With Yelich potentially in play, does that route make sense for Phillies?

By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor

The Miami Marlins may have a new ownership group and face of their organization, but they don't seem to be deviating from the firesales that previous regimes conducted. After trading Giancarlo Stanton to the New York Yankees this past weekend, the team is reportedly sending two-time All-Star Marcell Ozuna to the St. Louis Cardinals. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports says for the right price – one he admits will be very high – the Marlins are also willing to part with Christian Yelich, who the Philadelphia Phillies have long been thought to have an affinity for.

[Editor's note: Since the publication of this article, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reported that the Marlins are likely to try to build around Yelich, but would listen to offers if they were blown away. Bob Nightengale of USA Today said that while Yelich would probably prefer to be dealt, the Marlins don't plan to do so. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN said the Marlins do not plan to move him. So there are conflicting reports, which often happens at this time of year.]

No one is debating Yelich's talent, or the value of his extremely team-friendly contract that can run through 2022. However, it is fair to ask if making a major trade for him would be the best move to allow the Phillies to return to contention.

Yelich, who recently turned 26, does fit the mold of the outfielder that the Phillies like – he walks at a strong clip and is capable of playing all three outfield positions. It's not hard to imagine why general manager Matt Klentak and a progressive front-office view him as their perfect scenario center fielder. The organization, presumably, is also aware that adding an external starting outfielder – both in the short-term and the long-term – is more of a luxury addition.

The Phillies could comfortably go into 2018 with the starting outfield of Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera and Nick Williams. None of the three are without flaws, but it would give the Phillies a cheap and probably pretty productive trio in the outfield. It's entirely possible any of those three are ultimately used in a trade or that the Phillies view Altherr or Williams as more of a fourth outfielder on a contending team. Even if that case, the Phillies have help on the way. They've spent their last three first round picks – Cornelius Randolph in 2015, Mickey Moniak in 2016 and Adam Haseley in 2017 – on outfielders. Even closer to the major league level are potentially productive pieces Roman Quinn, Dylan Cozens and Andrew Pullin, all of whom could factor into the 2018 season.

What the Phillies really need, both in the short and long-term, is front-line starting pitching. Aaron Nola is the only person at the major league that fits that description. Top prospect Sixto Sanchez, who a scout compared to Pedro Martinez, is expected to fit that description, but he's still a few years away from the majors. He's not going anywhere in any trade. The group of Franklyn Kilome, Adonis Medina, JoJo Romero and Ranger Suarez seemingly will help the Phillies to build a playoff-caliber rotation. Either they will reach the major league level and be in the rotation, or they will help the Phillies to acquire a controllable starting pitcher – think Gerrit Cole, Marcus Stroman, Chris Archer or Michael Fulmer.

It feels very unlikely that the Phillies wouldn't have to tap into those resources to acquire Yelich. So yes, they would have an All-Star caliber outfielder in Yelich. But any trade package used to acquire him would be one that couldn't be used to acquire a front-line starting pitcher, or simply have to pitch at the major league level. And they would be used to improve the outfield, which is already one of the strengths of the Phillies organization.

Are there examples of position players that it would make sense to part with this pitching depth for? Sure, but they are limited. For example, if the Phillies were able to acquire Manny Machado from the Baltimore Orioles and work out a long-term contract extension, it would be worth parting with just about anyone in the minor league system other than Sanchez. Besides the fact that Machado is simply better than Yelich, whether he wants to play shortstop of third base, he plays a much less replaceable position than Yelich.

Outfielders truly are the most replaceable players on the field. Think of the 2007-2011 Phillies. During a five year stretch, albeit one that was the most successful one in franchise history, the Phillies had Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, Aaron Rowand, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence all play for their team. As mentioned earlier in this piece, the Phillies have strong organizational outfield depth as it is. Should they need more in the future, there will always be productive, yet replaceable pieces like Ibanez and Burrell around. Heck, J.D. Martinez, who hit 45 home runs in 2017, was available for a pretty affordable price this past trade deadline.

If the Phillies want to make a major transaction involving an outfielder, Washington Nationals star Bryce Harper can become a free-agent after 2018, assuming the Nationals don't sign him to an extension before then. Harper will have plenty of suitors – which means he'll likely get a record contract – but acquiring him wouldn't entail trading a bulk of the best players in your farm system. Klentak, should he choose, can make a play for Harper next offseason.

If signing Harper doesn't work out, the following outfielders can all become free-agents after the 2018 season: Charlie Blackmon, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock and Marwin Gonzalez. If all things were equal, you would choose to have Yelich over any of the names mentioned, given his age and affordable contract. But all things aren't equal. His age and affordable contract mean he would cost you a bounty to acquire, which any free-agent wouldn't.

Making a major trade for Yelich would undoubtedly make the Phillies more exciting in 2018. Even beyond 2018, they would have an All-Star caliber outfielder for the foreseeable future, one that likely hasn't reached his peak yet. But if their goal in making a major trade is to build a team that lands on a parade float, they may be best investing their available resources into the starting rotation.

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