infielders, two outfielders and a catcher. Eventually, 17 arms will be down to 13 after four weeks.

Unfortunately, Wheeler could miss Opening Day for his first child’s birth, and COVID-19 protocols may involve more than a three-day paternity leave. So the best option between Velasquez and Pivetta will hold down the five slot, and the other will fill in for Wheeler. Seize the day!

Including Scott Kingery, the virus has now claimed Neris, Suarez and Hunter. But the front office hasn’t revealed their status: testing positive, showing symptoms, or self-isolation due to contact with a confirmed exposure. Ergo, Suarez now won’t have a starting opportunity but will join Neris and Hunter.

If you state give so-and-so a chance, remember the players understand this situation differently. Girardi and his contemporaries will make quicker decisions in August. In a full campaign, yes, the leash is longer through May but much shorter after the All-Star break.

Basically, camp will probably break down into three categories. The Fightins will dedicate the first seven days to assessing the arm strength of their hurlers and getting ready physically for ‘20. In the second and third weeks, intrasquad contests will precede three exhibition games before Opening Day.

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Front Four:

Returning from self-isolation and testing negative, Nola, a warm-weather pitcher, should be effective from game one, but don’t expect more than three innings regardless of the pitch count and his line. Basically, his second appearance could be 4-5 frames with only the pen working the final innings.

Arrieta’s first 10 starts:

2018: 5-2 with a 2.16 ERA.
2019: 4-4 with a 3.60 ERA.

Before the high-fastball experiment brought his 2019 into question, Eflin was 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA for 16 appearances. And many considered him the top starter due to Nola’s early struggles. However, the reason to tamper with his success was he literally had two good outings and a clunker for every three starts.

Due to this truncated campaign, Nola will toe the rubber in hot weather like an ace, and Wheeler could be a second-half star for a third straight year if he only misses one appearance. Moreover, Arrieta will be a solid three in a 60-game season, but Eflin won’t have the time to develop his third pitch to join Nola and Wheeler at the top.

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Arms Race:

Here’s where the wrinkles are in the Phillies five-man staff without Suarez. For the bottom rung, Velasquez and Pivetta will probably have two shots to impress Girardi and pitching coach Bryan Price. And one outing must be decent to get a third chance. Translation: It’s do or die!

For extended periods, Velasquez had worked six innings in 2018, but Gabe Kapler had a shorter leash in 2019 with playoff expectations. Pivetta, though, is a flamethrower with below-average control, and they usually become setup men and closers.

Early on, De Los Santos, Irvin and, perhaps, Howard must make every opportunity count because the red pinstripes may be without Wheeler. But general manager Matt Klentak may not immediately burn a roster slot for Howard –who only logged 30 ⅔ frames at Double-A in ‘19– but add him in September.

As for the long shots, De Los Santos and Irvin could work in long relief after the first two weeks. And if they don’t produce, they –depending on Howard’s status– won’t make the cut when Wheeler returns.

Unless the Phillies carry Nick Williams as a sixth outfielder, they will have 13 position players and begin the shortened campaign with 17 arms. So, four hurlers will eliminate themselves due to ineffectiveness.

Velazquez or Pivetta will be in the bullpen: five starters and eight relievers. Ergo, the four cuts –barring complications– could be Howard, De Los Santos, Irvin, and Stock plus the three relievers replacing Neris, Suarez and Hunter. Though, nothing is a safe bet for even a superstar.

This one-of-a-kind season won’t feature slow starters in April and May, won’t have June slumps, and won’t have choking in early September. No, if there’s a script to this year, it could be a new beginning or a finale depending on a potential 2021 campaign.

The Phillies and the nine other teams in the National League East and American League East will be experiencing the first month of the season and the stretch drive simultaneously. So, what does the Magic 8-Ball predict for 2020? April in August!