Phillies Should Consider Keuchel Amid Struggling Arano, Velasquez

By Matt Rappa, Sports Talk Philly editor

Opening Day is just five days away. The Philadelphia Phillies have just two split-squad games and a spring finale, home against the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday, before heading back to Philadelphia.

At this stage, player performance is indicative of what would come when the games count, less than a week away. For starting pitcher Vince Velasquez and reliever Victor Arano, their struggles throughout 2019 Grapefruit League action should make the Phillies strongly consider alternative options.

Velasquez (12.79 ERA) has yielded nine runs (all earned) on 11 hits, seven walks, and three home runs allowed this spring spanning just three appearances and 6 1/3 innings, albeit punching out 15 batters. Arano (51.30 ERA), meanwhile, has surrendered 19 runs (all earned) — in just six appearances and 3 1/3 innings — on 16 hits, six walks and four home runs allowed, striking out only one.

Arano and San Francisco Giants southpaw — and recent Phillies trade target — Madison Bumgarner have allowed the most earned runs this spring (19). Five batters into Velasquez's Thursday appearance, he already gave up a home run, walk and double, while also knocking down a hitter with a "high-and-tight fastball," notes Philly.com's Scott Lauber. The Phillies heavily relied on Arano last season, who in 60 games notched as many strikeouts. with just six home runs and 17 walks allowed spanning 59 1/3 innings. He recorded three saves in five opportunities, and finished 14 games.

So, there seems to be an easy fix — sign Dallas Keuchel and move Vince Velasquez to the bullpen. Keuchel, 31, is a two-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove Award winner, 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner and 2017 World Series champion. He is also represented by Scott Boras, the same agent as would-be teammates Bryce Harper, Jake Arrieta and Rhys Hoskins.

In 145 starts since 2014, Keuchel has posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.177 WHIP, while going 67-45 with a 3.28 ERA and 784 strikeouts over 950 1/3 innings. Keuchel also is durable; last season, he led the American League in starts (34), while facing the most batters in the majors (874).

1. Balance Starting Rotation

Adding Keuchel would help balance the Phillies' right-handed heavy starting rotation, featuring Aaron Nola, Nick Pivetta, Jake Arrieta, and Zach Eflin. Ranger Suarez, Cole Irvin and JoJo Romero are still lingering in the minors, although Suarez — who posted a 9.00 ERA this spring through two appearances — is the only southpaw currently on the 40-man roster.

Keuchel, if signed at this late stage, would probably be sidelined close to May until he would be ready. The Phillies' four off-days in April could help them get by with a four-man rotation in the meantime. That decision has not been officially made to skip Velasquez, however, with Phillies Manager Gabe Kapler telling Lauber the club is “discussing a number of things.”

Last July, Suarez broke a streak of 267 consecutive games in which the Phillies featured a non-left-handed starting pitcher. The Phillies are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011, a season in which they had leftys Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels to complement Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton.

2. Make the Most of Velasquez's Strikeouts

Velasquez has been a starting pitcher for most of his Major League career, but not for all. Twelve of his 19 appearances with the Houston Astros in 2015, as a rookie, came out of the bullpen; Velasquez also made one relief appearances last season with the Phillies in the club's 16-inning, 5 hours and 55-minute game opposite Chase Utley, Manny Machado and the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 24.

The Montclair, California, native has always had a strikeout-first mentality; this spring, 15 of his 19 outs recorded have been via strikeout. Of course, 11 hits, seven walks, three home runs and nine runs allowed were dispersed in between, but that could be minimized if turned into a reliever.

3. Bolster Bullpen

The Phillies' bullpen is already looking much better than 2018 — with a more seasoned Seranthony Dominguez, and the addition of David Robertson taking pressure off not only Dominguez, but also Hector Neris and Pat Neshek.

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Tommy Hunter starting the season on the injured list (strained flexor in right arm), MLB.com's Todd Zolecki notes, opens a spot for either Arano, Edubray Ramos, Yacksel Rios or James Pazos. Adding Velasquez to the bullpen may be a better option than all four, although Rios has posted a 0.90 ERA this spring over eight appearances and 10 innings.

Craig Kimbrel appears to be headed to either the Milwaukee Brewers or the Phillies' division-rival Atlanta Braves, according to recent reports. While adding Kimbrel would have been significant, moving Velasquez to the bullpen could be a much cheaper alternative, and allow for Dominguez to settle into the closer role without being blocked by the future Hall of Famer in Kimbrel.

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It is believed Keuchel is seeking a long-term deal, but the Phillies may not want to oblige and would rather "wait it out" until the trade deadline. 

Phillies General Manager Matt Klentak recently said on SportsRadio 94 WIP that "for four and a half months last year," the club was "one of the best rotations in baseball."

"Eflin, Velasquez and Pivetta were a big reason why our club was in first place into mid August, and they faltered," Klentak said. "All three of those guys, have top notch stuff."

Kapler told Lauber that Velasquez is at his best, he gets hitters to swing over secondary pitches and under his electric fastball. "We're really focusing on that curveball below the zone and the fastball at the top carrying through the zone," Kapler said. "Those are the two areas of focus for Vince."

The Phillies appear to be patient with Velasquez, but you have to wonder for how much longer.