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Which MLB Pitchers Are Gaining & Losing Velocity In 2024?
Growing up, James was fascinated with watching sports. This led to an interest in research and stats and writing betting analysis for a variety of sports. James has graduated with a Bachelor’s Degree in Business.
All posts by James BoutrosPublished07 May 2024
Key Highlights:
- Michael Kopech (+3.6 mph) has seen his fastball velocity increase more than any other MLB pitcher
- Mason Miller is the MLB’s hardest thrower with an average fastball velocity of 100.7 mph
- Velocity gainers have improved K/9 (+2.3) and ERA (-0.874) in 2024
MLB pitchers are throwing harder than ever but has the increase in fastball velocity actually improved their results on the mound?
At Sports Talk Philly, we’ve analyzed the Statcast numbers to determine which pitchers have gained and lost the most velocity on their four-seam fastball this season.
Below, we will discuss which MLB pitchers are gaining and losing velocity on their four-seam fastball and analyze the effect that it has had on their overall performance.
Top 10 MLB Pitchers Gaining Velocity In 2024
Here are the top 10 pitchers that have seen a velocity increase on their 4-seam fastball from 2023 to 2024, according to Statcast as of May 2, 2024.
| Pitcher | Team | 4 Seamer Diff (mph) | ERA Diff | K/9 Diff | WHIP Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kopech, Michael | CWS | +3.6 | -1.02 | +3.9 | -0.3 |
| Freeland, Kyle | COL | +3.2 | +8.18 | -0.26 | +1.08 |
| Gaddis, Hunter | CLE | +2.6 | -1.5 | +5.06 | -0.18 |
| Miller, Mason | OAK | +2.4 | -2.52 | +7.95 | -0.43 |
| Holmes, Clay | NYY | +1.7 | -2.86 | -0.54 | -0.24 |
| Gore, MacKenzie | WAS | +1.7 | -1.23 | +1.06 | -0.05 |
| Morejon, Adrian | SDP | +1.7 | -4.39 | +5.94 | -0.66 |
| Ryan, Joe | MIN | +1.4 | -1.13 | -0.33 | -0.13 |
| Lambert, Peter | COL | +1.3 | +0.3 | +0.52 | +0.11 |
| Gonzales, Marco | PIT | +1.2 | -2.57 | -0.3 | -0.28 |
Surprisingly, only six of the top 10 pitchers that have increased their velocity have seen an increase in strikeout rates.
Eight out of the top 10 pitchers have lowered their ERA and WHIP in 2024.
Overall, most of the top 10 pitchers that have increased their velocity have improved their overall numbers in 2024 compared to 2023.
Kopech Has Gained The Most Fastball Velocity In 2024
Michael Kopech has seen the biggest increase (+3.6 mph) in his fastball velocity this season and he has seen statistical improvements as a result.
Kopech’s ERA in 2023 was 5.43, but in 2024, his ERA is down to 4.41. His expected ERA in 2024 is 3.34, which means he has seen some bad luck and should see his ERA improve even more.
Kopech had a 9.32 K/9 in 2023 but that mark has sky-rocketed to 13.22 K/9 in 2024, representing a massive 41.8% jump in his strikeout rate. The White Sox pitcher has seen his WHIP drop significantly as well.
While some of Kopech’s statistical improvement can be attributed to his move to the bullpen, the increase in his fastball velocity appears to be paying off tremendously in 2024.
Is Kyle Freeland Due For Improvement In Colorado?
A massive outlier among pitchers who have gained the most fastball velocity is Kyle Freeland.
While most pitchers on the list have seen a major benefit to their overall numbers, the increase in velocity has actually hurt Freeland’s performance this season. Freeland has seen his ERA jump from 5.03 in 2023 to an unsustainable 13.21 ERA through four starts in 2024. Freeland’s ERA is severely inflated due to back-to-back awful performances in his first two outings.
He is currently on the IL after four starts and is expected to return in late May. It will be interesting to see what Freeland does with his fastball when he returns.
Mason Miller Is The MLB’s Hardest Throwing Pitcher In 2024
Mason Miller of the Oakland A’s has been the MLB’s hardest thrower in 2024 after increasing his four-seam fastball velocity by +2.4 mph this year. With an average heater of 100.7 mph, Miller has experienced a massive jump in his strikeout rate from 2023 to 2024.
Miller had a 10.26 K/9 in 2023 and he has nearly doubled that mark with an incredible 18.21 K/9 in 2024, an increase of 77.4%. The A’s reliever has also lowered his ERA from 3.20 in 2023 to just 1.26 in 2024.
Similar to Freeland’s ERA, Miller’s current strikeout rate seems unsustainable but there is no denying the increase in fastball velocity is paying off for the A’s closer.
Top 10 MLB Pitchers Losing Velocity In 2024
Here are the top 10 pitchers that have seen a velocity decrease on their 4-seam fastball from 2023 to 2024, according to Statcast.
| Pitcher | Team | 4 Seamer Diff (mph) | ERA Diff | K/9 Diff | WHIP Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hicks, Jordan | SFG | -3.5 | -1.7 | -3.95 | -0.45 |
| Hall, DL | MIL | -3.3 | +4.45 | -3.55 | +1.08 |
| López, Reynaldo | ATL | -3 | -1.77 | -2.02 | -0.27 |
| Ramírez, Yohan | BAL | -3 | +4.51 | +1.31 | +0.13 |
| Thompson, Zack | STL | -2.9 | +5.05 | +0.82 | +0.46 |
| Webb, Jacob | BAL | -2.7 | -1.85 | 1.49 | -0.47 |
| Floro, Dylan | WAS | -2.6 | -4.15 | -1.85 | -0.45 |
| Puk, A.J. | MIA | -2.5 | +5.25 | -4.49 | +1.45 |
| Marte, Yunior | PHI | -2.3 | -2.33 | -0.59 | -0.35 |
| Houck, Tanner | BOS | -2.3 | -3.41 | +0.97 | -0.45 |
Six of the 10 pitchers have a lower strikeout rate in 2024 compared to last season.
However, lower velocity didn’t necessarily translate into pitching poorly.
In fact, the same number of pitchers (six) managed to improve their ERA and WHIP despite losing between 2-3 mph on their four-seam fastball.
Hicks Flashing Improvement Despite Less Velocity
Despite seeing the biggest drop in velocity on his fastball (-3.5 mph), Jordan Hicks’ stats have significantly improved in 2024.
Hicks finished 2023 with a 3.29 ERA but that mark has dropped to 1.59 in 2024.
The Giants’ starter has seen a significant strikeout rate drop from 2023 to 2024. He had an 11.10 K/9 in 2023 but has a 7.15 K/9 in 2024. While part of the reason for his decline can be attributed to being tabbed as a starter compared to coming out of the bullpen, Hicks has improved his WHIP from 1.36 in 2023 to 0.91 in 2024, a drop of 33%.
However, Hicks appears to be an outlier among pitchers who have lost velocity on their fastball.
Lower Velocity Spells Trouble For Most Pitchers
DL Hall has seen the second-biggest drop in velocity and his stats have suffered significantly from last year. His ERA and WHIP have skyrocketed and his strikeout rate has dropped significantly.
AJ Puk has suffered the worst statistical change from the top 10 pitchers that have decreased velocity. Puk’s ERA and WHIP jumped up big time while his strikeout rate has dropped tremendously.
Despite seeing an increase in strikeout rates, Yohan Ramirez and Zack Thompson have also seen their ERA and WHIP increase by a large amount.
Increased Fastball Velocity Has Led To Better Results For MLB Pitchers
On average, the pitchers that have upped their velocity have seen more success compared to those that have seen their velocity drop.
| Top-10 Gainers | Top-10 Losers | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg 4 Seamer Diff | +2.08 mph | -2.81 mph |
| Avg ERA Diff | -0.874 | +0.405 |
| Avg K/9 Diff | +2.3 | -1.186 |
| Avg WHIP Diff | -0.108 | +0.068 |
The average four-seam fastball improvement from the top 10 pitchers is +2.08 mph while the losers have seen an average drop of -2.81 mph in their velocity.
On average, gainers have seen a drop on average (-0.874) in ERA while the losers have seen an increase (+0.405) in their ERA from 2023 to 2024.
The top 10 gainers have added an average of +2.3 K/9 to their strikeout rates. On the other hand, the top 10 pitchers who have lost velocity have witnessed an average dropoff in their strikeouts rates of -1.186 K/9.
Gainers have seen a drop on average (-0.108) in WHIP while the losers have seen an increase (+0.068) in their WHIP.
