Why Ryan Miller Should Be a Target For Flyers

(Kate Frese/Sports Talk Philly)

By Dan Heaning, Sports Talk Philly staff writer 

Before last season, the Philadelphia Flyers seemed to have two quality goaltenders to backstop the team. After an underwhelming performance by both netminders, the team is in the market for a starter.

However, the market is already drying up.

Two weeks ago, the Carolina Hurricanes traded a third round pick for Scott Darling’s rights then signed him to a four-year, $16.6 million deal.

Then last week the Dallas Stars traded a fourth round pick to the Los Angeles Kings for Ben Bishop’s rights. Soon afterward, the Stars and Bishop agreed to a six-year, $29.5 million contract.

With Bishop and Darling gone, the goaltending market is bereft of its top target and most intriguing backup-to-starter option. Now, the Flyers are left with either standing pat by re-signing Steve Mason or looking at one of the few goalies left in unrestricted free agency.

Those goalies who played in a starting role that are left are Peter Budaj – who played well for the Kings last season but probably shouldn’t be a team's starting netminder on purpose — Brian Elliott – who split time with Chad Johnson and neither really seized the job in Calgary — and Ryan Miller — who played for the second-worst team in the Western Conference the Vancouver Canucks.

The obvious choice here is between Mason and Miller as pairing Anders Nilsson or Keith Kinkaid with Michal Neuvirth would result in a similarly questionable goaltending duo.

While Mason has been one of the best goalies to play for the Flyers since general manager Ron Hextall laced up the skates, bringing Miller aboard makes more sense for the Orange and Black.

First of all, Miller outplayed Mason last season on a worse team. Miller’s medium and high-danger save percentages were better than Mason’s last season. In fact, Miller’s high danger save percentage outdoes Mason’s for the last three seasons.

Miller had marginally better Corsi and expected Fenwick save percentages, but his adjusted Fenwick save percentage (.55) was exceptionally better than Mason’s (.11). Meanwhile, Miller’s goals saved above average smoked Mason’s, as Miller posted 13.14 goals saved while Mason allowed 3.6 goals below expectation despite seeing a greater average shot distance — Mason’s 35 to Miller’s 30.

Miller also has far better rebound control than Mason. In the last four seasons, Miller has given up between 60-79 rebounds while Mason has given up 80-109. Last season saw both goalies have down years in handling second opportunities as Miller gave up 79 and Mason surrendered 109. In the last four seasons, Miller has given up from 17 to 30 fewer rebounds. If Miller could repeat that level of control in Philly, that would be a lot less strain on the Flyers blueline.

Contrary to what you would expect, Miller is not regressing. In terms of goals saved above average, Miller posted his best total in 2015-16 and his third-best last year. His high-danger save percentage during his time in Vancouver is in step with his numbers when he was arguably the best goaltender on the planet from 2009 to 2011. He just hasn't gotten any attention for it because the Canucks are something of a dumpster fire at the moment.

The Flyers will have the cap space to sign Miller to a contract in the range of $6 million annually or slightly higher. However, with a cornucopia of young goalies looking to emerge, they won’t want to give much out much term.

At 36 years old, Miller would likely be more willing to sign a short-term deal and serve as a stopgap for the next two years or so while the likes of Felix Sandstrom and Carter Hart ready themselves for a jump to the NHL. He could still handle 50 to 55 games, so if the Flyers were to lose Neuvirth to expansion or deal him later sometime during the season, Anthony Stolarz could be eased into a backup role.

On the other hand, Mason will demand a smaller cap hit and salary, but he will likely be seeking more of a long-term deal.

So the question becomes what would Hextall rather do — sign an aging Miller to a two-year, $13 million to $14 million contract or lock up Mason for four or five seasons for $25 million or more?

With the goalies the team has in the pipeline, this is an easy choice: sign Miller. Eat a few years with an aging goalie with a high cap hit and see if he can be an upgrade in net. If not, Hart or Sandstrom — or even both — will be ready by the time the contract is up.

Those extra two or three years on a deal for Mason could create a number of issues for the team. If Sandstrom and Hart are ready and Mason is still under contract, Hextall will have to find a willing trade partner for one or two of them. If he can’t, Mason could find himself being an expensive backup for one of the young players or back in a platoon situation.

The flip side of that is the team will have some security and a veteran presence between the pipes while an inexperienced goaltender finds his way through the game. But such goalies can usually be found during free agency for a lower cost or a prospect with a shorter ceiling like Stolarz can be groomed into a backup role during the two-year stopgap timeframe.

Also, Mason can find a better fit elsewhere. The Calgary Flames are an up-and-coming team with a solid defensive core and $20 million in cap space. Their one hiccup was in net and both of their goalies are set to hit free agency. At 28, Mason could sign there for more term, equal or greater salary, become the unquestioned starter and fit into the long-term plans of the team. Those are all things the Flyers are not likely to give Mason to his satisfaction.

The Flyers are not comfortable rolling into next season with Stolarz and Neuvirth as their goaltending pair and the front office doesn’t seem to agree with Mason’s views on goalie platoons. Meanwhile, before free agency has even begun the market for netminders is growing scarce.

With all that in mind, it should be Miller who backstops the Flyers next season as he fits the organization’s needs for the present without impeding on the future. He'll eat up a lot of salary, but in a short amount of time. He won't be a gamble like handing the reins to Kinkaid, Nilsson or Philipp Grubauer.

His numbers don't indicate any regression. If that remains the case, he'll bring stability to the Flyers crease.

But make no mistake about it, this is a short-term thing. Give him two years and move on to a recent draft pick like Hart or Sandstrom. If Hextall is looking for a goalie to rely on until those kids are ready, he should open up the checkbook for the 36-year-old veteran.