By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor
If early returns in 2018 are any indication, the BBWAA's Hall of Fame ballots figure to be kinder to former Philadelphia Phillies than they have in recent years.
That doesn't mean the Phillies will have four new Hall of Famers in 2018 – but it does mean each of their notable former players on the ballot could receive more votes in 2018 than they did in 2017.
Jim Thome, by default, will have more votes on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2018 than he did in 2017, because it is his first year on the ballot. Currently, 36.8 percent of the 2018 ballots have been made public to Ryan Thibodaux, and 94.9 percent of those ballots have cast votes for Thome. Thome, who is one of nine players in MLB history with over 600 home runs, needs just 63.4 percent of votes on remaining ballots to become a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Thome's former Phillies teammate, Scott Rolen, is also in his first year on the ballot. Even if the former National League Rookie of the Year received a vote on every remaining ballot, he wouldn't be elected to the Hall of Fame this year. Still, Rolen has received 10.3 percent of votes on public ballots. That puts him well above the five percent needed to stay on the ballot for another year, and he's likely to get enough votes from remaining voters to do so.
Last month, I wrote on why I believe that Rolen should be elected to the Hall of Fame. The gist of that piece is that the seven-time All-Star – who also won eight Gold Glove Awards – is over the threshold for the average advanced statistics of Hall of Fame third basemen:
Rk | Name | WAR | WAR7 | JAWS | Yrs | From | To | ASG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mike Schmidt HOF | 106.5 | 58.5 | 82.5 | 18 | 1972 | 1989 | 12 |
2 | Eddie Mathews HOF | 96.4 | 54.4 | 75.4 | 17 | 1952 | 1968 | 12 |
3 | Wade Boggs HOF | 91.1 | 56.2 | 73.6 | 18 | 1982 | 1999 | 12 |
4 | Adrian Beltre | 93.9 | 49.7 | 71.8 | 20 | 1998 | 2017 | 4 |
5 | George Brett HOF | 88.4 | 53.2 | 70.8 | 21 | 1973 | 1993 | 13 |
6 | Chipper Jones | 85.0 | 46.6 | 65.8 | 19 | 1993 | 2012 | 8 |
7 | Ron Santo HOF | 70.4 | 53.8 | 62.1 | 15 | 1960 | 1974 | 9 |
8 | Brooks Robinson HOF | 78.4 | 45.8 | 62.1 | 23 | 1955 | 1977 | 18 |
9 | Paul Molitor HOF | 75.4 | 39.6 | 57.5 | 21 | 1978 | 1998 | 7 |
10 | Scott Rolen | 70.0 | 43.5 | 56.8 | 17 | 1996 | 2012 | 7 |
11 | Edgar Martinez | 68.3 | 43.6 | 56.0 | 18 | 1987 | 2004 | 7 |
Avg of 13 HOFers at this position | 67.5 | 42.8 | 55.2 |
Though Rolen is a ways away from receiving the 75 percent of votes necessary for election, he should be encouraged by the progress that both Larry Walker and Edgar Martinez have made on the ballot. Walker has received 41 percent of votes thus far, which is nearly double the 21.9 percent of the vote that he garnered just a year ago. Walker has been on the ballot since 2011 and hovered around 22 percent each year. Since then, his numbers haven't changed, but the grassroots Hall of Fame case that's been built for him clearly has caused some voters to look deeper into his case. If the public ballots currently available decided the Hall of Fame class, Martinez would be in with over 80 percent of the vote. This comes after him receiving 36.2 percent of the vote in 2010, his first year on the ballot. Again, the internet has clearly helped the cases of some of the game's more underappreciated recent greats, and Rolen may be the next in line to receive that treatment.
Another candidate for a grassroots surge up the ballot is former Phillies closer Billy Wagner, who received 10.2 percent of the vote in 2017. Wagner has received just under 11 percent of the vote thus far, which should allow him to stay on the ballot for another year.
Wagner has an interesting case. While Trevor Hoffman, who finished his career with 122 more saves than Wagner, is likely to earn induction into the Hall of Fame this year, Wagner's case hasn't taken off yet. Perhaps there's something wrong with that, because while Wagner doesn't have the same longevity argument that Hoffman does, he had a 16-year career (and probably could have played for longer had he decided to) and has a lower career ERA, FIP and xFIP than Hoffman (per FanGraphs).
After the results of the 2017 Hall of Fame election were released, Wagner suggested to SportsTalkPhilly.com that perhaps more than just writers should vote on the Hall of Fame.