Phillies Nuggets: An early crack at the 2018 Opening Day lineup

By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor

New Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Carlos Santana played his home games at Progressive Field for the first eight years of his career. It's perhaps symbolic that he was the first major free-agent signing of the Matt Klentak/Gabe Kapler era, because a progressive approach is likely coming to how the team's lineup is structured moving forward.

With a lineup that may suddenly be capable of being competitive, Kapler and the Phillies will have many options for how to build their perfect lineup. Here's the first look at what a 2018 Opening Day lineup could look like:

1. Cesar Hernandez – Second Base

The Phillies could still trade Hernandez, though the guess here is that he'll be front-and-center for the Phillies on Opening Day. Not only did the team alleviate some pressure to move Hernandez by dealing Freddy Galvis, but Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia was told by an anonymous executive that the Phillies weren't pushing to move Hernandez as hard at the MLB Winter Meetings as he anticipated. That may be a pretty good indication that despite the fact top prospect Scott Kingery is looming at Triple-A, Hernandez will still be with the Phillies at least to open the 2018 season.

Of those with more than 250 at-bats for the Phillies in 2017, Hernandez had the highest on-base percentage on the team at .373. The 27-year-old switch-hitter, who has led the Phillies in walks three straight seasons, was second in the team with 150 hits. That was only five behind the aforementioned Galvis, who had 97 more at-bats than him. When you add in the fact that he has elite speed that a new coaching staff could turn into him being at least a respectable basestealer, Hernandez is a pretty perfect leadoff hitter, regardless of whether a traditional or progressive mind is putting the lineup together.

2. Rhys Hoskins – Left Field

Hoskins batting second may make some even more uncomfortable than him playing left field, but with a progressive front-office led by Matt Klentak and a progressive coaching staff led by Gabe Kapler, it wouldn't be surprising at all if he bats second in the lineup.

Here are some names that hit second at times for their respective teams in 2017: Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. In the past, that trio – especially Stanton and Judge – may have been viewed as cleanup hitters. Teams around the league – progressive or otherwise – seem to at least be flirting with the idea of regularly having their best hitter in their lineup bat second. The Phillies shouldn't be any different.

Behind a monster month of August, Hoskins posted a 1.014 OPS in 170 at-bats. That's still a relatively small sample size, but it blew away everyone else on the team. He also ran out of gas at the end of the 2017 season – he played in 165 total games in 2017 – which caused his average to dip to .259. He's going to post a higher average than that in 2018.

3. Carlos Santana – First Base

If Hernandez is traded or not in the lineup on a given day, I wouldn't put it past Kapler to have Santana leadoff. Though he's not viewed as a traditional leadoff hitter, Terry Francona had Santana bat out of the No. 1 spot in the lineup for 150 at-bats in 2017. Santana did hit just .236 in those at-bats, but he walked 88 times in 2017 and posted a .363 on-base percentage overall in 2017. Santana isn't a basestealing threat, but if the goal is for the leadoff hitter to get on base, Santana does that.

He doesn't hit for as high of an average as Hernandez, however, and Hernandez's speed is nice to have at the top of the order. Santana also has more pop than someone like Hernandez, making him a better fit for the No. 3 spot in the lineup.

4. Odubel Herrera – Center Field

While you would prefer someone with maybe a little more pop in the cleanup spot, Herrera finished in the top 10 in the major leagues in doubles in 2017, with 42. If a more traditional slugger presents himself during the season – Maikel Franco? – perhaps he can move into this spot. For now, Herrera makes sense for this spot because he drives the ball, even if he's not always out of the ballpark.

Perhaps the biggest problem with Herrera hitting in this spot is that for as hot as he can get, when he cools off, he really goes ice cold. For example, last May he hit just .183 with 30 strikeouts. One of the biggest challenges facing Kapler's staff is to get Herrera to consistently keep the fierce approach that he displays when things are going right. If they are able to do that, Herrera may not be a bad fit here for the interim. In the long-run, he projects more as a No. 5 hitter, meaning the Phillies are a middle-of-the-order bat away from being an offense that can contend.

5. Maikel Franco – Third Base

This is perhaps one of the only spots in the lineup that doesn't go by the sabermetrics book. But there's two main reasons for that: Franco batting fifth potentially breaks up two left-handed hitters and if he's going to be in the lineup, he's going to have to perform at a much higher level than what he did in 2017.

The first few months of 2018 may prove to be make-or-break for Franco's Phillies tenure. Forget that Manny Machado can be a free-agent next offseason, it appears likely that come next summer, both the aforementioned Hernandez and Scott Kingery will be on the Phillies roster. If Franco isn't performing, he'll be pushed to the bench by one of the two.

So if the 25-year-old is going to reach his high ceiling with the Phillies, it's time for him to begin showing that. After a 2016 season that former Phillies manager Pete Mackanin called disappointing, Franco slashed .230/.281/.409 with a .292 wOBA and a .690 OPS in 2017. If he's capable of being anything close to the player that slashed .280/.343/.497 with a .360 wOBA and .840 OPS in 80 games in 2015, 2018 would be the time to show it.

When Aaron Altherr is in the lineup, he may ultimately hit fifth in the order.

What will Nick Williams' role be in 2018? (Brandon Apter/SportsTalkPhilly)

6. Nick Williams – Right Field

Speaking of Altherr potentially being in the lineup, he will compete with Williams, who may get the nod as the Opening Day starter in right field. Interestingly enough, it may not be as simple as starting Williams against right-handed pitchers and Altherr against left-handed pitchers:

For what it's worth, these were the splits (in small sample sizes) of Nick Williams/Aaron Altherr vs LHP in 2017:

Williams: .274/.333/.405 with two home runs, 19 RBIs, 5 BBs in 84 at-bats

Altherr: .239/.325/.505 with eight HRs, 22 RBIs 14 BBs in 109 at-bats pic.twitter.com/ejismy8F7m

— Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) December 19, 2017

Here's vs RHP

Williams: .293/.340/.498 with 10 home runs 36 RBIs, 15 BBs in 229 at-bats

Altherr: .285/.346/.521 with 11 home runs, 43 RBIs, 18 BBs in 263 at-bats

— Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) December 19, 2017

So it may not come down to who is pitching for the opposing team, but rather Gabe Kapler riding the hot-hand. If Maikel Franco struggles, that may actually work in Altherr's favor, as it would increase the need for a right-handed hitter with some pop in the lineup. If Franco is able to put the ball in the air more this season, that may work to the advantage of Williams, who then would break up some right-handed hitters.

Though I would lean towards Williams starting on Opening Day, I did pen a piece earlier this offseason suggesting that the Phillies may not be as high on Williams as some fans are. Though Williams slashed .288/.338/.473 with 12 home runs and 55 RBIs in his first 313 at-bats, it will be interesting to see how he performs in his first full season at the major league level. Steamer projects that he will regress to a .256/.301/.443 slash-line in 2018. He's also just two seasons removed from walking just 19 times in Triple-A, and Steamer projects that he will walk just 21 times in 2018. That doesn't seem to fit into Matt Klentak's goal of having a team that "controls the strike zone."

Altherr and Williams, despite their flexibility in the outfield, didn't grade out especially well in the outfield in 2017. However, Williams graded out worse, posting a -3.0 UZR, a -9.6 UZR/150 and -13 defensive runs saved (per FanGraphs) in 2017. He also graded out worse than Altherr did in the minors.

Williams, in all likelihood, will be the team's Opening Day right fielder. But if Altherr is finally able to put together a healthy campaign in 2018, he may end up getting more at-bats than Williams.

7. Jorge Alfaro – Catcher

With three catchers – Alfaro, Andrew Knapp and Cameron Rupp – it's unclear how the Phillies will solve their logjam at catcher. Perhaps they will carry three catchers (that feels unlikely). Perhaps Rupp will be traded before the season. Or perhaps Knapp or Rupp will open the season at Triple-A. In any event, Alfaro is out of options, and it's his turn to sink-or-swim as the team's starting catcher.

Alfaro had an interesting 29-game stint at the major league level in 2017. He slashed an impressive .318/.360./514 in his 107 at-bats with the Phillies in 2017. On the other hand, that followed him posting a disappointing .241/.291/.358 in 324 at-bats for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. While he had five home runs at the major league level, that came after just seven the entire season at Triple-A, despite very high power potential for a catcher.

The 24-year-old, who was one of the key pieces the Phillies received from the Texas Rangers in the July 2015 Cole Hamels trade, has a high ceiling, but perhaps a low floor. While he possess potentially elite power, it didn't show itself much last season, after a strong 2016 campaign. He also walked just 19 times in 431 at-bats between Triple-A and the major league level in 2017. As a fielder, he has an arm that former manager Pete Mackanin called "the best he's seen." But he's still growing in other aspects as a fielder, such as receiving from what will be a young starting rotation.

He'll begin the year hitting seventh in the lineup, though that doesn't feel like his end-game. If he begins to make good on his power potential, he may very well move up the lineup, especially if Maikel Franco doesn't figure things out. The Phillies will likely have a relatively long leash on Alfaro this year, but if he struggles, he could move down in the lineup (or out of it altogether on some days).

8. J.P. Crawford – Shortstop

After Freddy Galvis was traded to the San Diego Padres in December, one thing became clear – Matt Klentak and the Phillies are ready to get an extended look at their long-time top prospect at his natural position.

To say Crawford had a strange 2017 season would be an understatement. Once one of the top five prospects in the sport, Crawford followed up a disappointing first stint at Triple-A in 2016 with an even more disappointing first-half in 2017. Prior to the All-Star Break, Crawford slashed .211/.328/.330 in 279 at-bats, leading many to wonder if Crawford had any substantive MLB future. However, he roared back in the second-half, .287/.385/.513, while also hitting nine home runs and walking 30 times in just shy of 200 at-bats.

It's hard to read too much into the 23-game stint Crawford had at the major leagues in September. Clearly, Crawford is going to have to hit better than .214, which was the average that he posted in his first 70 major league at-bats. He did post an incredible 18.4 percent walk percentage in his first 70 at-bats, which is one of the reasons that the Phillies like him so much. He's not going to continue to walk at that rate, but Steamer projects that he'll walk 69 times this year, which would be more than any player on the team did in 2017.

In a perfect world, Crawford will probably become a player that hits at .260, walks a lot and becomes an elite fielding shortstop. In 2018, a realistic perfect scenario may be that he continues to walk at a high clip, hits .245 and continues to develop some more pop. Those upset that the team moved on from Galvis will circle any time that Crawford slips up in the field in 2018. It's important to remember, however, that while Galvis always had high upside as a fielder, he wasn't especially consistent in making plays that an MLB shortstop should make easily earlier on his time as a starter. Crawford may fall into that category in 2018.

9. Aaron Nola – Starting pitcher

It feels like we've been waiting for this moment for a few years, but barring a catastrophe or major trade, this should be the year that Nola finally gets the ball on Opening Day.

Tony La Russa would often hit his pitcher in the No. 8 hole, because he "wanted to get his best hitter more at-bats." With someone like Crawford – who doesn't hit for a high average but will still get on base at a fair clip because of the pace that he walks at – it doesn't seem impossible that Gabe Kapler will dabble with the idea of occasionally hitting Crawford in the No. 9 hole, and having his pitcher hit in the No. 8 hole. The aforementioned La Russa did it frequently, as does Joe Maddon of the Chicago Cubs, who Kapler is fond of.

Perhaps I'm underestimating him, but the thought here is that Kapler may ease into having the pitcher hit anywhere but the bottom of the lineup. Frankly, there will probably be a ton of different lineup combinations early in the season as he feels things out.

More Nuggets

Baseball Musings has an interesting tool that allows you to build the best lineup possible. You simply punch in a player's OBA and slugging percentage and it builds you the 30 most effective lineup combinations.

Given the goal of this article, I used this tool to try to build the best Phillies lineup. The first lineup is based off of each player's 2017 production at the major league level. It's important to remember that many of these players didn't have full seasons at the major league level: