Surprise! Okay, not really. Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson has confirmed the Phils will start Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez in NLCS Game 1, Game 2, and Game 3, respectively. The Arizona Diamondbacks confirmed their first three starters earlier, here’s how it sets up for Games 1-3: Wheeler will match up against Zac Gallen, Nola against Merrill Kelly, and Suarez against Brandon Pfaadt. While the Phillies will likely have the edge in the first three games, Game 1 and Game 2 are closer to a toss-up than Game 3. The Phils trio would likely be available to pitch twice in the NLCS should it go a full seven games.
Wheeler will start Game 1 on six-days of rest which should benefit the 33-year-old righty. For his career, Wheeler has a 3.90 ERA on 6+ days of rest, however there are a few anomalies that drive up that number. In three of the past four seasons, 2020-2023, Wheeler has three seasons with a sub-.270 ERA in games started on 6+ days of rest. His career ERA on 6+ days of rest is 3.90 compared to 3.79 on 5-days of rest, and 3.03 on 4-days of rest. Wheeler has been spectacular in his first two outings of the postseason posting a 1-0 record with a 2.08 ERA, 18 K, and a 0.69 WHIP in 13.0 innings pitched.
Nola, who’s looking to build off two tremendous starts this postseason, will get the ball in Game 2 on regular rest. The soon-to-be free agent is making the Phillies, and others, take a long look at a potential big money contract for 2024 and beyond. Nola is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA, 12 K, and a 0.87 WHIP in 12.2 innings pitched during the 2023 NL Wild Card Series and NL Division Series, respectively. The 30-year-old doesn’t have the greatest track record against Arizona, he’s 2-2 with a 7.67 ERA and a 1.519 WHIP in five career starts against the D-Backs.
It will be interesting to see how Thomson deploys Suarez in Game 3, and potentially beyond. The Phils ‘Mr. Cool” has only pitched 8.2 innings during the 2023 postseason. Obviously, Suarez’s limited usage has been by design, however, it begs the question is the NLCS where Topper lets Ranger go a bit deeper into games? Like Nola, Suarez hasn’t had the best of luck in his career against Arizona. The lefty is 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in nine career games against the Diamondbacks. Suarez did face Arizona twice this season, recording a 3.75 ERA, 12 K, and a 1.000 WHIP in 12.0 innings pitched.
NLCS Game 4 would likely fall to Cristopher Sanchez and/or Taijuan Walker, according to reports. The pair have not pitched significantly since late-September, neither player has appeared in the postseason for the Phils.
The 2023 NLCS is set to begin on Monday from Citizens Bank Park in South Philadelphia. First pitch of Game 1, Gallen vs. Wheeler, is set for 8:07 PM/EDT on will be telecast on TBS and the MAX streaming app.
