Eagles

Offense, Not Defense, Is Dooming Eagles

By
Paul Bowman
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Paul Bowman Sports Editor

Penn State Great Valley MBA, Penn State Berks Undergrad, Eagle Scout and Vigil Honor, IT Service Manager. I joined Sports Talk Philly in 2017 and root for all the Philly teams (as well as their minor league counter parts).

All posts by Paul Bowman
Sports Editor

Published09 Oct 2018

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By Paul Bowman, Eagledelphia Managing Editor Offense, Not Defense, Is Dooming Eagles

While much has been made of the Eagles defense struggling this season, that is not the major issue. The Eagles are 2-3 because of their offense, not their defense.

The defense has allowed 104 points to be scored against them through the first five weeks of the season. That is ninth best in the league. Last season, they allowed 99 points in the first five weeks. There has been some drop off, sure and the secondary has been burned a few times, but the Eagles defense is not to blame for the Eagles record this season. While social media is focused on blaming the defense and guys like Jalen Mills, who Jim Schwartz continues to play in a scheme that does not fit his skill set, maybe it is time to be focusing on the offense.

The Eagles offense has been awful and the offense is forcing the defense to give up points by having some of the worst ball control there is. In fact, the Eagles lead the NFL with seven fumbles in five games. Unfortunately, much of that has to do with Carson Wentz.

Since Wentz returned in week three, the Eagles have committed the following turnovers:

  • Wentz throws an interception on the first play of a drive beginning at their own 25-yard line versus the Colts. The ball is intercepted at the 28 and returned to the 17.
  • Wentz is sacked and fumbles the ball at their own 13-yard line where the Colts recover.
  • Wentz is sacked and fumbles at the Philadelphia 31-yard line. The Titans recover at the 35.
  • Wentz is hit and a fumble at the Minnesota 36-yard line goes into the arms of a defender and is returned for a touchdown.
  • Ajayi fumbles at the Minnesota five-yard line where the Vikings recover.

    • Every turnover kills momentum, but nearly all of these turnovers have been huge momentum killers as they occur at the beginning of a drive basically giving the ball to the opposing team already in field goal range or after a huge drive concluding in the Eagles reaching the red zone and then giving the ball away. The only one that does not fit that bill was Wentz’s fumble against the Vikings, but that was returned for a touchdown. If you need a reminder of how much that shifts the momentum of a game, just remember last season’s NFC Championship game where Patrick Robinson picked off Case Keenum and an offense that had been impressive all year scored no more points against the Eagles while one of the most elite defenses in the season allowed 31 more points to be scored.

    While there is no way to know for sure, I would estimate that these five turnovers resulted in a 26-point swing on the offense. My estimations on the point swings are:

  • The defense stood tall after the Wentz interception against the Colts, allowing only four yards to the Colts offense on their ensuing drive. The Colts kicked a field goal. That’s three points on the offense.
  • The defense again stopped the Colts following the fumble allowing only three yards. They again kicked a field goal. That is six points on the offense in this game alone.
  • The Titans faired better following the fumble and gained 20 yards before kicking a field goal, but that just made it a chip shot for kicker Ryan Succop. Succop has successfully made just under 80% of field goals he has attempted from between 40 and 49 yards out. The kick would have been 52 yards from where they received it, so minimal gains would have gotten them into Succop’s range. That’s another three points on the offense, nine total.
  • Wentz’s fumble came at the 36-yard line, making it a 53-yard attempt. That is certainly within Jake Elliot’s range for a field goal. Of course, it was instead returned for a touchdown. That is a 10-point swing on the offense.
  • Ajayi’s fumble didn’t result in any points that can be blamed on the offense, but it certainly missed out on a fairly easy chance at a touchdown. It would have been second and goal at the five-yard line. That’s a seven point swing.

    • With the swing in the Colts game, that would have left a final score of 10-20 with an easy Eagles win. The Titans game would never have reached overtime as it would have ended with a 20-17 win for the Eagles. The Vikings game would have been huge with turnovers causing a 17-point swing. The game could have looked more like a comfortable 17-31 win for the Eagles. Of course the games would not have played out the same way, but if they had, the Eagles are looking good at 4-1 if they don’t turn the ball over in these key situations.

    At the same time, it makes the defense look worse than they have been. The turnovers have directly resulted in 16 points scored against the Eagles. Take that out of the 104, and the defense has only allowed 88 points compared to 99 at this point last season. 88 points allowed would put the Eagles as sixth best in the NFL. Heck, if the Titans game hadn’t gotten to overtime, the defense could be as low as 82 points allowed – good for third best in the league. The reason the Eagle are 2-3 is not the defense.

    There are two areas of major concern with these turnovers: Carson Wentz and the offensive line.

    Carson Wentz is of concern because he is the one committing many of the turnovers. While the interception in his first game back is an easy mistake to dismiss as a quarterback being rusty, the fumbles are not as easily dismissible. He has committed a fumble in all three games since his return, which is particularly scary considering he led the league in fumbles in 2016. That season, he committed 14 fumbles in 16 games. Perhaps the only saving grace from those fumbles was that he was able to recover half of those fumbles. So far this season, he has yet to recover a single one.

    The blame cannot fall entirely on Wentz, however. Wentz is going to hold onto the ball a bit too long in pressure situations because he knows he can create big plays from them. Unfortunately, that seems like almost every play this year. The offensive line, which had been the best of the best last season, has fallen off a cliff. Jason Peters and Lane Johnson have both been awful at tackle which further stresses both guards. Isaac Seumalo replaced Stefan Wisniewski this week, but Wiz was simply the weakest link and with a tackle that is missing blocks and literally being pushed over, it should be expected that he would struggle more than the Pro Bowl Brandon Brooks on the opposite side of the line. Of course, the line all needs to play better as a whole, but if the two tackles play to the level that they are capable of, the rest of the line will feel less stress and their play will improve.

    Wentz needs to protect the ball better under pressure and the line needs to protect him better. While the defense has given up a few big plays and failed to make a few stops in some key situations, the offense is putting them in tight spots and blowing what could otherwise be easy wins by turning the ball over.